Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting

Wind energy is the energy source that contributes most to the renewable energy mix of European countries. While there are good wind resources throughout Europe, the intermittency of the wind represents a major problem for the deployment of wind energy into the electricity networks. To ensure grid security a Transmission System Operator needs today for each kilowatt of wind energy either an equal amount of spinning reserve or a forecasting system that can predict the amount of energy that will be produced from wind over a period of 1 to 48 hours. In the range from 5m/s to 15m/s a wind turbine’s production increases with a power of three. For this reason, a Transmission System Operator requires an accuracy for wind speed forecasts of 1m/s in this wind speed range. Forecasting wind energy with a numerical weather prediction model in this context builds the background of this work. The author’s goal was to present a pragmatic solution to this specific problem in the ”real world”. This work therefore has to be seen in a technical context and hence does not provide nor intends to provide a general overview of the benefits and drawbacks of wind energy as a renewable energy source. In the first part of this work the accuracy requirements of the energy sector for wind speed predictions from numerical weather prediction models are described and analysed. A unique set of numerical experiments has been carried out in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute to investigate the forecast quality of an operational numerical weather prediction model for this purpose. The results of this investigation revealed that the accuracy requirements for wind speed and wind power forecasts from today’s numerical weather prediction models can only be met at certain times. This means that the uncertainty of the forecast quality becomes a parameter that is as important as the wind speed and wind power itself. To quantify the uncertainty of a forecast valid for tomorrow requires an ensemble of forecasts. In the second part of this work such an ensemble of forecasts was designed and verified for its ability to quantify the forecast error. This was accomplished by correlating the measured error and the forecasted uncertainty on area integrated wind speed and wind power in Denmark and Ireland. A correlation of 93% was achieved in these areas. This method cannot solve the accuracy requirements of the energy sector. By knowing the uncertainty of the forecasts, the focus can however be put on the accuracy requirements at times when it is possible to accurately predict the weather. Thus, this result presents a major step forward in making wind energy a compatible energy source in the future.

Analysis of institutional arrangements and common pool resources governance: the case of Lake Tana sub-basin, Ethiopia

Although Common Pool Resources (CPRs) make up a significant share of total income for rural households in Ethiopia and elsewhere in developing world, limited access to these resources and environmental degradation threaten local livelihoods. As a result, the issues of management, governance of CPRs and how to prevent their over-exploitation are of great importance for development policy. This study examines the current state and dynamics of CPRs and overall resource governance system of the Lake Tana sub-basin. This research employed the modified form of Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework. The framework integrates the concept of Socio-Ecological Systems (SES) and Interactive Governance (IG) perspectives where social actors, institutions, the politico-economic context, discourses and ecological features across governance and government levels were considered. It has been observed that overexploitation, degradation and encroachment of CPRs have increased dramatically and this threatens the sustainability of Lake Tana ecosystem. The stakeholder analysis result reveals that there are multiple stakeholders with diverse interest in and power over CPRs. The analysis of institutional arrangements reveals that the existing formal rules and regulations governing access to and control over CPRs could not be implemented and were not effective to legally bind and govern CPR user’s behavior at the operational level. The study also shows that a top-down and non-participatory policy formulation, law and decision making process overlooks the local contexts (local knowledge and informal institutions). The outcomes of examining the participation of local resource users, as an alternative to a centralized, command-and-control, and hierarchical approach to resource management and governance, have called for a fundamental shift in CPR use, management and governance to facilitate the participation of stakeholders in decision making. Therefore, establishing a multi-level stakeholder governance system as an institutional structure and process is necessary to sustain stakeholder participation in decision-making regarding CPR use, management and governance.

High-current inductors for high-power automotive DC-DC converters

This thesis is focused on the investigation of magnetic materials for high-power dcdc converters in hybrid and fuel cell vehicles and the development of an optimized high-power inductor for a multi-phase converter. The thesis introduces the power system architectures for hybrid and fuel cell vehicles. The requirements for power electronic converters are established and the dc-dc converter topologies of interest are introduced. A compact and efficient inductor is critical to reduce the overall cost, weight and volume of the dc-dc converter and optimize vehicle driving range and traction power. Firstly, materials suitable for a gapped CC-core inductor are analyzed and investigated. A novel inductor-design algorithm is developed and automated in order to compare and contrast the various magnetic materials over a range of frequencies and ripple ratios. The algorithm is developed for foil-wound inductors with gapped CC-cores in the low (10 kHz) to medium (30 kHz) frequency range and investigates the materials in a natural-convection-cooled environment. The practical effects of frequency, ripple, air-gap fringing, and thermal configuration are investigated next for the iron-based amorphous metal and 6.5 % silicon steel materials. A 2.5 kW converter is built to verify the optimum material selection and thermal configuration over the frequency range and ripple ratios of interest. Inductor size can increase in both of these laminated materials due to increased airgap fringing losses. Distributing the airgap is demonstrated to reduce the inductor losses and size but has practical limitations for iron-based amorphous metal cores. The effects of the manufacturing process are shown to degrade the iron-based amorphous metal multi-cut core loss. The experimental results also suggest that gap loss is not a significant consideration in these experiments. The predicted losses by the equation developed by Reuben Lee and cited by Colonel McLyman are significantly higher than the experimental results suggest. Iron-based amorphous metal has better preformance than 6.5 % silicon steel when a single cut core and natural-convection-cooling are used. Conduction cooling, rather than natural convection, can result in the highest power density inductor. The cooling for these laminated materials is very dependent on the direction of the lamination and the component mounting. Experimental results are produced showing the effects of lamination direction on the cooling path. A significant temperature reduction is demonstrated for conduction cooling versus natural-convection cooling. Iron-based amorphous metal and 6.5% silicon steel are competitive materials when conduction cooled. A novel inductor design algorithm is developed for foil-wound inductors with gapped CC-cores for conduction cooling of core and copper. Again, conduction cooling, rather than natural convection, is shown to reduce the size and weight of the inductor. The weight of the 6.5 % silicon steel inductor is reduced by around a factor of ten compared to natural-convection cooling due to the high thermal conductivity of the material. The conduction cooling algorithm is used to develop high-power custom inductors for use in a high power multi-phase boost converter. Finally, a high power digitally-controlled multi-phase boost converter system is designed and constructed to test the high-power inductors. The performance of the inductors is compared to the predictions used in the design process and very good correlation is achieved. The thesis results have been documented at IEEE APEC, PESC and IAS conferences in 2007 and at the IEEE EPE conference in 2008.

CloudNeg: An autonomous multi issue negotiation system, with preference elicitation component, for trading cloud services

Cloud services provide its users with flexible resource provisioning. But in the current market, a user has to choose from a limited set of configurations at a fixed price. This paper presents an autonomous negotiation system termed CloudNeg for negotiating cloud services. CloudNeg provides buyers and sellers of cloud services with autonomous agents to negotiate on the specifications of a cloud instance, including price, on their behalf. These agents elicit their buyers’ time preferences and use them in negotiations. Further, this paper presents two artifacts: a negotiation algorithm and a prototype which together form CloudNeg.