Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Enabling effective operational decision making on a Combined Heat and Power System using the 5C architecture

The use of Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) to optimise industrial energy systems is an approach which has the potential to positively impact on manufacturing sector energy efficiency. The need to obtain data to facilitate the implementation of a CPS in an industrial energy system is however a complex task which is often implemented in a non-standardised way. The use of the 5C CPS architecture has the potential to standardise this approach. This paper describes a case study where data from a Combined Heat and Power (CHP) system located in a large manufacturing company was fused with grid electricity and gas models as well as a maintenance cost model using the 5C architecture with a view to making effective decisions on its cost efficient operation. A control change implemented based on the cognitive analysis enabled via the 5C architecture implementation has resulted in energy cost savings of over €7400 over a four-month period, with energy cost savings of over €150,000 projected once the 5C architecture is extended into the production environment.

Integrated spot size converters for InP based photonic systems

The ever increasing demand for broadband communications requires sophisticated devices. Photonic integrated circuits (PICs) are an approach that fulfills those requirements. PICs enable the integration of different optical modules on a single chip. Low loss fiber coupling and simplified packaging are key issues in keeping the price of PICs at a low level. Integrated spot size converters (SSC) offer an opportunity to accomplish this. Design, fabrication and characterization of SSCs based on an asymmetric twin waveguide (ATG) at a wavelength of 1.55 μm are the main elements of this dissertation. It is theoretically and experimentally shown that a passive ATG facilitates a polarization filter mechanism. A reproducible InP process guideline is developed that achieves vertical waveguides with smooth sidewalls. Birefringence and resonant coupling are used in an ATG to enable a polarization filtering and splitting mechanism. For the first time such a filter is experimentally shown. At a wavelength of 1610 nm a power extinction ratio of (1.6 ± 0.2) dB was measured for the TE- polarization in a single approximately 372 μm long TM- pass polarizer. A TE-pass polarizer with a similar length was demonstrated with a TM/TE-power extinction ratio of (0.7 ± 0.2) dB at 1610 nm. The refractive indices of two different InGaAsP compositions, required for a SSC, are measured by the reflection spectroscopy technique. A SSC layout for dielectric-free fabricated compact photodetectors is adjusted to those index values. The development and the results of the final fabrication procedure for the ATG concept are outlined. The etch rate, sidewall roughness and selectivity of a Cl2/CH4/H2 based inductively coupled plasma (ICP) etch are investigated by a design of experiment approach. The passivation effect of CH4 is illustrated for the first time. Conditions are determined for etching smooth and vertical sidewalls up to a depth of 5 μm.

Integrated genetic analysis systems

The overall objective of this thesis is to integrate a number of micro/nanotechnologies into integrated cartridge type systems to implement such biochemical protocols. Instrumentation and systems were developed to interface such cartridge systems: (i) implementing microfluidic handling, (ii) executing thermal control during biochemical protocols and (iii) detection of biomolecules associated with inherited or infectious disease. This system implements biochemical protocols for DNA extraction, amplification and detection. A digital microfluidic chip (ElectroWetting on Dielectric) manipulated droplets of sample and reagent implementing sample preparation protocols. The cartridge system also integrated a planar magnetic microcoil device to generate local magnetic field gradients, manipulating magnetic beads. For hybridisation detection a fluorescence microarray, screening for mutations associated with CFTR gene is printed on a waveguide surface and integrated within the cartridge. A second cartridge system was developed to implement amplification and detection screening for DNA associated with disease-causing pathogens e.g. Escherichia coli. This system incorporates (i) elastomeric pinch valves isolating liquids during biochemical protocols and (ii) a silver nanoparticle microarray for fluorescent signal enhancement, using localized surface plasmon resonance. The microfluidic structures facilitated the sample and reagent to be loaded and moved between chambers with external heaters implementing thermal steps for nucleic acid amplification and detection. In a technique allowing probe DNA to be immobilised within a microfluidic system using (3D) hydrogel structures a prepolymer solution containing probe DNA was formulated and introduced into the microfluidic channel. Photo-polymerisation was undertaken forming 3D hydrogel structures attached to the microfluidic channel surface. The prepolymer material, poly-ethyleneglycol (PEG), was used to form hydrogel structures containing probe DNA. This hydrogel formulation process was fast compared to conventional biomolecule immobilization techniques and was also biocompatible with the immobilised biomolecules, as verified by on-chip hybridisation assays. This process allowed control over hydrogel height growth at the micron scale.

