Investment funds: What next?

Investment funds provide a low cost method of sharing in the rewards from capitalism. Recently “alternative investments” such as hedge funds have grown rapidly and the trading strategies open to hedge funds are now becoming available to mutual funds and even to ordinary retail investors. In this paper we analyze problems in assessing fund performance and the prospects for investment fund sectors. Choosing genuine outperformers among top funds requires a careful assessment of non-normality, order statistics and the possibility of false discoveries. The risk adjusted performance of the average hedge fund over the last 10-15 is actually not that impressive, although the “top” funds do appear to have statistically significant positive alphas.

Investment incentives and valuation of power sector infrastructure assets with increasing interconnection, intermittency and decarbonisation

This dissertation applies a variety of quantitative methods to electricity and carbon market data, utility company accounts data, capital and operating costs to analyse some of the challenges associated with investment in energy assets. In particular, three distinct research topics are analysed within this general theme: the efficiency of interconnector trading, the optimal sizing of intermittent wind facilities and the impact of carbon pricing on the cost of capital for investors are researched in successive sections.

Irish state infrastructural investment: an analysis of past patterns, and an outline of a future integrated systems of systems evaluation methodology

The literature clearly links the quality and capacity of a country’s infrastructure to its economic growth and competitiveness. This thesis analyses the historic national and spatial distribution of investment by the Irish state in its physical networks (water, wastewater and roads) across the 34 local authorities and examines how Ireland is perceived internationally relative to its economic counterparts. An appraisal of the current status and shortcomings of Ireland’s infrastructure is undertaken using key stakeholders from foreign direct investment companies and national policymakers to identify Ireland's infrastructural gaps, along with current challenges in how the country is delivering infrastructure. The output of these interviews identified many issues with how infrastructure decision-making is currently undertaken. This led to an evaluation of how other countries are informing decision-making, and thus this thesis presents a framework of how and why Ireland should embrace a Systems of Systems (SoS) methodology approach to infrastructure decision-making going forward. In undertaking this study a number of other infrastructure challenges were identified: significant political interference in infrastructure decision-making and delivery the need for a national agency to remove the existing ‘silo’ type of mentality to infrastructure delivery how tax incentives can interfere with the market; and their significance. The two key infrastructure gaps identified during the interview process were: the need for government intervention in the rollout of sufficient communication capacity and at a competitive cost outside of Dublin; and the urgent need to address water quality and capacity with approximately 25% of the population currently being served by water of unacceptable quality. Despite considerable investment in its national infrastructure, Ireland’s infrastructure performance continues to trail behind its economic partners in the Eurozone and OECD. Ireland is projected to have the highest growth rate in the euro zone region in 2015 and 2016, albeit that it required a bailout in 2010, and, at the time of writing, is beginning to invest in its infrastructure networks again. This thesis proposes the development and implementation of a SoS approach for infrastructure decision-making which would be based on: existing spatial and capacity data of each of the constituent infrastructure networks; and scenario computation and analysis of alternative drivers eg. Demographic change, economic variability and demand/capacity constraints. The output from such an analysis would provide valuable evidence upon which policy makers and decision makers alike could rely, which has been lacking in historic investment decisions.

Development of miniaturized wireless sensor nodes suitable for building energy management and modelling

Buildings consume 40% of Ireland's total annual energy translating to 3.5 billion (2004). The EPBD directive (effective January 2003) places an onus on all member states to rate the energy performance of all buildings in excess of 50m2. Energy and environmental performance management systems for residential buildings do not exist and consist of an ad-hoc integration of wired building management systems and Monitoring & Targeting systems for non-residential buildings. These systems are unsophisticated and do not easily lend themselves to cost effective retrofit or integration with other enterprise management systems. It is commonly agreed that a 15-40% reduction of building energy consumption is achievable by efficiently operating buildings when compared with typical practice. Existing research has identified that the level of information available to Building Managers with existing Building Management Systems and Environmental Monitoring Systems (BMS/EMS) is insufficient to perform the required performance based building assessment. The cost of installing additional sensors and meters is extremely high, primarily due to the estimated cost of wiring and the needed labour. From this perspective wireless sensor technology provides the capability to provide reliable sensor data at the required temporal and spatial granularity associated with building energy management. In this paper, a wireless sensor network mote hardware design and implementation is presented for a building energy management application. Appropriate sensors were selected and interfaced with the developed system based on user requirements to meet both the building monitoring and metering requirements. Beside the sensing capability, actuation and interfacing to external meters/sensors are provided to perform different management control and data recording tasks associated with minimisation of energy consumption in the built environment and the development of appropriate Building information models(BIM)to enable the design and development of energy efficient spaces.

At what price? A cost-effectiveness analysis comparing trial of labour after previous caesarean versus elective repeat caesarean delivery

Background: Elective repeat caesarean delivery (ERCD) rates have been increasing worldwide, thus prompting obstetric discourse on the risks and benefits for the mother and infant. Yet, these increasing rates also have major economic implications for the health care system. Given the dearth of information on the cost-effectiveness related to mode of delivery, the aim of this paper was to perform an economic evaluation on the costs and short-term maternal health consequences associated with a trial of labour after one previous caesarean delivery compared with ERCD for low risk women in Ireland.Methods: Using a decision analytic model, a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) was performed where the measure of health gain was quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a six-week time horizon. A review of international literature was conducted to derive representative estimates of adverse maternal health outcomes following a trial of labour after caesarean (TOLAC) and ERCD. Delivery/procedure costs derived from primary data collection and combined both "bottom-up" and "top-down" costing estimations.Results: Maternal morbidities emerged in twice as many cases in the TOLAC group than the ERCD group. However, a TOLAC was found to be the most-effective method of delivery because it was substantially less expensive than ERCD ((sic)1,835.06 versus (sic)4,039.87 per women, respectively), and QALYs were modestly higher (0.84 versus 0.70). Our findings were supported by probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Conclusions: Clinicians need to be well informed of the benefits and risks of TOLAC among low risk women. Ideally, clinician-patient discourse would address differences in length of hospital stay and postpartum recovery time. While it is premature advocate a policy of TOLAC across maternity units, the results of the study prompt further analysis and repeat iterations, encouraging future studies to synthesis previous research and new and relevant evidence under a single comprehensive decision model.

