On classical and other methods of discriminant analysis and estimation of log-odds

For two multinormal populations with equal covariance matrices the likelihood ratio discriminant function, an alternative allocation rule to the sample linear discriminant function when n1 ≠ n2 ,is studied analytically. With the assumption of a known covariance matrix its distribution is derived and the expectation of its actual and apparent error rates evaluated and compared with those of the sample linear discriminant function. This comparison indicates that the likelihood ratio allocation rule is robust to unequal sample sizes. The quadratic discriminant function is studied, its distribution reviewed and evaluation of its probabilities of misclassification discussed. For known covariance matrices the distribution of the sample quadratic discriminant function is derived. When the known covariance matrices are proportional exact expressions for the expectation of its actual and apparent error rates are obtained and evaluated. The effectiveness of the sample linear discriminant function for this case is also considered. Estimation of true log-odds for two multinormal populations with equal or unequal covariance matrices is studied. The estimative, Bayesian predictive and a kernel method are compared by evaluating their biases and mean square errors. Some algebraic expressions for these quantities are derived. With equal covariance matrices the predictive method is preferable. Where it derives this superiority is investigated by considering its performance for various levels of fixed true log-odds. It is also shown that the predictive method is sensitive to n1 ≠ n2. For unequal but proportional covariance matrices the unbiased estimative method is preferred. Product Normal kernel density estimates are used to give a kernel estimator of true log-odds. The effect of correlation in the variables with product kernels is considered. With equal covariance matrices the kernel and parametric estimators are compared by simulation. For moderately correlated variables and large dimension sizes the product kernel method is a good estimator of true log-odds.

Suicide and deliberate self harm in older Irish adults

Background: Hospital-treated deliberate self harm and suicide among older adults have rarely been examined at a national level. Methods: The Irish Central Statistics Office provided suicide and undetermined death data for 1980-2006. The National Registry of Deliberate Self Harm collected data relating to deliberate self harm presentations made in 2006-2008 to all 40 Irish hospital emergency departments. Results: Rates of female suicide among older adults (over 55 years) were relatively stable in Ireland during 1980-2006 whereas male rates increased in the 1980s and decreased in more recent decades. Respectively, the annual male and female suicide and undetermined death rate was 22.1 and 7.6 per 100,000 in 1997-2006. Male and female deliberate self harm was 3.0 and 11.0 times higher at 67.4 and 83.4 per 100,000, respectively. Deliberate self harm and suicide decreased in incidence with increasing age. Deliberate self harm generally involved drug overdose (male: 72%; female 85%) or self-cutting (male: 15%; female 9%). The most common methods of suicide were hanging (41%) and drowning (29%) for men and drowning (39%) and drug overdose (24%) for women. City and urban district populations had the highest rates of hospital-treated self harm. The highest suicide rates were in urban districts. Conclusions: Older Irish adults have high rates of hospital-treated deliberate self harm but below average rates of suicide. Drowning was relatively common as a method of suicide. Restricting availability of specific medications may reduce both forms of suicidal behavior.

Suicide among young people and adults in Ireland: method characteristics, toxicological analysis and substance abuse histories compared

Objective: Information on factors associated with suicide among young individuals in Ireland is limited. The aim of this study was to identify socio-demographic characteristics and circumstances of death associated with age among individuals who died by suicide. Methods: The study examined 121 consecutive suicides (2007–2012) occurring in the southern eastern part of Ireland (Cork city and county). Data were obtained from coroners, family informants, and health care professionals. A comparison was made between 15-24-year-old and 25-34-year-old individuals. Socio-demographic characteristics of the deceased, methods of suicide, history of alcohol and drug abuse, and findings from toxicological analysis of blood and urine samples taken at post mortem were included. Pearson’s χ2 tests and binary logistic regression analysis were performed. Results: Alcohol and/or drugs were detected through toxicological analysis for the majority of the total sample (79.5%), which did not differentiate between 15-24-year-old and 25-34-year-old individuals (74.1% and 86.2% respectively). Compared to 25-34-year-old individuals, 15-24-year-old individuals were more likely to engage in suicide by hanging (88.5%). Younger individuals were less likely to die by intentional drug overdose and carbon monoxide poisoning compared to older individuals. Younger individuals who died between Saturday and Monday were more likely to have had alcohol before dying. Substance abuse histories were similar in the two age groups. Conclusion: Based on this research it is recommended that strategies to reduce substance abuse be applied among 25-34-year-old individuals at risk of suicide. The wide use of hanging in young people should be taken into consideration for future means restriction strategies.

Effectiveness of Depression-Suicidal Behaviour Gatekeeper training among police officers in three European regions: outcomes of the Optimising Suicide Prevention Programmes and their Implementation in Europe (OSPI-Europe) study

Background: Gatekeeper training for community facilitators, to identify and respond to those at risk of suicide, forms an important part of multi-level community-based suicide prevention programmes. Aims: This study examined the effects of gatekeeper training on attitudes, knowledge and confidence of police officers in dealing with persons at risk of suicide. Methods: A total of 828 police officers across three European regions participated in a 4-hour training programme which addressed the epidemiology of depression and suicidal behaviour, symptoms of depression, warning signs and risk factors associated with suicidal behaviour, motivating help-seeking behaviour, dealing with acute suicidal crisis and informing bereaved relatives. Participants completed internationally validated questionnaires assessing stigmatising attitudes, knowledge about depression and confidence in dealing with suicidal persons pre- and post-training. Results: There were significant differences among countries in terms of previous exposure to suicidal persons and extent of previous training. Post-training evaluation demonstrated significant improvements in stigmatising attitudes, knowledge and confidence in all three countries. Conclusion: The consistently positive effects of gatekeeper training of police officers across different regions support inclusion of this type of training as a fundamental part of multi-level community-based suicide prevention programmes and roll-out, nationally and internationally.

Factors associated with hospitalization after suicide spectrum behaviors: results from a multicentre study in Spain

Objectives: to identify factors associated with admission after suicide spectrum behaviors. Methods: Patient's characteristics, the nature of their suicidal behavior, admission rates between centres, and factors associated with admission have been examined in suicide spectrum presentations to emergency departments in three Spanish cities. Results: Intent of the suicidal behavior had the greatest impact on hospitalization. Older age, living alone, self-harm method not involving drug overdose, previous history of suicide spectrum behaviors and psychiatric diagnosis of schizophrenia, mood or personality disorder were independently associated with being admitted. There was a three-fold between-centre difference in the rate of hospitalization. Conclusions: widespread differences in the rate of hospitalization were primarily accounted for by characteristics of the individual patients and their suicidal behavior.