Bottom-up modelling of energy demand and technical energy savings potential in the Irish residential sector

The International Energy Agency has repeatedly identified increased end-use energy efficiency as the quickest, least costly method of green house gas mitigation, most recently in the 2012 World Energy Outlook, and urges all governing bodies to increase efforts to promote energy efficiency policies and technologies. The residential sector is recognised as a major potential source of cost effective energy efficiency gains. Within the EU this relative importance can be seen from a review of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAP) submitted by member states, which in all cases place a large emphasis on the residential sector. This is particularly true for Ireland whose residential sector has historically had higher energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the EU average and whose first NEEAP targeted 44% of the energy savings to be achieved in 2020 from this sector. This thesis develops a bottom-up engineering archetype modelling approach to analyse the Irish residential sector and to estimate the technical energy savings potential of a number of policy measures. First, a model of space and water heating energy demand for new dwellings is built and used to estimate the technical energy savings potential due to the introduction of the 2008 and 2010 changes to part L of the building regulations governing energy efficiency in new dwellings. Next, the author makes use of a valuable new dataset of Building Energy Rating (BER) survey results to first characterise the highly heterogeneous stock of existing dwellings, and then to estimate the technical energy savings potential of an ambitious national retrofit programme targeting up to 1 million residential dwellings. This thesis also presents work carried out by the author as part of a collaboration to produce a bottom-up, multi-sector LEAP model for Ireland. Overall this work highlights the challenges faced in successfully implementing both sets of policy measures. It points to the wide potential range of final savings possible from particular policy measures and the resulting high degree of uncertainty as to whether particular targets will be met and identifies the key factors on which the success of these policies will depend. It makes recommendations on further modelling work and on the improvements necessary in the data available to researchers and policy makers alike in order to develop increasingly sophisticated residential energy demand models and better inform policy.

Examining the post-adoptive infusion of mobile technology in a healthcare domain: determinants and outcomes

The healthcare industry is beginning to appreciate the benefits which can be obtained from using Mobile Health Systems (MHS) at the point-of-care. As a result, healthcare organisations are investing heavily in mobile health initiatives with the expectation that users will employ the system to enhance performance. Despite widespread endorsement and support for the implementation of MHS, empirical evidence surrounding the benefits of MHS remains to be fully established. For MHS to be truly valuable, it is argued that the technological tool be infused within healthcare practitioners work practices and used to its full potential in post-adoptive scenarios. Yet, there is a paucity of research focusing on the infusion of MHS by healthcare practitioners. In order to address this gap in the literature, the objective of this study is to explore the determinants and outcomes of MHS infusion by healthcare practitioners. This research study adopts a post-positivist theory building approach to MHS infusion. Existing literature is utilised to develop a conceptual model by which the research objective is explored. Employing a mixed-method approach, this conceptual model is first advanced through a case study in the UK whereby propositions established from the literature are refined into testable hypotheses. The final phase of this research study involves the collection of empirical data from a Canadian hospital which supports the refined model and its associated hypotheses. The results from both phases of data collection are employed to develop a model of MHS infusion. The study contributes to IS theory and practice by: (1) developing a model with six determinants (Availability, MHS Self-Efficacy, Time-Criticality, Habit, Technology Trust, and Task Behaviour) and individual performance-related outcomes of MHS infusion (Effectiveness, Efficiency, and Learning), (2) examining undocumented determinants and relationships, (3) identifying prerequisite conditions that both healthcare practitioners and organisations can employ to assist with MHS infusion, (4) developing a taxonomy that provides conceptual refinement of IT infusion, and (5) informing healthcare organisations and vendors as to the performance of MHS in post-adoptive scenarios.

Profiling side-channel attacks on cryptographic algorithms

Traditionally, attacks on cryptographic algorithms looked for mathematical weaknesses in the underlying structure of a cipher. Side-channel attacks, however, look to extract secret key information based on the leakage from the device on which the cipher is implemented, be it smart-card, microprocessor, dedicated hardware or personal computer. Attacks based on the power consumption, electromagnetic emanations and execution time have all been practically demonstrated on a range of devices to reveal partial secret-key information from which the full key can be reconstructed. The focus of this thesis is power analysis, more specifically a class of attacks known as profiling attacks. These attacks assume a potential attacker has access to, or can control, an identical device to that which is under attack, which allows him to profile the power consumption of operations or data flow during encryption. This assumes a stronger adversary than traditional non-profiling attacks such as differential or correlation power analysis, however the ability to model a device allows templates to be used post-profiling to extract key information from many different target devices using the power consumption of very few encryptions. This allows an adversary to overcome protocols intended to prevent secret key recovery by restricting the number of available traces. In this thesis a detailed investigation of template attacks is conducted, along with how the selection of various attack parameters practically affect the efficiency of the secret key recovery, as well as examining the underlying assumption of profiling attacks in that the power consumption of one device can be used to extract secret keys from another. Trace only attacks, where the corresponding plaintext or ciphertext data is unavailable, are then investigated against both symmetric and asymmetric algorithms with the goal of key recovery from a single trace. This allows an adversary to bypass many of the currently proposed countermeasures, particularly in the asymmetric domain. An investigation into machine-learning methods for side-channel analysis as an alternative to template or stochastic methods is also conducted, with support vector machines, logistic regression and neural networks investigated from a side-channel viewpoint. Both binary and multi-class classification attack scenarios are examined in order to explore the relative strengths of each algorithm. Finally these machine-learning based alternatives are empirically compared with template attacks, with their respective merits examined with regards to attack efficiency.