Early detection of delirium in older medical inpatients: prodrome, predictors and motor subtyping

Background Delirium is highly prevalent, especially in older patients. It independently leads to adverse outcomes, but remains under-detected, particularly hypoactive forms. Although early identification and intervention is important, delirium prevention is key to improving outcomes. The delirium prodrome concept has been mooted for decades, but remains poorly characterised. Greater understanding of this prodrome would promote prompt identification of delirium-prone patients, and facilitate improved strategies for delirium prevention and management. Methods Medical inpatients of ≥70 years were screened for prevalent delirium using the Revised Delirium Rating Scale (DRS--‐R98). Those without prevalent delirium were assessed daily for delirium development, prodromal features and motor subtype. Survival analysis models identified which prodromal features predicted the emergence of incident delirium in the cohort in the first week of admission. The Delirium Motor Subtype Scale-4 was used to ascertain motor subtype. Results Of 555 patients approached, 191 patients were included in the prospective study. The median age was 80 (IQR 10) and 101 (52.9%) were male. Sixty-one patients developed incident delirium within a week of admission. Several prodromal features predicted delirium emergence in the cohort. Firstly, using a novel Prodromal Checklist based on the existing literature, and controlling for confounders, seven predictive behavioural features were identified in the prodromal period (for example, increasing confusion; and being easily distractible). Additionally, using serial cognitive tests and the DRS-R98 daily, multiple cognitive and other core delirium features were detected in the prodrome (for example inattention; and sleep-wake cycle disturbance). Examining longitudinal motor subtypes in delirium cases, subtypes were found to be predominantly stable over time, the most prevalent being hypoactive subtype (62.3%). Discussion This thesis explored multiple aspects of delirium in older medical inpatients, with particular focus on the characterisation of the delirium prodrome. These findings should help to inform future delirium educational programmes, and detection and prevention strategies.

Oral cancer incidence and survival rates in the Republic of Ireland, 1994-2009

Background: Oral cancer is a significant public health problem world-wide and exerts high economic, social, psychological, and physical burdens on patients, their families, and on their primary care providers. We set out to describe the changing trends in incidence and survival rates of oral cancer in Ireland between 1994 and 2009. Methods: National data on incident oral cancers [ICD 10 codes C01-C06] were obtained from the National Cancer Registry Ireland from 1994 to 2009. We estimated annual percentage change (APC) in oral cancer incidence during 1994–2009 using joinpoint regression software (version 4.2.0.2). The lifetime risk of oral cancer to age 79 was estimated using Irish incidence and population data from 2007 to 2009. Survival rates were also examined using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models to explore the influence of several demographic/lifestyle covariates with follow-up to end 2012. Results: Data were obtained on 2,147 oral cancer incident cases. Men accounted for two-thirds of oral cancer cases (n = 1,430). Annual rates in men decreased significantly during 1994–2001 (APC = -4.8 %, 95 % CI: −8.7 to −0.7) and then increased moderately (APC = 2.3 %, 95 % CI: −0.9 to 5.6). In contrast, annual incidence increased significantly in women throughout the study period (APC = 3.2 %, 95 % CI: 1.9 to 4.6). There was an elevated risk of death among oral cancer patients who were: older than 60 years of age; smokers; unemployed or retired; those living in the most deprived areas; and those whose tumour was sited in the base of the tongue. Being married and diagnosed in more recent years were associated with reduced risk of death. Conclusion: Oral cancer increased significantly in both sexes between 1999 and 2009 in Ireland. Our analyses demonstrate the influence of measured factors such as smoking, time of diagnosis and age on observed trends. Unmeasured factors such as alcohol use, HPV and dietary factors may also be contributing to increased trends. Several of these are modifiable risk factors which are crucial for informing public health policies, and thus more research is needed.