Drug prescribing patterns in the General Medical Services Scheme in Ireland and projected costs to 2026

The primary objective is to investigate the main factors contributing to GMS expenditure on pharmaceutical prescribing and projecting this expenditure to 2026. This study is located in the area of pharmacoeconomic cost containment and projections literature. The thesis has five main aims: 1. To determine the main factors contributing to GMS expenditure on pharmaceutical prescribing. 2. To develop a model to project GMS prescribing expenditure in five year intervals to 2026, using 2006 Central Statistics Office (CSO) Census data and 2007 Health Service Executive{Primary Care Reimbursement Service (HSE{PCRS) sample data. 3. To develop a model to project GMS prescribing expenditure in five year intervals to 2026, using 2012 HSE{PCRS population data, incorporating cost containment measures, and 2011 CSO Census data. 4. To investigate the impact of demographic factors and the pharmacology of drugs (Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC)) on GMS expenditure. 5. To explore the consequences of GMS policy changes on prescribing expenditure and behaviour between 2008 and 2014. The thesis is centered around three published articles and is located between the end of a booming Irish economy in 2007, a recession from 2008{2013, to the beginning of a recovery in 2014. The literature identified a number of factors influencing pharmaceutical expenditure, including population growth, population aging, changes in drug utilisation and drug therapies, age, gender and location. The literature identified the methods previously used in predictive modelling and consequently, the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) model was used to simulate projected expenditures to 2026. Also, the literature guided the use of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression in determining demographic and pharmacology factors influencing prescribing expenditure. The study commences against a backdrop of growing GMS prescribing costs, which has risen from e250 million in 1998 to over e1 billion by 2007. Using a sample 2007 HSE{PCRS prescribing data (n=192,000) and CSO population data from 2008, (Conway et al., 2014) estimated GMS prescribing expenditure could rise to e2 billion by2026. The cogency of these findings was impacted by the global economic crisis of 2008, which resulted in a sharp contraction in the Irish economy, mounting fiscal deficits resulting in Ireland's entry to a bailout programme. The sustainability of funding community drug schemes, such as the GMS, came under the spotlight of the EU, IMF, ECB (Trioka), who set stringent targets for reducing drug costs, as conditions of the bailout programme. Cost containment measures included: the introduction of income eligibility limits for GP visit cards and medical cards for those aged 70 and over, introduction of co{payments for prescription items, reductions in wholesale mark{up and pharmacy dispensing fees. Projections for GMS expenditure were reevaluated using 2012 HSE{PCRS prescribing population data and CSO population data based on Census 2011. Taking into account both cost containment measures and revised population predictions, GMS expenditure is estimated to increase by 64%, from e1.1 billion in 2016 to e1.8 billion by 2026, (ConwayLenihan and Woods, 2015). In the final paper, a cross{sectional study was carried out on HSE{PCRS population prescribing database (n=1.63 million claimants) to investigate the impact of demographic factors, and the pharmacology of the drugs, on GMS prescribing expenditure. Those aged over 75 (ẞ = 1:195) and cardiovascular prescribing (ẞ = 1:193) were the greatest contributors to annual GMS prescribing costs. Respiratory drugs (Montelukast) recorded the highest proportion and expenditure for GMS claimants under the age of 15. Drugs prescribed for the nervous system (Escitalopram, Olanzapine and Pregabalin) were highest for those between 16 and 64 years with cardiovascular drugs (Statins) were highest for those aged over 65. Females are more expensive than males and are prescribed more items across the four ATC groups, except among children under 11, (ConwayLenihan et al., 2016). This research indicates that growth in the proportion of the elderly claimants and associated levels of cardiovascular prescribing, particularly for statins, will present difficulties for Ireland in terms of cost containment. Whilst policies aimed at cost containment (co{payment charges, generic substitution, reference pricing, adjustments to GMS eligibility) can be used to curtail expenditure, health promotional programs and educational interventions should be given equal emphasis. Also policies intended to affect physicians prescribing behaviour include guidelines, information (about price and less expensive alternatives) and feedback, and the use of budgetary restrictions could yield savings.

