Hazard and early warning analysis based on domain specific modeling technologies

An aim of proactive risk management strategies is the timely identification of safety related risks. One way to achieve this is by deploying early warning systems. Early warning systems aim to provide useful information on the presence of potential threats to the system, the level of vulnerability of a system, or both of these, in a timely manner. This information can then be used to take proactive safety measures. The United Nation’s has recommended that any early warning system need to have four essential elements, which are the risk knowledge element, a monitoring and warning service, dissemination and communication and a response capability. This research deals with the risk knowledge element of an early warning system. The risk knowledge element of an early warning system contains models of possible accident scenarios. These accident scenarios are created by using hazard analysis techniques, which are categorised as traditional and contemporary. The assumption in traditional hazard analysis techniques is that accidents are occurred due to a sequence of events, whereas, the assumption of contemporary hazard analysis techniques is that safety is an emergent property of complex systems. The problem is that there is no availability of a software editor which can be used by analysts to create models of accident scenarios based on contemporary hazard analysis techniques and generate computer code that represent the models at the same time. This research aims to enhance the process of generating computer code based on graphical models that associate early warning signs and causal factors to a hazard, based on contemporary hazard analyses techniques. For this purpose, the thesis investigates the use of Domain Specific Modeling (DSM) technologies. The contributions of this thesis is the design and development of a set of three graphical Domain Specific Modeling languages (DSML)s, that when combined together, provide all of the necessary constructs that will enable safety experts and practitioners to conduct hazard and early warning analysis based on a contemporary hazard analysis approach. The languages represent those elements and relations necessary to define accident scenarios and their associated early warning signs. The three DSMLs were incorporated in to a prototype software editor that enables safety scientists and practitioners to create and edit hazard and early warning analysis models in a usable manner and as a result to generate executable code automatically. This research proves that the DSM technologies can be used to develop a set of three DSMLs which can allow user to conduct hazard and early warning analysis in more usable manner. Furthermore, the three DSMLs and their dedicated editor, which are presented in this thesis, may provide a significant enhancement to the process of creating the risk knowledge element of computer based early warning systems.

Cellular and in-vitro models to assess antioxidant activities of seaweed extracts and the potential use of the extracts as ingredients

Seaweeds contain a range of antioxidant compounds such as polyphenols, carotenoids, sulphated polysaccharides and vitamins and have the potential to be used as ingredients in neutraceuticals. The antioxidant activity of crude 60% methanol extracts prepared from five Irish seaweeds, Ascophyllum nodosum, Laminaria hyperborea, Pelvetia canaliculata, Fucus vesiculosus and Fucus serratus were examined using in-vitro assays and a cell model system to determine the antioxidant activity of the extracts and their ability to protect against H2O2 and tert-BOOH-induced DNA damage and alterations in cellular antioxidant status in the human adenocarcinoma, Caco-2 cell line. To optimise the extraction of antioxidant compounds from seaweeds, an accelerated solvent extraction (ASE®) was used in combination with food grade solvents. The antioxidant activity of these extracts against H2O2 and tert-BOOH-induced DNA damage and alterations in cellular antioxidant status was also assessed. Extracts that exhibited the highest antioxidant activity, A. nodosum (100% water and 80% ethanol extracts) and F. vesiculosus (60% ethanol extract) were selected as ingredients for incorporation into fluid milk and yogurt at concentrations of 0.25% and 0.5%. The addition of the seaweed extracts to milk and yogurt did not affect the pH or shelf-life properties of the products. Seaweed addition did however significantly influence the colour properties of the milk and yogurt. Yellowness values were significantly higher in yogurts containing F. vesiculosus at both concentrations and A. nodosum (80% ethanol) at the 0.5% concentration. In milk, the F. vesiculosus (60% ethanol) and A. nodosum (80% ethanol) at both the 0.25% and the 0.5% concentrations had higher greenness and yellowness values than the milk containing A. nodosum (100% water). Sensory analysis revealed that appearance and flavour governed the overall acceptability of yogurts with the control yogurt, and yogurts containing A. nodosum (100% water) were the most preferred samples by panellists. However, in the milk trial the perception of a fishy taste was the determining factor in the negative perception of milk. The unsupplemented control and the milk containing A. nodosum (100% water) at a concentration of 0.5% were the most overall accepted milk samples by the sensory panellists. The antioxidant activity of the extracts in milk and yogurt remained stable during storage as determined by the in-vitro assays. Seaweed supplemented milk and yogurt were also subjected to an in-vitro digestion procedure which mimics the human digestive system. The milk and yogurt samples and their digestates were added to Caco-2 cells to investigate their antioxidant potential however neither the undigested or digested samples protected against H2O2-induced DNA damage in Caco-2 cells.

