3 resultados para Holt-Winters
em CORA - Cork Open Research Archive - University College Cork - Ireland
Resumo:
The aim of this study was to develop a methodology, based on satellite remote sensing, to estimate the vegetation Start of Season (SOS) across the whole island of Ireland on an annual basis. This growing body of research is known as Land Surface Phenology (LSP) monitoring. The SOS was estimated for each year from a 7-year time series of 10-day composited, 1.2 km reduced resolution MERIS Global Vegetation Index (MGVI) data from 2003 to 2009, using the time series analysis software, TIMESAT. The selection of a 10-day composite period was guided by in-situ observations of leaf unfolding and cloud cover at representative point locations on the island. The MGVI time series was smoothed and the SOS metric extracted at a point corresponding to 20% of the seasonal MGVI amplitude. The SOS metric was extracted on a per pixel basis and gridded for national scale coverage. There were consistent spatial patterns in the SOS grids which were replicated on an annual basis and were qualitatively linked to variation in landcover. Analysis revealed that three statistically separable groups of CORINE Land Cover (CLC) classes could be derived from differences in the SOS, namely agricultural and forest land cover types, peat bogs, and natural and semi-natural vegetation types. These groups demonstrated that managed vegetation, e.g. pastures has a significantly earlier SOS than in unmanaged vegetation e.g. natural grasslands. There was also interannual spatio-temporal variability in the SOS. Such variability was highlighted in a series of anomaly grids showing variation from the 7-year mean SOS. An initial climate analysis indicated that an anomalously cold winter and spring in 2005/2006, linked to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation index value, delayed the 2006 SOS countrywide, while in other years the SOS anomalies showed more complex variation. A correlation study using air temperature as a climate variable revealed the spatial complexity of the air temperature-SOS relationship across the Republic of Ireland as the timing of maximum correlation varied from November to April depending on location. The SOS was found to occur earlier due to warmer winters in the Southeast while it was later with warmer winters in the Northwest. The inverse pattern emerged in the spatial patterns of the spring correlates. This contrasting pattern would appear to be linked to vegetation management as arable cropping is typically practiced in the southeast while there is mixed agriculture and mostly pastures to the west. Therefore, land use as well as air temperature appears to be an important determinant of national scale patterns in the SOS. The TIMESAT tool formed a crucial component of the estimation of SOS across the country in all seven years as it minimised the negative impact of noise and data dropouts in the MGVI time series by applying a smoothing algorithm. The extracted SOS metric was sensitive to temporal and spatial variation in land surface vegetation seasonality while the spatial patterns in the gridded SOS estimates aligned with those in landcover type. The methodology can be extended for a longer time series of FAPAR as MERIS will be replaced by the ESA Sentinel mission in 2013, while the availability of full resolution (300m) MERIS FAPAR and equivalent sensor products holds the possibility of monitoring finer scale seasonality variation. This study has shown the utility of the SOS metric as an indicator of spatiotemporal variability in vegetation phenology, as well as a correlate of other environmental variables such as air temperature. However, the satellite-based method is not seen as a replacement of ground-based observations, but rather as a complementary approach to studying vegetation phenology at the national scale. In future, the method can be extended to extract other metrics of the seasonal cycle in order to gain a more comprehensive view of seasonal vegetation development.
Resumo:
This study was undertaken to investigate the general biology, including the reproductive cycle and health status, of two clam taxa in Irish waters, with particular reference to the Irish Sea area. Monthly samples of the soft shell clam, Mya arenaria, were collected from Bannow Bay, Co. Wexford, Ireland, for sixteen months, and of the razor clam, Ensis spp. from the Skerries region (Irish Sea) between June 2010 and September 2011. In 2010, M. arenaria in Bannow Bay matured over the summer months, with both sexes either ripe or spawning by August. The gonads of both sexes of E. siliqua developed over autumn and winter 2010, with the first spawning individuals being recorded in January 2011. Two unusually cold winters, followed by a warmer than average spring, appear to have affected M. arenaria and E. siliqua gametogenesis at these sites. It was noted that wet weight of E. siliqua dropped significantly in the summer of both 2010 and 2011, after spawning, which may impact on the economic viability of fishing during this period. Additional samples of M. arenaria were collected at Flaxfort (Ireland), and Ensis spp. at Oxwich (Wales), and the pathology of all clams was examined using both histological and molecular methods. No pathogenic conditions were observed in M. arenaria while Prokaryote inclusions, trematode parasites, Nematopsis spp. and inflammatory pathologies were observed at low incidences in razor clams from Ireland but not from Wales; the first time these conditions have been reported in Ensis spp. in northern European waters. Mya arenaria from sites in Europe and eastern and western North America were investigated for genetic variation using both mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase I (COI) and 16S ribosomal RNA genes) and nuclear markers (10 microsatellite loci). Both mitochondrial CO1 and all nuclear markers showed reduced levels of variation in certain European samples, with significant differences in haplotype and allelic composition between most samples, particularly those from the two different continents, but with the same common haplotypes or alleles throughout the range. The appearance of certain unique rare haplotypes and microsatellite alleles in the European samples suggest a complicated origin involving North American colonization but also possible southern European Pleistocene refugia. Specimens of Ensis spp. were obtained from five coastal areas around Ireland and Wales and species-specific PCR primers were used to amplify the internal transcribed spacer region 1 (ITS1) and the mitochondrial DNA CO1 gene and all but 15 razor clams were identified as Ensis siliqua. Future investigations should focus on continued monitoring of reproductive biology and pathology of the two clam taxa (in particular, to assess the influence of environmental change), and on genetics of southern European M. arenaria and sequencing the CO1 gene in Ensis individuals to clarify species identity
Resumo:
Little is known about the biology of the softshell clam in Europe, despite it being identified as a potential species to culture for food in the future. Monthly samples of the softshell clam, Mya arenaria, were collected intertidally from Co. Wexford, Ireland, over a period of sixteen months. The mean weight of sampled individuals was 7 4 ± 4 . 9 g and mean length was 8 . 2 ± 0 . 2 cm. Histological examination revealed a female-to-male ratio of 1 : 1.15. In 2010, M. arenaria at this site matured over the summer months, with both sexes either ripe or spawning by August. A single spawning event was recorded in 2010, completed by November. Two unusually cold winters, followed by a warmer-than-average spring, appear to have affected M. arenaria gametogenesis in this area, potentially affecting the time of spawning, fertilisation success, and recruitment of this species. No hermaphrodites were observed in the samples collected, nor were any pathogens observed. Timing of development and spawning is compared with the coasts of eastern North America and with other European coasts.