Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting

Wind energy is the energy source that contributes most to the renewable energy mix of European countries. While there are good wind resources throughout Europe, the intermittency of the wind represents a major problem for the deployment of wind energy into the electricity networks. To ensure grid security a Transmission System Operator needs today for each kilowatt of wind energy either an equal amount of spinning reserve or a forecasting system that can predict the amount of energy that will be produced from wind over a period of 1 to 48 hours. In the range from 5m/s to 15m/s a wind turbine’s production increases with a power of three. For this reason, a Transmission System Operator requires an accuracy for wind speed forecasts of 1m/s in this wind speed range. Forecasting wind energy with a numerical weather prediction model in this context builds the background of this work. The author’s goal was to present a pragmatic solution to this specific problem in the ”real world”. This work therefore has to be seen in a technical context and hence does not provide nor intends to provide a general overview of the benefits and drawbacks of wind energy as a renewable energy source. In the first part of this work the accuracy requirements of the energy sector for wind speed predictions from numerical weather prediction models are described and analysed. A unique set of numerical experiments has been carried out in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute to investigate the forecast quality of an operational numerical weather prediction model for this purpose. The results of this investigation revealed that the accuracy requirements for wind speed and wind power forecasts from today’s numerical weather prediction models can only be met at certain times. This means that the uncertainty of the forecast quality becomes a parameter that is as important as the wind speed and wind power itself. To quantify the uncertainty of a forecast valid for tomorrow requires an ensemble of forecasts. In the second part of this work such an ensemble of forecasts was designed and verified for its ability to quantify the forecast error. This was accomplished by correlating the measured error and the forecasted uncertainty on area integrated wind speed and wind power in Denmark and Ireland. A correlation of 93% was achieved in these areas. This method cannot solve the accuracy requirements of the energy sector. By knowing the uncertainty of the forecasts, the focus can however be put on the accuracy requirements at times when it is possible to accurately predict the weather. Thus, this result presents a major step forward in making wind energy a compatible energy source in the future.

Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.

Soft sediment ecology of Lough Hyne Marine Reserve - spatial and temporal patterns

Distribution of soft sediment benthic fauna and the environmental factors affecting them were studied, to investigate changes across spatial and temporal scales. Investigations took place at Lough Hyne Marine Reserve using a range of methods. Data on the sedimentation rates of organic and inorganic matter were collected at monthly intervals for one year at a number of sites around the Lough, by use of vertical midwater-column sediment traps. Sedimentation of these two fractions were not coupled; inorganic matter sedimentation depended on hydrodynamic and weather factors, while the organic matter sedimentation was more complex, being dependent on biological and chemical processes in the water column. The effects of regular hypoxic episodes on benthic fauna due to a natural seasonal thermocline were studied in the deep Western Trough, using camera-equipped remotely-operated vehicle to follow transects, on a three-monthly basis over one year. In late summer, the area below the thermocline of the Western Trough was devoid of visible fauna. Decapod crustaceans were the first taxon to make use of ameliorating oxygen conditions in autumn, by darting below the thermocline depth, most likely to scavenge. This was indicated by tracks that they left on the surface of the Trough floor. Some species, most noticeably Fries’ goby Lesueurigobius friesii, migrated below the thermocline depth when conditions were normoxic and established semi-permanent burrows. Their population encompassed all size classes, indicating that this habitat was not limited to juveniles of this territorial species. Recolonisation by macrofauna and burrowing megafauna was studied during normoxic conditions, from November 2009 to May 2010. Macrofauna displayed a typical post-disturbance pattern of recolonisation with one species, the polychaete Scalibregma inflatum, occurring at high abundance levels in March 2010. In May, this population had become significantly reduced and a more diverse community was established. The abundance of burrowing infauna comprising decapods crabs and Fries’ gobies, was estimated by identifying and counting their distinctive burrow structures. While above the summer thermocline depth, burrow abundance increased in a linear fashion, below the thermocline depth a slight reduction of burrow abundance occurred in May, when oxygen conditions deteriorated again. The majority of the burrows occurring in May were made by Fries’ gobies, which are thought to encounter low oxygen concentrations in their burrows. Reduction in burrow abundance of burrowing shrimps Calocaris macandreae and Callianassa subterranea (based on descriptions of burrow structures from the literature), from March to May, might be related to their reduced activity in hypoxia, leading to loss of structural burrow maintenance. Spatial and temporal changes to macrofaunal assemblage structures were studied seasonally for one year across 5 sites in the Lough and subject to multivariate statistical analysis. Assemblage structures were significantly correlated with organic matter levels in the sediment, the amounts of organic matter settling out of the water column one month before macrofaunal sampling took place as well as current speed and temperature. This study was the first to investigate patterns and processes in the Lough soft sediment ecology across all 3 basins on a temporal and spatial scale. An investigation into the oceanographic aspects of the development, behaviour and break-down of the summer thermocline of Lough Hyne was performed in collaboration with researchers from other Irish institutions.

Power system parameters forecasting using Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. A part from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The second section presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learningbased algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting.