Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

The impact of new public management on the roles of elected councillors, management and the community sector in Irish local government: a case study of Cork County Council

The fundamental aim of this thesis is to examine the effect of New Public Management (NPM) on the traditional roles of elected representatives, management and community activists in Irish local government. This will be achieved through a case study analysis of one local authority, Cork County Council. NPM promises greater democracy in decision-making. Therefore, one can hypothesise that the roles of the three key groupings identified will become more influenced by principles of participatory decision-making. Thus, a number of related questions will be addressed by this work, such as, have the local elected representatives been empowered by NPM? Has a managerial revolution taken place? Has local democracy been enhanced by more effective community participation? It will be seen in chapter 2 that these questions have not been adequately addressed to date in NPM literature. The three groups identified can be regarded as stakeholders although the researcher is cautious in using this term because of its value-laden nature. Essentially, in terms of Cork County Council, stakeholders can be defined as decision-makers and people within the organization and its environment who are interested in or could be affected directly or indirectly by organizational performance. This is an all-embracing definition and includes all citizens, residents, community groups and client organizations. It is in this context that the term 'stakeholder' should be understood when it is occasionally used in this thesis. In this case, the perceptions of elected councilors, management and community representatives with regard to their changing roles are as significant as the changes themselves. The chapter begins with a brief account of the background to this research. This is followed by an explanation of the methodology which is used and then concludes with short statements about the remaining chapters in the thesis.

Explorations in a meaning making system: Kerry as an entrepreneurial platform and the equine sector as a cluster

This Portfolio is about the changes that can be supported and achieved through transformational education that impacts on personal, professional and organisational levels. Having lived through an era of tremendous change over the second half of the twentieth century and into the twenty-first the author has a great drawing board to contemplate in the context of professional career experience as an engineer. The ability to engage in ‘subject-object’ separation is the means by which Kegan (1994, 2009) explains that transformation takes place and the Essays in this Portfolio aim to support and bring about such change. Exploration of aspects of ‘Kerry’ is the material selected to both challenge support change in the way of knowing from being subject to certain information and knowledge that to being able to consider it more objectively. The task of being able to distance judgement about the economy and economic development of Kerry was facilitated by various readings around of a number of key thinkers including Kegan, Drucker, Porter and Penrose. The central themes of Kerry or the potential for economic development are built into each Essay. Essay One focuses on reflections of Kerry life - on Kerry people within and without Kerry - and events as they affected understandings of how people related to and worked with one another. These reflections formed the basis for transformational goals identified which required a shift from an engineering mindset to encompass an economics-based view. In Essay Two knowledge of economic concepts is developed by exploring the writings of Drucker, Penrose, and Porter with pertinence to considering economic development generally, and for Kerry in particular in the form of an ‘entrepreneurial platform’. The concepts and theories were the basis of explorations presented in Essays Three and Four. Essay Three focuses on Kerry’s potential for economic development give its current economic profile and includes results from interviews with selected businesses. Essay Four is an exercise in the application of Porter’s ‘Cluster’ concept to the equine sector.

The contribution of enterprise systems to core capabilities: the case of asset lifecycle management in the utilities sector

The desire to obtain competitive advantage is a motivator for implementing Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Systems (Adam & O’Doherty, 2000). However, while it is accepted that Information Technology (IT) in general may contribute to the improvement of organisational performance (Melville, Kraemer, & Gurbaxani, 2004), the nature and extent of that contribution is poorly understood (Jacobs & Bendoly, 2003; Ravichandran & Lertwongsatien, 2005). Accordingly, Henderson and Venkatraman (1993) assert that it is the application of business and IT capabilities to develop and leverage a firm’s IT resources for organisational transformation, rather than the acquired technological functionality, that secures competitive advantage for firms. Application of the Resource Based View of the firm (Wernerfelt, 1984) and Dynamic Capabilities Theory (DCT) (Teece and Pisano (1998) in particular) may yield insights into whether or not the use of Enterprise Systems enhances organisations’ core capabilities and thereby obtains competitive advantage, sustainable or otherwise (Melville et al., 2004). An operational definition of Core Capabilities that is independent of the construct of Sustained Competitive Advantage is formulated. This Study proposes and utilises an applied Dynamic Capabilities framework to facilitate the investigation of the role of Enterprise Systems. The objective of this research study is to investigate the role of Enterprise Systems in the Core Dynamic Capabilities of Asset Lifecycle Management. The Study explores the activities of Asset Lifecycle Management, the Core Dynamic Capabilities inherent in Asset Lifecycle Management and the footprint of Enterprise Systems on those Dynamic Capabilities. Additionally, the study explains the mechanisms by which Enterprise Systems sustain the Exploitability and the Renewability of those Core Dynamic Capabilities. The study finds that Enterprise Systems contribute directly to the Value, Exploitability and Renewability of Core Dynamic Capabilities and indirectly to their Inimitability and Non-substitutability. The study concludes by presenting an applied Dynamic Capabilities framework, which integrates Alter (1992)’s definition of Information Systems with Teece and Pisano (1998)’s model of Dynamic Capabilities to provide a robust diagnostic for determining the sustained value generating contributions of Enterprise Systems. These frameworks are used in the conclusions to frame the findings of the study. The conclusions go on to assert that these frameworks are free - standing and analytically generalisable, per Siggelkow (2007) and Yin (2003).