Expression and function of the neurotrophic factors GDF5 and GDNF in the nigrostriatal system during development and in rat models of Parkinson's disease

Growth/differentiation factor 5 (GDF5) and glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) are neurotrophic factors that promote the survival of midbrain dopaminergic neurons in vitro and in vivo. Both factors have potent neurotrophic and neuroprotective effects in rat models of Parkinson's disease (PD), and may represent promising new therapies for PD. The aim of the present study was to investigate the endogenous expression and function of GDF5 and GDNF in the nigrostriatal dopaminergic system during development and in rat models of PD. Examination of the temporal expression patterns of endogenous GDF5, GDNF, and their respective receptors, in the developing and adult nigrostriatal dopaminergic system suggest that these factors play important roles in promoting the survival and maturation of midbrain dopaminergic neurons during the period of postnatal programmed cell death. The relative levels of GDF5 and GDNF mRNAs in the midbrain and striatum, and their individual temporal expression patterns during development, suggest that their modes of actions are quite distinct in vivo. Furthermore, the sustained expression of GDF5, GDNF, and their receptors into adulthood suggest roles for these factors in the continued support and maintenance of mature nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons. The present study found that endogenous GDF5, GDNF, and their receptors are differentially expressed in two 6-hydroxydopamine-induced lesion adult rat models of PD. In both terminal and axonal lesion models of PD, GDF5 mRNA levels in the striatum increased at 10 days post-lesion, while GDNF mRNA levels in the nigrostriatal system decreased at 10 and 28 days post-lesion. Thus, despite the fact that exogenous GDF5 and GDNF have similar effects on midbrain dopaminergic neurons in vitro and in vivo, their endogenous responses to a neurotoxic injury are quite distinct. These results highlight the importance of studying the temporal dynamic changes in neurotrophic factor expression during development and in animal models of PD.

Oral cancer incidence and survival rates in the Republic of Ireland, 1994-2009

Background: Oral cancer is a significant public health problem world-wide and exerts high economic, social, psychological, and physical burdens on patients, their families, and on their primary care providers. We set out to describe the changing trends in incidence and survival rates of oral cancer in Ireland between 1994 and 2009. Methods: National data on incident oral cancers [ICD 10 codes C01-C06] were obtained from the National Cancer Registry Ireland from 1994 to 2009. We estimated annual percentage change (APC) in oral cancer incidence during 1994–2009 using joinpoint regression software (version 4.2.0.2). The lifetime risk of oral cancer to age 79 was estimated using Irish incidence and population data from 2007 to 2009. Survival rates were also examined using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models to explore the influence of several demographic/lifestyle covariates with follow-up to end 2012. Results: Data were obtained on 2,147 oral cancer incident cases. Men accounted for two-thirds of oral cancer cases (n = 1,430). Annual rates in men decreased significantly during 1994–2001 (APC = -4.8 %, 95 % CI: −8.7 to −0.7) and then increased moderately (APC = 2.3 %, 95 % CI: −0.9 to 5.6). In contrast, annual incidence increased significantly in women throughout the study period (APC = 3.2 %, 95 % CI: 1.9 to 4.6). There was an elevated risk of death among oral cancer patients who were: older than 60 years of age; smokers; unemployed or retired; those living in the most deprived areas; and those whose tumour was sited in the base of the tongue. Being married and diagnosed in more recent years were associated with reduced risk of death. Conclusion: Oral cancer increased significantly in both sexes between 1999 and 2009 in Ireland. Our analyses demonstrate the influence of measured factors such as smoking, time of diagnosis and age on observed trends. Unmeasured factors such as alcohol use, HPV and dietary factors may also be contributing to increased trends. Several of these are modifiable risk factors which are crucial for informing public health policies, and thus more research is needed.

