Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

Electromagnetic tracking and steering for catheter navigation

This thesis explores the use of electromagnetics for both steering and tracking of medical instruments in minimally invasive surgeries. The end application is virtual navigation of the lung for biopsy of early stage cancer nodules. Navigation to the peripheral regions of the lung is difficult due to physical dimensions of the bronchi and current methods have low successes rates for accurate diagnosis. Firstly, the potential use of DC magnetic fields for the actuation of catheter devices with permanently magnetised distal attachments is investigated. Catheter models formed from various materials and magnetic tip formations are used to examine the usefulness of relatively low power and compact electromagnets. The force and torque that can be exerted on a small permanent magnet is shown to be extremely limited. Hence, after this initial investigation we turn our attention to electromagnetic tracking, in the development of a novel, low-cost implementation of a GPS-like system for navigating within a patient. A planar magnetic transmitter, formed on a printed circuit board for a low-profile and low cost manufacture, is used to generate a low frequency magnetic field distribution which is detected by a small induction coil sensor. The field transmitter is controlled by a novel closed-loop system that ensures a highly stable magnetic field with reduced interference from one transmitter coil to another. Efficient demodulation schemes are presented which utilise synchronous detection of each magnetic field component experienced by the sensor. The overall tracking accuracy of the system is shown to be less than 2 mm with an orientation error less than 1°. A novel demodulation implementation using a unique undersampling approach allows the use of reduced sample rates to sample the signals of interest without loss of tracking accuracy. This is advantageous for embedded microcontroller implementations of EM tracking systems. The EM tracking system is demonstrated in the pre-clinical environment of a breathing lung phantom. The airways of the phantom are successfully navigated using the system in combination with a 3D computer model rendered from CT data. Registration is achieved using both a landmark rigid registration method and a hybrid fiducial-free approach. The design of a planar magnetic shield structure for blocking the effects of metallic distortion from below the transmitter is presented which successfully blocks the impact of large ferromagnetic objects such as operating tables. A variety of shielding material are analysed with MuMetal and ferrite both providing excellent shieling performance and an increased signal to noise ratio. Finally, the effect of conductive materials and human tissue on magnetic field measurements is presented. Error due to induced eddy currents and capacitive coupling is shown to severely affect EM tracking accuracy at higher frequencies.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants

Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence - defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs - in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4-7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2-11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9-7·9) to 7·9% (6·4-9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Interpretation Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.