Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting

Wind energy is the energy source that contributes most to the renewable energy mix of European countries. While there are good wind resources throughout Europe, the intermittency of the wind represents a major problem for the deployment of wind energy into the electricity networks. To ensure grid security a Transmission System Operator needs today for each kilowatt of wind energy either an equal amount of spinning reserve or a forecasting system that can predict the amount of energy that will be produced from wind over a period of 1 to 48 hours. In the range from 5m/s to 15m/s a wind turbine’s production increases with a power of three. For this reason, a Transmission System Operator requires an accuracy for wind speed forecasts of 1m/s in this wind speed range. Forecasting wind energy with a numerical weather prediction model in this context builds the background of this work. The author’s goal was to present a pragmatic solution to this specific problem in the ”real world”. This work therefore has to be seen in a technical context and hence does not provide nor intends to provide a general overview of the benefits and drawbacks of wind energy as a renewable energy source. In the first part of this work the accuracy requirements of the energy sector for wind speed predictions from numerical weather prediction models are described and analysed. A unique set of numerical experiments has been carried out in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute to investigate the forecast quality of an operational numerical weather prediction model for this purpose. The results of this investigation revealed that the accuracy requirements for wind speed and wind power forecasts from today’s numerical weather prediction models can only be met at certain times. This means that the uncertainty of the forecast quality becomes a parameter that is as important as the wind speed and wind power itself. To quantify the uncertainty of a forecast valid for tomorrow requires an ensemble of forecasts. In the second part of this work such an ensemble of forecasts was designed and verified for its ability to quantify the forecast error. This was accomplished by correlating the measured error and the forecasted uncertainty on area integrated wind speed and wind power in Denmark and Ireland. A correlation of 93% was achieved in these areas. This method cannot solve the accuracy requirements of the energy sector. By knowing the uncertainty of the forecasts, the focus can however be put on the accuracy requirements at times when it is possible to accurately predict the weather. Thus, this result presents a major step forward in making wind energy a compatible energy source in the future.

Genetic analysis of bacteriophages from clinical and environmental samples

Bacteriophages, viruses infecting bacteria, are uniformly present in any location where there are high numbers of bacteria, both in the external environment and the human body. Knowledge of their diversity is limited by the difficulty to culture the host species and by the lack of the universal marker gene present in all viruses. Metagenomics is a powerful tool that can be used to analyse viral communities in their natural environments. The aim of this study was to investigate diverse populations of uncultured viruses from clinical (a sputum of patient with cystic fibrosis, CF) and environmental samples (a sludge from a dairy food wastewater treatment plant) containing rich bacterial populations using genetic and metagenomic analyses. Metagenomic sequencing of viruses obtained from these samples revealed that the majority of the metagenomic reads (97-99%) were novel when compared to the NCBI protein database using BLAST. A large proportion of assembled contigs were assignable as novel phages or uncharacterised prophages, the next largest assignable group being single-stranded eukaryotic virus genomes. Sputum from a cystic fibrosis patient contained DNA typical of phages of bacteria that are traditionally involved in CF lung infections and other bacteria that are part of the normal oral flora. The only eukaryotic virus detected in the CF sputum was Torque Teno virus (TTV). A substantial number of assigned sequences from dairy wastewater could be affiliated with phages of bacteria that are typically found in the soil and aquatic environments, including wastewater. Eukaryotic viral sequences were dominated by plant pathogens from the Geminiviridae and Nanoviridae families, and animal pathogens from the Circoviridae family. Antibiotic resistance genes were detected in both metagenomes suggesting phages could be a source for transmissible antimicrobial resistance. Overall, diversity of viruses in the CF sputum was low, with 89 distinct viral genotypes predicted, and higher (409 genotypes) in the wastewater. Function-based screening of a metagenomic library constructed from DNA extracted from dairy food wastewater viruses revealed candidate promoter sequences that have ability to drive expression of GFP in a promoter-trap vector in Escherichia coli. The majority of the cloned DNA sequences selected by the assay were related to ssDNA circular eukaryotic viruses and phages which formed a minority of the metagenome assembly, and many lacked any significant homology to known database sequences. Natural diversity of bacteriophages in wastewater samples was also examined by PCR amplification of the major capsid protein sequences, conserved within T4-type bacteriophages from Myoviridae family. Phylogenetic analysis of capsid sequences revealed that dairy wastewater contained mainly diverse and uncharacterized phages, while some showed a high level of similarity with phages from geographically distant environments.

Synecology in soft sediment bivalves: the influence of parasites, physiological processes, and environmental stressors on health and disease

Ecosystem goods and services provided by estuarine and near coastal regions are being increasingly recognised for their immense value, as is the biodiversity in these areas and these near coastal communities have been identified as sentinels of climate change also. Population structure and reproductive biology of two bivalve molluscs, Cerastoderma edule and, Mytilus edulis were assessed at two study sites over a 16-month study period. Following an anomalously harsh winter, advancement of spawning time was observed in both species. Throughout Ireland and Europe the cockle has experienced mass surfacings in geographically distinct regions, and a concurrent study of cockles was undertaken to explore this phenomenon. Surfaced and buried cockles were collected on a monthly basis and their health compared. Age was highlighted as a source of variation between dying and healthy animals with a parasite threshold being reached possibly around age three. Local factors dominated when looking at the cause of surfacing at each site. The health of mussels was explored too on a temporal and seasonal basis in an attempt to assess what constitutes a healthy organism. In essence external drivers can tip the balance between “acceptable” levels of infection where the mussel can still function physiologically and “unacceptable” where prevalence and intensity of infection can result in physiological impairment at the individual and population level. Synecological studies of intertidal ecosystems are lacking, so all bivalves encountered during the sampling were assessed in terms of population structure, reproduction, and health. It became clear, that some parasites might specialize on one host species while others are not so specific in host choice. Furthermore the population genetics of the cockle, its parasite Meiogymnophallus minutus, and its hyperparasite Unikaryon legeri were examined too. A small nucleotide polymorphism was detected upon comparison of Ireland and Morocco.

Reasoning with sorted-pareto dominance and other qualitative and partially ordered preferences in soft constraints

In decision making problems where we need to choose a particular decision or alternative from a set of possible choices, we often have some preferences which determine if we prefer one decision over another. When these preferences give us an ordering on the decisions that is complete, then it is easy to choose the best or one of the best decisions. However it often occurs that the preferences relation is partially ordered, and we have no best decision. In this thesis, we look at what happens when we have such a partial order over a set of decisions, in particular when we have multiple orderings on a set of decisions, and we present a framework for qualitative decision making. We look at the different natural notions of optimal decision that occur in this framework, which gives us different optimality classes, and we examine the relationships between these classes. We then look in particular at a qualitative preference relation called Sorted-Pareto Dominance, which is an extension of Pareto Dominance, and we give a semantics for this relation as one that is compatible with any order-preserving mapping of an ordinal preference scale to a numerical one. We apply Sorted-Pareto dominance to a Soft Constraints setting, where we solve problems in which the soft constraints associate qualitative preferences to decisions in a decision problem. We also examine the Sorted-Pareto dominance relation in the context of our qualitative decision making framework, looking at the relevant optimality classes for the Sorted-Pareto case, which gives us classes of decisions that are necessarily optimal, and optimal for some choice of mapping of an ordinal scale to a quantitative one. We provide some empirical analysis of Sorted-Pareto constraints problems and examine the optimality classes that result.