Assessing the utility of geospatial technologies to investigate environmental change within lake systems

Over 50% of the world's population live within 3. km of rivers and lakes highlighting the on-going importance of freshwater resources to human health and societal well-being. Whilst covering c. 3.5% of the Earth's non-glaciated land mass, trends in the environmental quality of the world's standing waters (natural lakes and reservoirs) are poorly understood, at least in comparison with rivers, and so evaluation of their current condition and sensitivity to change are global priorities. Here it is argued that a geospatial approach harnessing existing global datasets, along with new generation remote sensing products, offers the basis to characterise trajectories of change in lake properties e.g., water quality, physical structure, hydrological regime and ecological behaviour. This approach furthermore provides the evidence base to understand the relative importance of climatic forcing and/or changing catchment processes, e.g. land cover and soil moisture data, which coupled with climate data provide the basis to model regional water balance and runoff estimates over time. Using examples derived primarily from the Danube Basin but also other parts of the World, we demonstrate the power of the approach and its utility to assess the sensitivity of lake systems to environmental change, and hence better manage these key resources in the future.

The exploration of potato-associated bacteria in the Central Andean Highlands and their application in integrated crop management systems

Potato is the most important food crop after wheat and rice. A changing climate, coupled with a heightened consumer awareness of how food is produced and legislative changes governing the usage of agrochemicals, means that alternative more integrated and sustainable approaches are needed for crop management practices. Bioprospecting in the Central Andean Highlands resulted in the isolation and in vitro screening of 600 bacterial isolates. The best performing isolates, under in vitro conditions, were field trialled in their home countries. Six of the isolates, Pseudomonas sp. R41805 (Bolivia), Pseudomonas palleroniana R43631 (Peru), Bacillus sp. R47065, R47131, Paenibacillus sp. B3a R49541, and Bacillus simplex M3-4 R49538 (Ecuador), showed significant increase in the yield of potato. Using – omic technologies (i.e. volatilomic, transcriptomic, proteomic and metabolomic), the influence of microbial isolates on plant defence responses was determined. Volatile organic compounds of bacterial isolates were identified using GC/MS. RT-qPCR analysis revealed the significant expression of Ethylene Response Factor 3 (ERF3) and the results of this study suggest that the dual inoculation of potato with Pseudomonas sp. R41805 and Rhizophagus irregularis MUCL 41833 may play a part in the activation of plant defence system via ERF3. The proteomic analysis by 2-DE study has shown that priming by Pseudomonas sp. R41805 can induce the expression of proteins related to photosynthesis and protein folding in in vitro potato plantlets. The metabolomics study has shown that the total glycoalkaloid (TGA) content of greenhouse-grown potato tubers following inoculation with Pseudomonas sp. R41805 did not exceed the acceptable safety limit (200 mg kg-1 FW). As a result of this study, a number of bacteria have been identified with commercial potential that may offer sustainable alternatives in both Andean and European agricultural settings.

Irish state infrastructural investment: an analysis of past patterns, and an outline of a future integrated systems of systems evaluation methodology

The literature clearly links the quality and capacity of a country’s infrastructure to its economic growth and competitiveness. This thesis analyses the historic national and spatial distribution of investment by the Irish state in its physical networks (water, wastewater and roads) across the 34 local authorities and examines how Ireland is perceived internationally relative to its economic counterparts. An appraisal of the current status and shortcomings of Ireland’s infrastructure is undertaken using key stakeholders from foreign direct investment companies and national policymakers to identify Ireland's infrastructural gaps, along with current challenges in how the country is delivering infrastructure. The output of these interviews identified many issues with how infrastructure decision-making is currently undertaken. This led to an evaluation of how other countries are informing decision-making, and thus this thesis presents a framework of how and why Ireland should embrace a Systems of Systems (SoS) methodology approach to infrastructure decision-making going forward. In undertaking this study a number of other infrastructure challenges were identified: significant political interference in infrastructure decision-making and delivery the need for a national agency to remove the existing ‘silo’ type of mentality to infrastructure delivery how tax incentives can interfere with the market; and their significance. The two key infrastructure gaps identified during the interview process were: the need for government intervention in the rollout of sufficient communication capacity and at a competitive cost outside of Dublin; and the urgent need to address water quality and capacity with approximately 25% of the population currently being served by water of unacceptable quality. Despite considerable investment in its national infrastructure, Ireland’s infrastructure performance continues to trail behind its economic partners in the Eurozone and OECD. Ireland is projected to have the highest growth rate in the euro zone region in 2015 and 2016, albeit that it required a bailout in 2010, and, at the time of writing, is beginning to invest in its infrastructure networks again. This thesis proposes the development and implementation of a SoS approach for infrastructure decision-making which would be based on: existing spatial and capacity data of each of the constituent infrastructure networks; and scenario computation and analysis of alternative drivers eg. Demographic change, economic variability and demand/capacity constraints. The output from such an analysis would provide valuable evidence upon which policy makers and decision makers alike could rely, which has been lacking in historic investment decisions.

The meaning of environmental control systems (ECS) for people with spinal cord injury: An occupational therapist explores an intervention

Environmental Control Systems (ECS), enable people with high cervical Spinal Cord Injury (high SCI) to control and access everyday electronic devices. In Ireland, however, access for those who might benefit from ECS is limited. This study used a qualitative approach to explore the insider experience of an ECS starter-pack developed by the author, an occupational therapist. The primary research questions: what is it really like to live with ECS, and what does it mean to live with ECS, were explored using a phenomenological methodology conducted in three phases. In Phase 1 fifteen people with high SCI met twice in four focus groups to discuss experiences and expectations of ECS. Thematic analysis (Krueger & Casey, 2000), influenced by the psychological phenomenological approach (Creswell, 1998), yielded three categories of rich, practical, phenomenological findings: ECS Usage and utility; ECS Expectations and The meaning of living with ECS. Phase 1 findings informed Phase 2 which consisted of the development of a generic electronic assistive technology pack (GrEAT) that included commercially available constituents as well as short instructional videos and an information booklet. This second phase culminated in a one-person, three-week pilot trial. Phase 3 involved a six person, 8-week trial of the GrEAT, followed by individual in-depth interviews. Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis IPA (Smith, Larkin & Flowers, 2009), aided by computer software ATLAS.ti and iMindmap, guided data analysis and identification of themes. Getting used to ECS, experienced as both a hassle and engaging, resulted in participants being able to Take back a little of what you have lost, which involved both feeling enabled and reclaiming a little doing. The findings of this study provide substantial insights into what it is like to live with ECS and the meanings attributed to that experience. Several practical, real world implications are discussed.