Economic evaluations of clinical pharmacy services in Ireland, 2007-2015

Introduction The concept of this thesis was driven by stagnation within the Irish healthcare system. Multiple reports from pharmacy organisations had outlined possible future directions for the profession but progress was minimal, especially in comparison with other countries. The author’s directive was to evaluate the economic impact of a series of clinical pharmacy services (CPS) in hospital and community settings. Methods A systematic review of economic evaluations of clinical pharmacy services in hospital patients was undertaken to gain insight into recent research in the field. Eligible studies were evaluated using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS), to establish the quality, consistency and transparency of relevant research. A retrospective analysis of an internal hospital pharmacy interventions database was conducted. A method first described by Nesbit et al. was implemented to estimate the level of cost avoidance achieved. A cost-effectiveness analysis based on data from a randomised controlled trial of a pharmacist-supervised patient self-testing (PST) of warfarin therapy is presented. Outcome measure was the incremental cost associated with six months of intervention management. A similar cost-effectiveness analysis based on previously published RCT data was used to evaluate a novel structured pharmacist review of medication in older hospitalised patients. Cost-effectiveness analysis was presented in the form of an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). An ICER is an additional cost per unit effect, in the case of this study, the cost of preventing an additional non-trivial ADR in hospital. A method described by Preaud et al. was adapted to estimate the clinical and economic benefit gained from vaccination of patients by a community pharmacist in Ireland in 2013/14. Sample demographic data was obtained from a national chain of community pharmacies and applied to overall national vaccination data. Results Systematic review identified twenty studies which were eligible for inclusion. Overall, pharmacist interventions had a positive impact on hospital budgets. Only three studies (15%) were deemed to be “good-quality” studies. No ‘novel’ clinical pharmacist intervention was identified during the course of this review. Analysis of internal hospital database identified 4,257 interventions documented on 2,147 individual patients over a 12 month period. Substantial cost avoidance of €710,000 was generated over a 1 year period from the perspective of the health care provider. Mean cost avoidance of €166 per intervention was generated. The cost of providing these interventions was €82,000. Substantial net cost-benefits of €626,279 and a cost-benefit ratio of 8.64 : 1 were generated based on this evaluation of pharmacist interventions. Results from an evaluation of a novel pharmacist-led form of warfarin management indicated indicated that on a per patient basis, PST was slightly more expensive than established anticoagulant management. On a per patient basis over a six month period, PST resulted in an incremental cost of €59.08 in comparison with routine care. Overall cost of managing a patient through pharmacist-supervised PST for a six month period is €226.45. However, for this increase in cost a clinically significant improvement in care was provided. Patients achieved a significantly higher time in therapeutic range during the PST arm in comparison with routine care, (72 ± 19.7% vs 59 ± 13.5%). Difference in overall cost was minimal and PST was the dominant strategy in some scenarios examined during sensitivity analysis. Structured pharmacist review of medication was determined to be dominant in comparison to usual pharmaceutical care. Even if the healthcare payer was unwilling to pay any money for the prevention of an ADR, the intervention strategy is still likely to be cost-effective (probability of being determined cost-effective = 0.707). Implementation of pharmacist-led influenza vaccination has resulted in substantial clinical and economic benefits to the healthcare system. The majority of patients (64.9%) who availed of this service had identifiable influenza-related risk factors. Of patients with influenza-related risk factors, age ≥65 year was the most commonly cited risk factor. Pharmacist vaccination services averted a total of 848 influenza cases across all age groups during the 2013/2014 influenza season. Due to receipt of vaccination in a pharmacy setting, 444 influenza-related GP visits were prevented. In terms of more serious influenza-associated events, 11 hospitalisations and five influenza-related deaths were averted. Costs averted were approximately €305,000. These were principally wider societal-related costs associated with lost productivity. Conclusion Overall, clinical pharmacy services are adding value to the Irish healthcare system in both hospital and community settings, but provision of additional funding for new services would enable them to offer a great deal more.

Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Reasoning about trust, entrepreneurial services, and the virtual team

This Portfolio of Exploration (PoE) tracks a transformative learning developmental journey that is directed at changing meaning making structures and mental models within an innovation practice. The explicit purpose of the Portfolio is to develop new and different perspectives that enable the handling of new and more complex phenomena through self transformation and increased emotional intelligence development. The Portfolio provides a response to the question: ‘What are the key determinants that enable a Virtual Team (VT) to flourish where flourishing means developing and delivering on the firm’s innovative imperatives?’ Furthermore, the PoE is structured as an investigation into how higher order meaning making promotes ‘entrepreneurial services’ within an intra-firm virtual team, with a secondary aim to identify how reasoning about trust influence KGPs to exchange knowledge. I have developed a framework which specifically focuses on the effectiveness of any firms’ Virtual Team (VT) through transforming the meaning making of the VT participants. I hypothesized it is the way KGPs make meaning (reasoning about trust) which differentiates the firm as a growing firm in the sense of Penrosean resources: ‘inducement to expand and a limit of expansion’ (1959). Reasoning about trust is used as a higher order meaning-making concept in line with Kegan’s (1994) conception of complex meaning making, which is the combining of ideas and data in ways that transform meaning and implicates participants to find new ways of knowledge generation. Simply, it is the VT participants who develop higher order meaning making that hold the capabilities to transform the firm from within, providing a unique competitive advantage that enables the firm to grow.

The utility of survey and administrative data to generate information for research and outcomes-based oral health services development

The aim of this research, which focused on the Irish adult population, was to generate information for policymakers by applying statistical analyses and current technologies to oral health administrative and survey databases. Objectives included identifying socio-demographic influences on oral health and utilisation of dental services, comparing epidemiologically-estimated dental treatment need with treatment provided, and investigating the potential of a dental administrative database to provide information on utilisation of services and the volume and types of treatment provided over time. Information was extracted from the claims databases for the Dental Treatment Benefit Scheme (DTBS) for employed adults and the Dental Treatment Services Scheme (DTSS) for less-well-off adults, the National Surveys of Adult Oral Health, and the 2007 Survey of Lifestyle Attitudes and Nutrition in Ireland. Factors associated with utilisation and retention of natural teeth were analysed using count data models and logistic regression. The chi-square test and the student’s t-test were used to compare epidemiologically-estimated need in a representative sample of adults with treatment provided. Differences were found in dental care utilisation and tooth retention by Socio-Economic Status. An analysis of the five-year utilisation behaviour of a 2003 cohort of DTBS dental attendees revealed that age and being female were positively associated with visiting annually and number of treatments. Number of adults using the DTBS increased, and mean number of treatments per patient decreased, between 1997 and 2008. As a percentage of overall treatments, restorations, dentures, and extractions decreased, while prophylaxis increased. Differences were found between epidemiologically-estimated treatment need and treatment provided for those using the DTBS and DTSS. This research confirms the utility of survey and administrative data to generate knowledge for policymakers. Public administrative databases have not been designed for research purposes, but they have the potential to provide a wealth of knowledge on treatments provided and utilisation patterns.

The cloud personal assistant for providing services to mobile clients

This paper introduces the original concept of a cloud personal assistant, a cloud service that manages the access of mobile clients to cloud services. The cloud personal assistant works in the cloud on behalf of its owner: it discovers services, invokes them, stores the results and history, and delivers the results to the mobile user immediately or when the user requests them. Preliminary experimental results that demonstrate the concept are included.

Optimised crystal morphologies for active pharmaceutical ingredients and related studies