Bottom-up modelling of energy demand and technical energy savings potential in the Irish residential sector

The International Energy Agency has repeatedly identified increased end-use energy efficiency as the quickest, least costly method of green house gas mitigation, most recently in the 2012 World Energy Outlook, and urges all governing bodies to increase efforts to promote energy efficiency policies and technologies. The residential sector is recognised as a major potential source of cost effective energy efficiency gains. Within the EU this relative importance can be seen from a review of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAP) submitted by member states, which in all cases place a large emphasis on the residential sector. This is particularly true for Ireland whose residential sector has historically had higher energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the EU average and whose first NEEAP targeted 44% of the energy savings to be achieved in 2020 from this sector. This thesis develops a bottom-up engineering archetype modelling approach to analyse the Irish residential sector and to estimate the technical energy savings potential of a number of policy measures. First, a model of space and water heating energy demand for new dwellings is built and used to estimate the technical energy savings potential due to the introduction of the 2008 and 2010 changes to part L of the building regulations governing energy efficiency in new dwellings. Next, the author makes use of a valuable new dataset of Building Energy Rating (BER) survey results to first characterise the highly heterogeneous stock of existing dwellings, and then to estimate the technical energy savings potential of an ambitious national retrofit programme targeting up to 1 million residential dwellings. This thesis also presents work carried out by the author as part of a collaboration to produce a bottom-up, multi-sector LEAP model for Ireland. Overall this work highlights the challenges faced in successfully implementing both sets of policy measures. It points to the wide potential range of final savings possible from particular policy measures and the resulting high degree of uncertainty as to whether particular targets will be met and identifies the key factors on which the success of these policies will depend. It makes recommendations on further modelling work and on the improvements necessary in the data available to researchers and policy makers alike in order to develop increasingly sophisticated residential energy demand models and better inform policy.

Investment incentives and valuation of power sector infrastructure assets with increasing interconnection, intermittency and decarbonisation

This dissertation applies a variety of quantitative methods to electricity and carbon market data, utility company accounts data, capital and operating costs to analyse some of the challenges associated with investment in energy assets. In particular, three distinct research topics are analysed within this general theme: the efficiency of interconnector trading, the optimal sizing of intermittent wind facilities and the impact of carbon pricing on the cost of capital for investors are researched in successive sections.

Optimised crystal morphologies for active pharmaceutical ingredients and related studies

The majority of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are crystalline solids in their pure forms. Crystalline solids have definable morphologies, i.e. shape and size. Crystal morphology is determined by both the internal structure of the crystals and external factors during growth from solution. The morphology of a crystal batch can affect key processes during manufacturing. Companies generally accept whatever morphology the manufacturing process provides and deal with any subsequent problems by costly trouble‒shooting. Rational design of optimised morphologies for crystalline pharmaceutical solids would be a very significant technical and commercial advance. Chapter one introduces the concept of crystal nucleation and growth. The phenomenon of polymorphism alongside the causes and impact is discussed. A summary of the scope of instrumentation used in the investigation of crystal polymorphism and morphology, including crystal size distribution (CSD), is also included. Chapter two examines the research carried out during an exploration of the optimum crystallisation parameters of phenacetin. Following a morphological study, the impact this induces on particle density and flow properties is examined. The impact of impurities on the crystallisation properties of phenacetin is investigated. Significantly, the location of impurities within individual crystals is also studied. The third chapter describes an industrial collaboration looking at the resolution and polymorphic study of trometamol and lysine salts of ketoprofen and 2‒phenylpropionic acid (2‒PPA). Chapter four incorporates a solid state study on three separate compounds: 2‒chloro‒4‒nitroaniline, 4‒hydroxy‒N‒phenylbenzenesulfonamide and N‒acetyl‒D‒glucosamine‒6‒O‒sulfate. 2‒Chloro‒4‒nitroaniline and 4‒hydroxy‒N‒phenylbenzenesulfonamide both produced interesting, extreme morphologies which warranted further investigation as part of a collaborative study. Following a summarisation of results in chapter five, chapter six contains the full experimental details, incorporating spectral and other analytical data for all compounds synthesised during the course of the research.

Preserving patent policy space and securing access to medicines in developing countries: the role of states and pharmaceutical corporations

This thesis examines the tension between patent rights and the right to health and it recognizes patent rights on pharmaceutical products as one of the factors responsible for the problem of lack of access to affordable medicines in developing countries. The thesis contends that, in order to preserve their patent policy space and secure access to affordable medicines for their citizens, developing countries should incorporate a model of human rights into the design, implementation, interpretation, and enforcement of their national patent laws. The thesis provides a systematic analysis of court decisions from four key developing countries (Brazil, India, Kenya, and South Africa) and it assesses how the national courts in these countries resolve the tension between patent rights and the right to health. Essentially, this thesis demonstrates how a model of human rights can be incorporated into the adjudication of disputes involving patent rights in national courts. Focusing specifically on Brazil, the thesis equally demonstrates how policy makers and law makers at the national level can incorporate a model of human rights into the design or amendment of their national patent law. This thesis also contributes to the ongoing debate in the field of business and human rights with regard to the mechanisms that can be used to hold corporate actors accountable for their human rights responsibilities. This thesis recognizes that, while states bear the primary responsibility to respect, protect, and fulfil the right to health, corporate actors such as pharmaceutical companies also have a baseline responsibility to respect the right to health. This thesis therefore contends that pharmaceutical companies that own patent rights on pharmaceutical products can be held accountable for their right to health responsibilities at the national level through the incorporation of a model of civic participation into a country’s patent law system.