Integrated magnetic components for high-power high-current dc-dc converters

This thesis is focused on the design and development of an integrated magnetic (IM) structure for use in high-power high-current power converters employed in renewable energy applications. These applications require low-cost, high efficiency and high-power density magnetic components and the use of IM structures can help achieve this goal. A novel CCTT-core split-winding integrated magnetic (CCTT IM) is presented in this thesis. This IM is optimized for use in high-power dc-dc converters. The CCTT IM design is an evolution of the traditional EE-core integrated magnetic (EE IM). The CCTT IM structure uses a split-winding configuration allowing for the reduction of external leakage inductance, which is a problem for many traditional IM designs, such as the EE IM. Magnetic poles are incorporated to help shape and contain the leakage flux within the core window. These magnetic poles have the added benefit of minimizing the winding power loss due to the airgap fringing flux as they shape the fringing flux away from the split-windings. A CCTT IM reluctance model is developed which uses fringing equations to accurately predict the most probable regions of fringing flux around the pole and winding sections of the device. This helps in the development of a more accurate model as it predicts the dc and ac inductance of the component. A CCTT IM design algorithm is developed which relies heavily on the reluctance model of the CCTT IM. The design algorithm is implemented using the mathematical software tool Mathematica. This algorithm is modular in structure and allows for the quick and easy design and prototyping of the CCTT IM. The algorithm allows for the investigation of the CCTT IM boxed volume with the variation of input current ripple, for different power ranges, magnetic materials and frequencies. A high-power 72 kW CCTT IM prototype is designed and developed for use in an automotive fuelcell-based drivetrain. The CCTT IM design algorithm is initially used to design the component while 3D and 2D finite element analysis (FEA) software is used to optimize the design. Low-cost and low-power loss ferrite 3C92 is used for its construction, and when combined with a low number of turns results in a very efficient design. A paper analysis is undertaken which compares the performance of the high-power CCTT IM design with that of two discrete inductors used in a two-phase (2L) interleaved converter. The 2L option consists of two discrete inductors constructed from high dc-bias material. Both topologies are designed for the same worst-case phase current ripple conditions and this ensures a like-for-like comparison. The comparison indicates that the total magnetic component boxed volume of both converters is similar while the CCTT IM has significantly lower power loss. Experimental results for the 72 kW, (155 V dc, 465 A dc input, 420 V dc output) prototype validate the CCTT IM concept where the component is shown to be 99.7 % efficient. The high-power experimental testing was conducted at General Motors advanced technology center in Torrence, Los Angeles. Calorific testing was used to determine the power loss in the CCTT IM component. Experimental 3.8 kW results and a 3.8 kW prototype compare and contrast the ferrite CCTT IM and high dc-bias 2L concepts over the typical operating range of a fuelcell under like-for-like conditions. The CCTT IM is shown to perform better than the 2L option over the entire power range. An 8 kW ferrite CCTT IM prototype is developed for use in photovoltaic (PV) applications. The CCTT IM is used in a boost pre-regulator as part of the PV power stage. The CCTT IM is compared with an industry standard 2L converter consisting of two discrete ferrite toroidal inductors. The magnetic components are compared for the same worst-case phase current ripple and the experimental testing is conducted over the operation of a PV panel. The prototype CCTT IM allows for a 50 % reduction in total boxed volume and mass in comparison to the baseline 2L option, while showing increased efficiency.

Photonic integrated circuits for the generation of coherent optical signals

The demand for optical bandwidth continues to increase year on year and is being driven primarily by entertainment services and video streaming to the home. Current photonic systems are coping with this demand by increasing data rates through faster modulation techniques, spectrally efficient transmission systems and by increasing the number of modulated optical channels per fibre strand. Such photonic systems are large and power hungry due to the high number of discrete components required in their operation. Photonic integration offers excellent potential for combining otherwise discrete system components together on a single device to provide robust, power efficient and cost effective solutions. In particular, the design of optical modulators has been an area of immense interest in recent times. Not only has research been aimed at developing modulators with faster data rates, but there has also a push towards making modulators as compact as possible. Mach-Zehnder modulators (MZM) have proven to be highly successful in many optical communication applications. However, due to the relatively weak electro-optic effect on which they are based, they remain large with typical device lengths of 4 to 7 mm while requiring a travelling wave structure for high-speed operation. Nested MZMs have been extensively used in the generation of advanced modulation formats, where multi-symbol transmission can be used to increase data rates at a given modulation frequency. Such nested structures have high losses and require both complex fabrication and packaging. In recent times, it has been shown that Electro-absorption modulators (EAMs) can be used in a specific arrangement to generate Quadrature Phase Shift Keying (QPSK) modulation. EAM based QPSK modulators have increased potential for integration and can be made significantly more compact than MZM based modulators. Such modulator designs suffer from losses in excess of 40 dB, which limits their use in practical applications. The work in this thesis has focused on how these losses can be reduced by using photonic integration. In particular, the integration of multiple lasers with the modulator structure was considered as an excellent means of reducing fibre coupling losses while maximising the optical power on chip. A significant difficultly when using multiple integrated lasers in such an arrangement was to ensure coherence between the integrated lasers. The work investigated in this thesis demonstrates for the first time how optical injection locking between discrete lasers on a single photonic integrated circuit (PIC) can be used in the generation of coherent optical signals. This was done by first considering the monolithic integration of lasers and optical couplers to form an on chip optical power splitter, before then examining the behaviour of a mutually coupled system of integrated lasers. By operating the system in a highly asymmetric coupling regime, a stable phase locking region was found between the integrated lasers. It was then shown that in this stable phase locked region the optical outputs of each laser were coherent with each other and phase locked to a common master laser.

