Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States.

Engineering of metal oxide interfaces for renewable energy applications

Diminishing non-renewable energy resources and planet-wide de-pollution on our planet are among the major problems which mankind faces into the future. To solve these problems, renewable energy sources such as readily available and inexhaustible sunlight will have to be used. There are however no readily available photocatalysts that are photocatalytically active under visible light; it is well established that the band gap of the prototypical photocatalyst, titanium dioxide, is the UV region with the consequence that only 4% of sun light is utilized. For this reason, this PhD project focused on developing new materials, based on titanium dioxide, which can be used in visible light activated photocatalytic hydrogen production and destruction of pollutant molecules. The main goal of this project is to use simulations based on first principles to engineer and understand rationally, materials based on modifying TiO2 that will have the following properties: (1) a suitable band gap in order to increase the efficiency of visible light absorption, with a gap around 2 – 2.5 eV considered optimum. (2). The second key aspect in the photocatalytic process is electron and hole separation after photoexcitation, which enable oxidation/reduction reactions necessary to i.e. decompose pollutants. (3) Enhanced activity over unmodified TiO2. In this thesis I present results on new materials based on modifying TiO2 with supported metal oxide nanoclusters, from two classes, namely: transition metal oxides (Ti, Ni, Cu) and p-block metal oxides (Sn, Pb, Bi). We find that the deposited metal oxide nanoclusters are stable at rutile and anatase TiO2 surfaces and present an analysis of changes to the band gap of TiO2, identifying those modifiers that can change the band gap to the desirable range and the origin of this. A successful collaboration with experimental researchers in Japan confirms many of the simulation results where the origin of improved visible light photocatalytic activity of oxide nanocluster-modified TiO2 is now well understood. The work presented in this thesis, creates a road map for the design of materials with desired photocatalytic properties and contributes to better understanding these properties which are of great application in renewable energy utilization.

Feasibility of combined wind-wave energy platforms

The European Union has set out an ambitious 20% target for renewable energy use by 2020. It is expected that this will be met mainly by wind energy. Looking towards 2050, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of 80-95% are to be sought. Given the issues securing this target in the transport and agriculture sectors, it may only be possible to achieve this target if the power sector is carbon neutral well in advance of 2050. This has permitted the vast expansion of offshore renewables, wind, wave and tidal energy. Offshore wind has undergone rapid development in recent years however faces significant challenges up to 2020 to ensure commercial viability without the need for government subsidies. Wave energy is still in the very early stages of development so as yet there has been no commercial roll out. As both of these technologies are to face similar challenges in ensuring they are a viable alternative power generation method to fossil fuels, capitalising on the synergies is potentially a significant cost saving initiative. The advent of hybrid solutions in a variety of configurations is the subject of this thesis. A singular wind-wave energy platform embodies all the attributes of a hybrid system, including sharing space, transmission infrastructure, O&M activities and a platform/foundation. This configuration is the subject of this thesis, and it is found that an OWC Array platform with multi-MegaWatt wind turbines is a technically feasible, and potentially an economically feasible solution in the long term. Methods of design and analysis adopted in this thesis include numerical and physical modelling of power performance, structural analysis, fabrication cost modelling, simplified project economic modelling and time domain reliability modelling of a 210MW hybrid farm. The application of these design and analysis methods has resulted in a hybrid solution capable of producing energy at a cost between €0.22/kWh and €0.31/kWh depending on the source of funding for the project. Further optimisation through detailed design is expected to lower this further. This thesis develops new and existing methods of design and analysis of wind and wave energy devices. This streamlines the process of early stage development, while adhering to the widely adopted Concept Development Protocol, to develop a technically and economically feasible, combined wind-wave energy hybrid solution.

Skin and bone: the face in the archaeological imagination

Thirteen unique archaeological countenances from Ireland were produced through the Manchester method of facial reconstruction. Their gaze prompts a space for a broad discourse regarding the face found within human and artefactual remains of Ireland. These faces are reminders of the human element which is at the core of the discipline of archaeology. These re-constructions create a voyeuristic relationship with the past. At once sating a curiosity about the past, facial reconstructions also provide a catharsis to our presently situated selves. As powerful visual documents, archaeological facial reconstructions illustrate re-presentations of the past as well as how the present can be connected to the past. Through engagment with Emmanuel Levinas’s (1906- 1995) main philosophical themes, the presence of the face is examined in a diachronic structure. The ‘starting point’ is the Neolithic period which has been associated with the notion of visuality with a reconstruction from the early Neolithic site of Annagh, Co. Limerick. The following layer of analysis appears with attention to intersubjectivity in the early medieval period with facial reconstructions from Dooey, Co. Donegal and Owenbristy, Co. Galway. Building upon the past concepts, the late medieval period is associated with the notion of alterity and paired with faces from Ballinderry, Co. Kildare and a sample of males from Gallen Priory, Co. Offaly. The final layer of examination culminates with the application of response and respons-ibility to the post-medieval Irish landscape with facial reconstructions from the prison on Spike Island, Co. Cork. These layers of investigation are similar to the stratigraphical composition of both the archaeological landscape and the skeletal/soft tissue landscape of the face. The separation of the neglected phenomenon of the face from the overwhelming embrace of the field of craniometrics is necessary. Through this detachment a new manner in which to discuss the face and its place within the (bio)archaeological record is possible. Encountering the faces seen in mortuary contexts, material culture, and archaeological facial reconstructions, inform and shape the archaeological imagination.