Power system parameters forecasting using Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. A part from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The second section presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learningbased algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting.

Personal learning artefacts: persistence, ownership and privacy

Traditional classrooms have been often regarded as closed spaces within which experimentation, discussion and exploration of ideas occur. Professors have been used to being able to express ideas frankly, and occasionally rashly while discussions are ephemeral and conventional student work is submitted, graded and often shredded. However, digital tools have transformed the nature of privacy. As we move towards the creation of life-long archives of our personal learning, we collect material created in various 'classrooms'. Some of these are public, and open, but others were created within 'circles of trust' with expectations of privacy and anonymity by learners. Taking the Creative Commons license as a starting point, this paper looks at what rights and expectations of privacy exist in learning environments? What methods might we use to define a 'privacy license' for learning? How should the privacy rights of learners be balanced with the need to encourage open learning and with the creation of eportfolios as evidence of learning? How might we define different learning spaces and the privacy rights associated with them? Which class activities are 'private' and closed to the class, which are open and what lies between? A limited set of set of metrics or zones is proposed, along the axes of private-public, anonymous-attributable and non-commercial-commercial to define learning spaces and the digital footprints created within them. The application of these not only to the artefacts which reflect learning, but to the learning spaces, and indeed to digital media more broadly are explored. The possibility that these might inform not only teaching practice but also grading rubrics in disciplines where public engagement is required will also be explored, along with the need for consideration by educational institutions of the data rights of students.

Team-teaching for inclusive learning: Purposes, practices and perceptions of a team-teaching initiative in Irish post-primary schools

Background. Schools unequivocally privilege solo-teaching. This research seeks to enhance our understanding of team-teaching by examining how two teachers, working in the same classroom at the same time, might or might not contribute to the promotion of inclusive learning. There are well-established policy statements that encourage change and moves towards the use of team-teaching to promote greater inclusion of students with special educational needs in mainstream schools and mainstream classrooms. What is not so well established is the practice of team-teaching in post-primary settings, with little research conducted to date on how it can be initiated and sustained, and a dearth of knowledge on how it impacts upon the students and teachers involved. Research questions and aims. In light of the paucity and inconclusive nature of the research on team-teaching to date (Hattie, 2009), the orientating question in this study asks ‘To what extent, can the introduction of a formal team-teaching initiative enhance the quality of inclusive student learning and teachers’ learning at post-primary level?’ The framing of this question emerges from ongoing political, legal and educational efforts to promote inclusive education. The study has three main aims. The first aim of this study is to gather and represent the voices and experiences of those most closely involved in the introduction of team-teaching; students, teachers, principals and administrators. The second aim is to generate a theory-informed understanding of such collaborative practices and how they may best be implemented in the future. The third aim is to advance our understandings regarding the day-to-day, and moment-to-moment interactions, between teachers and students which enable or inhibit inclusive learning. Sample. In total, 20 team-teaching dyads were formed across seven project schools. The study participants were from two of the seven project schools, Ash and Oak. It involved eight teachers and 53 students, whose age ranged from 12-16 years old, with 4 teachers forming two dyads per school. In Oak there was a class of first years (n=11) with one dyad and a class of transition year students (n=24) with the other dyad. In Ash one class group (n=18) had two dyads. The subjects in which the dyads engaged were English and Mathematics. Method. This research adopted an interpretive paradigm. The duration of the fieldwork was from April 2007 to June 2008. Research methodologies included semi-structured interviews (n=44), classroom observation (n=20), attendance at monthly teacher meetings (n=6), questionnaires and other data gathering practices which included school documentation, assessment findings and joint examination of student work samples (n=4). Results. Team-teaching involves changing normative practices, and involves placing both demands and opportunities before those who occupy classrooms (teachers and students) and before those who determine who should occupy these classrooms (principals and district administrators). This research shows how team-teaching has the potential to promote inclusive learning, and when implemented appropriately, can impact positively upon the learning experiences of both teachers and students. The results are outlined in two chapters. In chapter four, Social Capital Theory is used in framing the data, the change process of bonding, bridging and linking, and in capturing what the collaborative action of team-teaching means, asks and offers teachers; within classes, between classes, between schools and within the wider educational community. In chapter five, Positioning Theory deductively assists in revealing the moment-to-moment, dynamic and inclusive learning opportunities, that are made available to students through team-teaching. In this chapter a number of vignettes are chosen to illustrate such learning opportunities. These two theories help to reveal the counter-narrative that team-teaching offers, regarding how both teachers and students teach and learn. This counter-narrative can extend beyond the field of special education and include alternatives to the manner in which professional development is understood, implemented, and sustained in schools and classrooms. Team-teaching repositions teachers and students to engage with one another in an atmosphere that capitalises upon and builds relational trust and shared cognition. However, as this research study has found, it is wise that the purposes, processes and perceptions of team-teaching are clear to all so that team-teaching can be undertaken by those who are increasingly consciously competent and not merely accidentally adequate. Conclusions. The findings are discussed in the context of the promotion of effective inclusive practices in mainstream settings. I believe that such promotion requires more nuanced understandings of what is being asked of, and offered to, teachers and students. Team-teaching has, and I argue will increasingly have, its place in the repertoire of responses that support effective inclusive learning. To capture and extend such practice requires theoretical frameworks that facilitate iterative journeys between research, policy and practice. Research to date on team-teaching has been too focused on outcomes over short timeframes and not focused enough on the process that is team-teaching. As a consequence team-teaching has been under-used, under-valued, under-theorised and generally not very well understood. Moving from classroom to staff room and district board room, theoretical frameworks used in this research help to travel with, and understand, the initiation, engagement and early consequences of team-teaching within and across the educational landscape. Therefore, conclusions from this study have implications for the triad of research, practice and policy development where efforts to change normative practices can be matched by understandings associated with what it means to try something new/anew, and what it means to say it made a positive difference.

Learning to drive: from hazard detection to hazard handling

Hazard perception has been found to correlate with crash involvement, and has thus been suggested as the most likely source of any skill gap between novice and experienced drivers. The most commonly used method for measuring hazard perception is to evaluate the perception-reaction time to filmed traffic events. It can be argued that this method lacks ecological validity and may be of limited value in predicting the actions drivers’ will take to hazards encountered. The first two studies of this thesis compare novice and experienced drivers’ performance on a hazard detection test, requiring discrete button press responses, with their behaviour in a more dynamic driving environment, requiring hazard handling ability. Results indicate that the hazard handling test is more successful at identifying experience-related differences in response time to hazards. Hazard detection test scores were strongly related to performance on a driver theory test, implying that traditional hazard perception tests may be focusing more on declarative knowledge of driving than on the procedural knowledge required to successfully avoid hazards while driving. One in five Irish drivers crash within a year of passing their driving test. This suggests that the current driver training system does not fully prepare drivers for the dangers they will encounter. Thus, the third and fourth studies in this thesis focus on the development of two simulator-based training regimes. In the third study participants receive intensive training on the molar elements of driving i.e. speed and distance evaluation. The fourth study focuses on training higher order situation awareness skills, including perception, comprehension and projection. Results indicate significant improvement in aspects of speed, distance and situation awareness across training days. However, neither training programme leads to significant improvements in hazard handling performance, highlighting the difficulties of applying learning to situations not previously encountered.