Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

The impacts of past land-use on the ecology of an ancient woodland in south-west Ireland

A multi-disciplinary study was conducted to compare stands of ancient and secondary origin within a single wood, the Gearagh woodland, County Cork. These sites were compared with adjacent areas of grassland, which provided a reference for the former land-use (pasture) of the secondary woodland. A historical study confirmed that while the core of the Gearagh has been subject to minimal human interference, other sections have been cleared in the past for agricultural purposes. Investigations into soil structure and composition showed that soil properties in these secondary woodland areas were significantly altered by this past woodland clearance and conversion to agriculture, while the soil of the ancient woodland showed little signs of disturbance. The vegetation community also differed between the two woodland areas, partly due to altered environmental conditions. Many of the ancient woodland plant species were unable to form a persistent seed bank, while there was increased representation of species associated with more open-habitat conditions in the seed bank of the secondary woodland. While germination of woodland species was low in all sites, overall, seeds tended to germinate more successfully in the ancient woodland. The ancient woodland also provided a suitable habitat for many soil and ground detritivores, most notably enchytraeids, although earthworms were not abundant. Past agricultural use, however, changed the decomposer community considerably, with increased representation of earthworm species and a decline in the abundance of enchytraeids in the secondary stands. In conclusion, the legacies of historical agricultural activities can continue to significantly affect the structure and composition of present-day woodlands so that they may differ considerably from undisturbed ancient woodland stands, even within the same woodland. A greater understanding of the origin, development and ecological functioning of ancient woodlands should aid in determining future conservation and management requirements.

The examination of the traditional femininity and women’s lives in ancient China

This thesis explores the evolution of the concept of traditional Chinese femininity in relation to women’s lives in ancient China (221 BCE – A.D.1840). It proposes that the traditional Chinese femininity had been trying to seek a balance between the permanent principles and contingency plans for the stability and development of the society, which caused women’s humiliation and freedom. In reality, politicians and thinkers in ancient China had been transforming the concept of femininity itself to make it more adaptable to the social conditions of that time. This may be discussed in terms of three aspects. Firstly, the traditional concept of Chinese human relationships, including the ethical order, always emphasised the influence of individual behaviour on others and the overall stability and linked development of family, society and nation. Thus, both men and women, must be placed within this interrelated, interacting and cooperating relationship. Secondly, the association of family and country created an overlap of family and public affairs, which, objectively, facilitated the movement of women from the inner to the public arena. Thirdly, the notions of political and ethical morality and of men’s virtues and women’s virtues were integrated because of the union of family and nation. Therefore, typically virtuous women could be a source of encouragement for men and, furthermore, men formulated their virtues in the public space by formulating women’s virtues in the private space. The shaping of the gender image and concept of women in ancient China reflected the country’s changing cultural and gender norms. Chinese femininity and lifestyles, like Chinese history, were a continuous presence in the society but were also constantly changing. Through this study, it could be noted that Chinese women were not hidden and that their subjectivity and the concepts motivating them were not merely devised by a male-dominated society and culture.