Photonic integrated circuit for the manipulation of coherent optical combs

Photonic integration has become an important research topic in research for applications in the telecommunications industry. Current optical internet infrastructure has reached capacity with current generation dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) systems fully occupying the low absorption region of optical fibre from 1530 nm to 1625 nm (the C and L bands). This is both due to an increase in the number of users worldwide and existing users demanding more bandwidth. Therefore, current research is focussed on using the available telecommunication spectrum more efficiently. To this end, coherent communication systems are being developed. Advanced coherent modulation schemes can be quite complex in terms of the number and array of devices required for implementation. In order to make these systems viable both logistically and commercially, photonic integration is required. In traditional DWDM systems, arrayed waveguide gratings (AWG) are used to both multiplex and demultiplex the multi-wavelength signal involved. AWGs are used widely as they allow filtering of the many DWDM wavelengths simultaneously. However, when moving to coherent telecommunication systems such as coherent optical frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) smaller FSR ranges are required from the AWG. This increases the size of the device which is counter to the miniaturisation which integration is trying to achieve. Much work was done with active filters during the 1980s. This involved using a laser device (usually below threshold) to allow selective wavelength filtering of input signals. By using more complicated cavity geometry devices such as distributed feedback (DFB) and sampled grating distributed Bragg gratings (SG-DBR) narrowband filtering is achievable with high suppression (>30 dB) of spurious wavelengths. The active nature of the devices also means that, through carrier injection, the index can be altered resulting in tunability of the filter. Used above threshold, active filters become useful in filtering coherent combs. Through injection locking, the coherence of the filtered wavelengths with the original comb source is retained. This gives active filters potential application in coherent communication system as demultiplexers. This work will focus on the use of slotted Fabry-Pérot (SFP) semiconductor lasers as active filters. Experiments were carried out to ensure that SFP lasers were useful as tunable active filters. In all experiments in this work the SFP lasers were operated above threshold and so injection locking was the mechanic by which the filters operated. Performance of the lasers under injection locking was examined using both single wavelength and coherent comb injection. In another experiment two discrete SFP lasers were used simultaneously to demultiplex a two-line coherent comb. The relative coherence of the comb lines was retained after demultiplexing. After showing that SFP lasers could be used to successfully demultiplex coherent combs a photonic integrated circuit was designed and fabricated. This involved monolithic integration of a MMI power splitter with an array of single facet SFP lasers. This device was tested much in the same way as the discrete devices. The integrated device was used to successfully demultiplex a two line coherent comb signal whilst retaining the relative coherence between the filtered comb lines. A series of modelling systems were then employed in order to understand the resonance characteristics of the fabricated devices, and to understand their performance under injection locking. Using this information, alterations to the SFP laser designs were made which were theoretically shown to provide improved performance and suitability for use in filtering coherent comb signals.