Development of low-cost sensing and separation devices based on macro, micro and nano technology for health applications

The work presented in this thesis described the development of low-cost sensing and separation devices with electrochemical detections for health applications. This research employs macro, micro and nano technology. The first sensing device developed was a tonerbased micro-device. The initial development of microfluidic devices was based on glass or quartz devices that are often expensive to fabricate; however, the introduction of new types of materials, such as plastics, offered a new way for fast prototyping and the development of disposable devices. One such microfluidic device is based on the lamination of laser-printed polyester films using a computer, printer and laminator. The resulting toner-based microchips demonstrated a potential viability for chemical assays, coupled with several detection methods, particularly Chip-Electrophoresis-Chemiluminescence (CE-CL) detection which has never been reported in the literature. Following on from the toner-based microchip, a three-electrode micro-configuration was developed on acetate substrate. This is the first time that a micro-electrode configuration made from gold; silver and platinum have been fabricated onto acetate by means of patterning and deposition techniques using the central fabrication facilities in Tyndall National Institute. These electrodes have been designed to facilitate the integration of a 3- electrode configuration as part of the fabrication process. Since the electrodes are on acetate the dicing step can automatically be eliminated. The stability of these sensors has been investigated using electrochemical techniques with excellent outcomes. Following on from the generalised testing of the electrodes these sensors were then coupled with capillary electrophoresis. The final sensing devices were on a macro scale and involved the modifications of screenprinted electrodes. Screen-printed electrodes (SPE) are generally seen to be far less sensitive than the more expensive electrodes including the gold, boron-doped diamond and glassy carbon electrodes. To enhance the sensitivity of these electrodes they were treated with metal nano-particles, gold and palladium. Following on from this, another modification was introduced. The carbonaceous material carbon monolith was drop-cast onto the SPE and then the metal nano-particles were electrodeposited onto the monolith material

Cost savings from relaxation of operational constraints on a power system with high wind penetration

Wind energy is predominantly a nonsynchronous generation source. Large-scale integration of wind generation with existing electricity systems, therefore, presents challenges in maintaining system frequency stability and local voltage stability. Transmission system operators have implemented system operational constraints (SOCs) in order to maintain stability with high wind generation, but imposition of these constraints results in higher operating costs. A mixed integer programming tool was used to simulate generator dispatch in order to assess the impact of various SOCs on generation costs. Interleaved day-ahead scheduling and real-time dispatch models were developed to allow accurate representation of forced outages and wind forecast errors, and were applied to the proposed Irish power system of 2020 with a wind penetration of 32%. Savings of at least 7.8% in generation costs and reductions in wind curtailment of 50% were identified when the most influential SOCs were relaxed. The results also illustrate the need to relax local SOCs together with the system-wide nonsynchronous penetration limit SOC, as savings from increasing the nonsynchronous limit beyond 70% were restricted without relaxation of local SOCs. The methodology and results allow for quantification of the costs of SOCs, allowing the optimal upgrade path for generation and transmission infrastructure to be determined.

Valuing maternity care: a comparison of stated preference methods with an application to cost-benefit analysis

This research investigates whether a reconfiguration of maternity services, which collocates consultant- and midwifery-led care, reflects demand and value for money in Ireland. Qualitative and quantitative research is undertaken to investigate demand and an economic evaluation is performed to evaluate the costs and benefits of the different models of care. Qualitative research is undertaken to identify women’s motivations when choosing place of delivery. These data are further used to inform two stated preference techniques: a discrete choice experiment (DCE) and contingent valuation method (CVM). These are employed to identify women’s strengths of preferences for different features of care (DCE) and estimate women’s willingness to pay for maternity care (CVM), which is used to inform a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) on consultant- and midwifery-led care. The qualitative research suggests women do not have a clear preference for consultant or midwifery-led care, but rather a hybrid model of care which closely resembles the Domiciliary Care In and Out of Hospital (DOMINO) scheme. Women’s primary concern during care is safety, meaning women would only utilise midwifery-led care when co-located with consultant-led care. The DCE also finds women’s preferred package of care closely mirrors the DOMINO scheme with 39% of women expected to utilise this service. Consultant- and midwifery-led care would then be utilised by 34% and 27% of women, respectively. The CVM supports this hierarchy of preferences where consultant-led care is consistently valued more than midwifery-led care – women are willing to pay €956.03 for consultant-led care and €808.33 for midwifery-led care. A package of care for a woman availing of consultant- and midwifery-led care is estimated to cost €1,102.72 and €682.49, respectively. The CBA suggests both models of care are cost-beneficial and should be pursued in Ireland. This reconfiguration of maternity services would maximise women’s utility, while fulfilling important objectives of key government policy.