The majority of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are crystalline solids in their pure forms. Crystalline solids have definable morphologies, i.e. shape and size. Crystal morphology is determined by both the internal structure of the crystals and external factors during growth from solution. The morphology of a crystal batch can affect key processes during manufacturing. Companies generally accept whatever morphology the manufacturing process provides and deal with any subsequent problems by costly trouble‒shooting. Rational design of optimised morphologies for crystalline pharmaceutical solids would be a very significant technical and commercial advance. Chapter one introduces the concept of crystal nucleation and growth. The phenomenon of polymorphism alongside the causes and impact is discussed. A summary of the scope of instrumentation used in the investigation of crystal polymorphism and morphology, including crystal size distribution (CSD), is also included. Chapter two examines the research carried out during an exploration of the optimum crystallisation parameters of phenacetin. Following a morphological study, the impact this induces on particle density and flow properties is examined. The impact of impurities on the crystallisation properties of phenacetin is investigated. Significantly, the location of impurities within individual crystals is also studied. The third chapter describes an industrial collaboration looking at the resolution and polymorphic study of trometamol and lysine salts of ketoprofen and 2‒phenylpropionic acid (2‒PPA). Chapter four incorporates a solid state study on three separate compounds: 2‒chloro‒4‒nitroaniline, 4‒hydroxy‒N‒phenylbenzenesulfonamide and N‒acetyl‒D‒glucosamine‒6‒O‒sulfate. 2‒Chloro‒4‒nitroaniline and 4‒hydroxy‒N‒phenylbenzenesulfonamide both produced interesting, extreme morphologies which warranted further investigation as part of a collaborative study. Following a summarisation of results in chapter five, chapter six contains the full experimental details, incorporating spectral and other analytical data for all compounds synthesised during the course of the research.

CloudNeg: An autonomous multi issue negotiation system, with preference elicitation component, for trading cloud services

Cloud services provide its users with flexible resource provisioning. But in the current market, a user has to choose from a limited set of configurations at a fixed price. This paper presents an autonomous negotiation system termed CloudNeg for negotiating cloud services. CloudNeg provides buyers and sellers of cloud services with autonomous agents to negotiate on the specifications of a cloud instance, including price, on their behalf. These agents elicit their buyers’ time preferences and use them in negotiations. Further, this paper presents two artifacts: a negotiation algorithm and a prototype which together form CloudNeg.

Delivering mobile cloud services to the user: description, discovery, and consumption

The mobile cloud computing paradigm can offer relevant and useful services to the users of smart mobile devices. Such public services already exist on the web and in cloud deployments, by implementing common web service standards. However, these services are described by mark-up languages, such as XML, that cannot be comprehended by non-specialists. Furthermore, the lack of common interfaces for related services makes discovery and consumption difficult for both users and software. The problem of service description, discovery, and consumption for the mobile cloud must be addressed to allow users to benefit from these services on mobile devices. This paper introduces our work on a mobile cloud service discovery solution, which is utilised by our mobile cloud middleware, Context Aware Mobile Cloud Services (CAMCS). The aim of our approach is to remove complex mark-up languages from the description and discovery process. By means of the Cloud Personal Assistant (CPA) assigned to each user of CAMCS, relevant mobile cloud services can be discovered and consumed easily by the end user from the mobile device. We present the discovery process, the architecture of our own service registry, and service description structure. CAMCS allows services to be used from the mobile device through a user's CPA, by means of user defined tasks. We present the task model of the CPA enabled by our solution, including automatic tasks, which can perform work for the user without an explicit request.

Preserving patent policy space and securing access to medicines in developing countries: the role of states and pharmaceutical corporations

This thesis examines the tension between patent rights and the right to health and it recognizes patent rights on pharmaceutical products as one of the factors responsible for the problem of lack of access to affordable medicines in developing countries. The thesis contends that, in order to preserve their patent policy space and secure access to affordable medicines for their citizens, developing countries should incorporate a model of human rights into the design, implementation, interpretation, and enforcement of their national patent laws. The thesis provides a systematic analysis of court decisions from four key developing countries (Brazil, India, Kenya, and South Africa) and it assesses how the national courts in these countries resolve the tension between patent rights and the right to health. Essentially, this thesis demonstrates how a model of human rights can be incorporated into the adjudication of disputes involving patent rights in national courts. Focusing specifically on Brazil, the thesis equally demonstrates how policy makers and law makers at the national level can incorporate a model of human rights into the design or amendment of their national patent law. This thesis also contributes to the ongoing debate in the field of business and human rights with regard to the mechanisms that can be used to hold corporate actors accountable for their human rights responsibilities. This thesis recognizes that, while states bear the primary responsibility to respect, protect, and fulfil the right to health, corporate actors such as pharmaceutical companies also have a baseline responsibility to respect the right to health. This thesis therefore contends that pharmaceutical companies that own patent rights on pharmaceutical products can be held accountable for their right to health responsibilities at the national level through the incorporation of a model of civic participation into a country’s patent law system.