Differential and numerical models of hysteretic systems with stochastic and deterministic inputs

Many deterministic models with hysteresis have been developed in the areas of economics, finance, terrestrial hydrology and biology. These models lack any stochastic element which can often have a strong effect in these areas. In this work stochastically driven closed loop systems with hysteresis type memory are studied. This type of system is presented as a possible stochastic counterpart to deterministic models in the areas of economics, finance, terrestrial hydrology and biology. Some price dynamics models are presented as a motivation for the development of this type of model. Numerical schemes for solving this class of stochastic differential equation are developed in order to examine the prototype models presented. As a means of further testing the developed numerical schemes, numerical examination is made of the behaviour near equilibrium of coupled ordinary differential equations where the time derivative of the Preisach operator is included in one of the equations. A model of two phenotype bacteria is also presented. This model is examined to explore memory effects and related hysteresis effects in the area of biology. The memory effects found in this model are similar to that found in the non-ideal relay. This non-ideal relay type behaviour is used to model a colony of bacteria with multiple switching thresholds. This model contains a Preisach type memory with a variable Preisach weight function. Shown numerically for this multi-threshold model is a pattern formation for the distribution of the phenotypes among the available thresholds.

Interaction strengths and net effects in food web models

Understanding how dynamic ecological communities respond to anthropogenic drivers of change such as habitat loss and fragmentation, climate change and the introduction of alien species requires that there is a theoretical framework able to predict community dynamics. At present there is a lack of empirical data that can be used to inform and test predictive models, which means that much of our knowledge regarding the response of ecological communities to perturbations is obtained from theoretical analyses and simulations. This thesis is composed of two strands of research: an empirical experiment conducted to inform the scaling of intraspecific and interspecific interaction strengths in a three species food chain and a series of theoretical analyses on the changes to equilibrium biomass abundances following press perturbations. The empirical experiment is a consequence of the difficulties faced when parameterising the intraspecific interaction strengths in a Lotka-Volterra model. A modification of the dynamic index is used alongside the original dynamic index to estimate intraspecific interactions and interspecific interaction strengths in a three species food. The theoretical analyses focused on the effect of press perturbations to focal species on the equilibrium biomass densities of all species in the community; these perturbations allow for the quantification of a species total net effect. It was found that there is a strong and consistent positive relationship between a species body size and its total net effect for a set of 97 synthetic food webs and also for the Ythan Estuary and Tuesday Lake food webs (empirically described food webs). It is shown that ecological constraints (due to allometric scaling) on the magnitude of entries in the community matrix cause the patterns observed in the inverse community matrix and thus explain the relationship between a species body mass and its total net effect in a community.

Survival analysis of adult tuberculosis disease

Background: We conducted a survival analysis of all the confirmed cases of Adult Tuberculosis (TB) patients treated in Cork-City, Ireland. The aim of this study was to estimate Survival time (ST), including median time of survival and to assess the association and impact of covariates (TB risk factors) to event status and ST. The outcome of the survival analysis is reported in this paper. Methods: We used a retrospective cohort study research design to review data of 647 bacteriologically confirmed TB patients from the medical record of two teaching hospitals. Mean age 49 years (Range 18–112). We collected information on potential risk factors of all confirmed cases of TB treated between 2008–2012. For the survival analysis, the outcome of interest was ‘treatment failure’ or ‘death’ (whichever came first). A univariate descriptive statistics analysis was conducted using a non- parametric procedure, Kaplan -Meier (KM) method to estimate overall survival (OS), while the Cox proportional hazard model was used for the multivariate analysis to determine possible association of predictor variables and to obtain adjusted hazard ratio. P value was set at <0.05, log likelihood ratio test at >0.10. Data were analysed using SPSS version 15.0. Results: There was no significant difference in the survival curves of male and female patients. (Log rank statistic = 0.194, df = 1, p = 0.66) and among different age group (Log rank statistic = 1.337, df = 3, p = 0.72). The mean overall survival (OS) was 209 days (95%CI: 92–346) while the median was 51 days (95% CI: 35.7–66). The mean ST for women was 385 days (95%CI: 76.6–694) and for men was 69 days (95%CI: 48.8–88.5). Multivariate Cox regression showed that patient who had history of drug misuse had 2.2 times hazard than those who do not have drug misuse. Smokers and alcohol drinkers had hazard of 1.8 while patients born in country of high endemicity (BICHE) had hazard of 6.3 and HIV co-infection hazard was 1.2. Conclusion: There was no significant difference in survival curves of male and female and among age group. Women had a higher ST compared to men. But men had a higher hazard rate compared to women. Anti-TNF, immunosuppressive medication and diabetes were found to be associated with longer ST, while alcohol, smoking, RICHE, BICHE was associated with shorter ST.