Hazard and early warning analysis based on domain specific modeling technologies

An aim of proactive risk management strategies is the timely identification of safety related risks. One way to achieve this is by deploying early warning systems. Early warning systems aim to provide useful information on the presence of potential threats to the system, the level of vulnerability of a system, or both of these, in a timely manner. This information can then be used to take proactive safety measures. The United Nation’s has recommended that any early warning system need to have four essential elements, which are the risk knowledge element, a monitoring and warning service, dissemination and communication and a response capability. This research deals with the risk knowledge element of an early warning system. The risk knowledge element of an early warning system contains models of possible accident scenarios. These accident scenarios are created by using hazard analysis techniques, which are categorised as traditional and contemporary. The assumption in traditional hazard analysis techniques is that accidents are occurred due to a sequence of events, whereas, the assumption of contemporary hazard analysis techniques is that safety is an emergent property of complex systems. The problem is that there is no availability of a software editor which can be used by analysts to create models of accident scenarios based on contemporary hazard analysis techniques and generate computer code that represent the models at the same time. This research aims to enhance the process of generating computer code based on graphical models that associate early warning signs and causal factors to a hazard, based on contemporary hazard analyses techniques. For this purpose, the thesis investigates the use of Domain Specific Modeling (DSM) technologies. The contributions of this thesis is the design and development of a set of three graphical Domain Specific Modeling languages (DSML)s, that when combined together, provide all of the necessary constructs that will enable safety experts and practitioners to conduct hazard and early warning analysis based on a contemporary hazard analysis approach. The languages represent those elements and relations necessary to define accident scenarios and their associated early warning signs. The three DSMLs were incorporated in to a prototype software editor that enables safety scientists and practitioners to create and edit hazard and early warning analysis models in a usable manner and as a result to generate executable code automatically. This research proves that the DSM technologies can be used to develop a set of three DSMLs which can allow user to conduct hazard and early warning analysis in more usable manner. Furthermore, the three DSMLs and their dedicated editor, which are presented in this thesis, may provide a significant enhancement to the process of creating the risk knowledge element of computer based early warning systems.

The human impacts of flower farm development in the Ethiopian Rift Valley region

The flower industry has a reputation for heavy usage of toxic chemicals and polluting the environment, enormous consumption of water, and poor working condition and low wage level in various parts of the world. It is unfortunate that this industry is adamant to change and repeating the same mistakes in Ethiopia. Because of this, - there is a growing concern among the general public and the international community about sustainability of the Ethiopian flower industry. Consequently, working conditions in the flower industry, impacts of wage income on the livelihoods of employees, coping strategies of low wage flower farm workers, impacts of flower farms on the livelihoods of local people and environmental pollution and conflict, were analysed. Both qualitative and quantitative research methods were employed. Four quantitative data sets: labour practice, employees’ income and expenditure, displaced household, and flower grower views survey were collected between 2010 and 2012. Robust regression to identify the determinants of wage levels, and Multinomial logit to identify the determinants of coping strategies of flower farm workers and displaced households were employed. The findings show the working conditions in flower farms are characterized by low wages, job insecurity and frequent violation of employees’ rights, and poor safety measures. To ensure survival of their family, land dispossessed households adopt a wide range of strategies including reduction in food consumption, sharing oxen, renting land, share cropping, and shifting staple food crops. Most experienced scarcity of water resources, lack of grazing areas, death of herds and reduced numbers of livestock due to water source pollution. Despite the Ethiopian government investment in attracting and creating conducive environment for investors, not much was accomplished when it comes to enforcing labour laws and environmental policies. Flower farm expansion in Ethiopia, as it is now, can be viewed as part of the global land and water grab and is not all inclusive and sustainable. Several recommendations are made to improve working conditions, maximize the benefits of flower industry to the society, and to the country at large.

A medical study on wireless inertial measurement technology as a tool for identifying patients at risk of death or imminent clinical deterioration

This paper provides a system description and preliminary results for an ongoing clinical study currently being carried out at the Mid-Western Regional Hospital, Nenagh, Ireland. The goal of the trial is to determine if wireless inertial measurement technology can be employed to identify elderly patients at risk of death or imminent clinical deterioration. The system measures cumulative movement and provides a score that will help provide a robust early warning to clinical staff of clinical deterioration. In addition the study examines some of the logistical barriers to the adoption of wearable wireless technology in front-line medical care.

Paracetamol metabolism in postoperative patients

Introduction: Despite being available for more than 50 years, there is still much to learn about paracetamol. Postoperative analgesic regimens that maintain good pain control while minimising exposure to opiates are beneficial and paracetamol has had a resurgence in this role since an IV formulation came to market. However there is evidence to suggest currently licensed doses are sub-therapeutic, especially when administered orally or rectally. Higher, unlicensed doses are now being advocated but, prior to this study, there was little evidence of their safety in surgical patients. When assessing drug safety in surgical patients a number of surgery and patient related factors influence results, and these must be considered. Methods: Major and intermediate surgical patients were recruited from two hospitals in Ireland. They were administered IV paracetamol at either 9g or 4g daily doses. In addition they received daily sub therapeutic doses of four other medicines to indicate the activity of their CYP450 enzymes that are involved in paracetamol metabolism. Urine and blood samples were collected to determine paracetamol pharmacokinetics, CYP450 activity, inflammatory cytokine concentration and for evidence of hepatotoxicity. Results: There were 33 patients that participated in the study. There was no evidence of clinically significant hepatotoxicity occurring in any patient during the study period, but there could have been changes following this time. Paracetamol disposition was shown to change, however half-life remained relatively constant. There were a number of changes to the way paracetamol was metabolised following surgery that maintained this rate of elimination. Conclusion: Doses of up to 9g per day given to major surgical patients for up to five days postoperatively produced no evidence of hepatotoxicity. Further research is warranted to determine the clinical utility of these higher doses

The effectiveness of using patient-reported outcome measures as quality improvement tools

Aim: To investigate the value of using PROMs as quality improvement tools. Methods: Two systematic reviews were undertaken. The first reviewed the quantitative literature on the impact of PROMs feedback and the second reviewed the qualitative literature on the use of PROMs in practice. These reviews informed the focus of the primary research. A cluster randomised controlled trial (PROFILE) examined the impact of providing peer benchmarked PROMs feedback to consultant orthopaedic surgeons on improving outcomes for hip replacement surgery. Qualitative interviews with surgeons in the intervention arm of the trial examined the view of and reactions to the feedback. Results: The quantitative review of 17 studies found weak evidence to suggest that providing PROMs feedback to professionals improves patient outcomes. The qualitative review of 16 studies identified the barriers and facilitators to the use of PROMs based on four themes: practical considerations, attitudes towards the data, methodological concerns and the impact of feedback on care. The PROFILE trial included 11 surgeons and 215 patients in the intervention arm, and 10 surgeons and 217 patients in the control arm. The trial found no significant difference in the Oxford Hip Score between the arms (-0.7, 95% CI -1.9-0.5, p=0.2). Interviews with surgeons revealed mixed opinions about the value of the PROMs feedback and the information did not promote explicit changes to their practice. Conclusion: It is important to use PROMs which have been validated for the specific purpose of performance measurement, consult with professionals when developing a PROMs feedback intervention, communicate with professionals about the objectives of the data collection, educate professionals on the properties and interpretation of the data, and support professionals in using the information to improve care. It is also imperative that the burden of data collection and dissemination of the information is minimised.