Application of signal detection methods to fisheries management

The abundance of many commercially important fish stocks are declining and this has led to widespread concern on the performance of traditional approach in fisheries management. Quantitative models are used for obtaining estimates of population abundance and the management advice is based on annual harvest levels (TAC), where only a certain amount of catch is allowed from specific fish stocks. However, these models are data intensive and less useful when stocks have limited historical information. This study examined whether empirical stock indicators can be used to manage fisheries. The relationship between indicators and the underlying stock abundance is not direct and hence can be affected by disturbances that may account for both transient and persistent effects. Methods from Statistical Process Control (SPC) theory such as the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) control charts are useful in classifying these effects and hence they can be used to trigger management response only when a significant impact occurs to the stock biomass. This thesis explores how empirical indicators along with CUSUM can be used for monitoring, assessment and management of fish stocks. I begin my thesis by exploring various age based catch indicators, to identify those which are potentially useful in tracking the state of fish stocks. The sensitivity and response of these indicators towards changes in Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) showed that indicators based on age groups that are fully selected to the fishing gear or Large Fish Indicators (LFIs) are most useful and robust across the range of scenarios considered. The Decision-Interval (DI-CUSUM) and Self-Starting (SS-CUSUM) forms are the two types of control charts used in this study. In contrast to the DI-CUSUM, the SS-CUSUM can be initiated without specifying a target reference point (‘control mean’) to detect out-of-control (significant impact) situations. The sensitivity and specificity of SS-CUSUM showed that the performances are robust when LFIs are used. Once an out-of-control situation is detected, the next step is to determine how much shift has occurred in the underlying stock biomass. If an estimate of this shift is available, they can be used to update TAC by incorporation into Harvest Control Rules (HCRs). Various methods from Engineering Process Control (EPC) theory were tested to determine which method can measure the shift size in stock biomass with the highest accuracy. Results showed that methods based on Grubb’s harmonic rule gave reliable shift size estimates. The accuracy of these estimates can be improved by monitoring a combined indicator metric of stock-recruitment and LFI because this may account for impacts independent of fishing. The procedure of integrating both SPC and EPC is known as Statistical Process Adjustment (SPA). A HCR based on SPA was designed for DI-CUSUM and the scheme was successful in bringing out-of-control fish stocks back to its in-control state. The HCR was also tested using SS-CUSUM in the context of data poor fish stocks. Results showed that the scheme will be useful for sustaining the initial in-control state of the fish stock until more observations become available for quantitative assessments.

Training in and assessment of the procedural skills required to perform peripheral nerve blockade

The training and ongoing education of medical practitioners has undergone major changes in an incremental fashion over the past 15 years. These changes have been driven by patient safety, educational, economic and legislative/regulatory factors. In the near future, training in procedural skills will undergo a paradigm shift to proficiency based progression with associated requirements for competence-based programmes, valid, reliable assessment tools and simulation technology. Before training begins, the learning outcomes require clear definition; any form of assessment applied should include measurement of these outcomes. Currently training in a procedural skill often takes place on an ad hoc basis. The number of attempts necessary to attain a defined degree of proficiency varies from procedure to procedure. Convincing evidence exists that simulation training helps trainees to acquire skills more efficiently rather than relying on opportunities in their clinical practice. Simulation provides a safe, stress free environment for trainees for skill acquisition, generalization and transfer via deliberate practice. The work described in this thesis contributes to a greater understanding of how medical procedures can be performed more safely and effectively through education. The effect of feedback, provided to novices in a standardized setting on a bench model, based on knowledge of performance was associated with an increase in the speed of skill acquisition and a decrease in error rate during initial learning. The timing of feedback was also associated with effective learning of skill. A marked attrition of skills (independent of the type of feedback provided) was demonstrable 24 hrs after they have first been learned. Using the principles of feedback as described above, when studying the effect of an intense training program on novices of varied years of experience in anaesthesia (i.e. the present training programmes / courses of an intense training day for one or more procedures). There was a marked attrition of skill at 24 hours with a significant correlation with increasing years of experience; there also appeared to be an inverse relationship between years of experience in anaesthesia and performance. The greater the number of years of practice experience, the longer it required a learner to acquire a new skill. The findings of the studies described in this thesis may have important implications for the trainers, trainees and training bodies in the design and implementation of training courses and the formats of delivery of changing curricula. Both curricula and training modalities will need to take account of characteristics of individual learners and the dynamic nature of procedural healthcare.