Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Assessment of dietary background exposure of the Irish adult population to dioxins and PCBs particularly taking into account additional exposure due to the 2008 Irish dioxin food contamination incident

Irish monitoring data on PCDD/Fs, DL-PCBs and Marker PCBs were collated and combined with Irish Adult Food Consumption Data, to estimate dietary background exposure of Irish adults to dioxins and PCBs. Furthermore, all available information on the 2008 Irish pork dioxin food contamination incident was collated and analysed with a view to evaluate any potential impact the incident may have had on general dioxin and PCB background exposure levels estimated for the adult population in Ireland. The average upperbound daily intake of Irish adults to dioxins Total WHO TEQ (2005) (PCDD/Fs & DLPCBs) from environmental background contamination, was estimated at 0.3 pg/kg bw/d and at the 95th percentile at 1 pg/kg bw/d. The average upperbound daily intake of Irish adults to the sum of 6 Marker PCBs from environmental background contamination ubiquitous in the environment was estimated at 1.6 ng/kg bw/d and at the 95th percentile at 6.8 ng/kg bw/d. Dietary background exposure estimates for both dioxins and PCBs indicate that the Irish adult population has exposures below the European average, a finding which is also supported by the levels detected in breast milk of Irish mothers. Exposure levels are below health based guidance values and/or Body Burdens associated with the TWI (for dioxins) or associated with a NOAEL (for PCBs). Given the current toxicological knowledge, based on biomarker data and estimated dietary exposure, general background exposure of the Irish adult population to dioxins and PCBs is of no human health concern. In 2008, a porcine fat sample taken as part of the national residues monitoring programme led to the detection of a major feed contamination incidence in the Republic of Ireland. The source of the contamination was traced back to the use of contaminated oil in a direct-drying feed operation system. Congener profiles in animal fat and feed samples showed a high level of consistency and pinpointed the likely source of fuel contamination to be a highly chlorinated commercial PCB mixture. To estimate additional exposure to dioxins and PCBs due to the contamination of pig and cattle herds, collection and a systematic review of all data associated with the contamination incident was conducted. A model was devised that took into account the proportion of contaminated product reaching the final consumer during the 90 day contamination incident window. For a 90 day period, the total additional exposure to Total TEQ (PCDD/F &DL-PCB) WHO (2005) amounted to 407 pg/kg bw/90d at the 95th percentile and 1911 pg/kg bw/90d at the 99th percentile. Exposure estimates derived for both dioxins and PCBs showed that the Body Burden of the general population remained largely unaffected by the contamination incident and approximately 10 % of the adult population in Ireland was exposed to elevated levels of dioxins and PCBs. Whilst people in this 10 % cohort experienced quite a significant additional load to the existing body burden, the estimated exposure values do not indicate approximation of body burdens associated with adverse health effects, based on current knowledge. The exposure period was also limited in time to approximately 3 months, following the FSAI recall of contaminated meat immediately on detection of the contamination. A follow up breast milk study on Irish first time mothers conducted in 2009/2010 did not show any increase in concentrations compared to the study conducted in 2002. The latter supports the conclusion that the majority of the Irish adult population was not affected by the contamination incident.

Composition portfolio and commentaries

In an attempt to provide an analytical entry point into my compositional practice, I have identified eight themes which are significantly recurrent: reduction – the selection of a small number of elements; imperfection – a damaged or warped characteristic of sound; hierarchy – a concern with the roles of instruments with regard to their relative prominence; motion – apparently static sound masses consist of fine internal movement; listener perception – expectations for change influence the experience of affect; translation – the transitioning of electronic sounds to the acoustic realm, and vice versa; immersion – the creation of an accommodating soundscape; blurring – smearing and overlapping sounds or genres. Each of these eight factors is associated with relevant precedents in the history and theory of music that have been influential on my work. These include the minimalist compositions of Steve Reich and Arvo Pärt; the lo-fi aesthetic of Boards of Canada and My Bloody Valentine; concerns with political hierarchy in the work of Louis Andriessen; the variations of dynamics and microtonal shifts of Giacinto Scelsi; Leonard B. Meyer's account of expectation in music; cross-fertilisation of the acoustic and electronic in pieces by Gérard Grisey and Gyorgy Ligeti; the immersive technique of Brian Eno's ambient music; and the overlapping sounds of Aphex Twin. These eight factors are variously applicable to the eleven submitted pieces, which are individually analysed with reference to the most significant of the categories. Together they form a musical language that sustains the interaction of a variety of techniques, concepts and genres.

Leisure and surveillance in Irish childhoods: A cross-class study of Cork city

This research provides an interpretive cross-class analysis of the leisure experience of children, aged between six and ten years, living in Cork city. This study focuses on the cultural dispositions underpinning parental decisions in relation to children’s leisure activities, with a particular emphasis on their child-surveillance practices. In this research, child-surveillance is defined as the adult monitoring of children by technological means, physical supervision, community supervision, or adult supervised activities (Nelson, 2010; Lareau, 2003; Fotel and Thomsen, 2004). This research adds significantly to understandings of Irish childhood by providing the first in-depth qualitative analysis of the surveillance of children’s leisure-time. Since the 1990s, international research on children has highlighted the increasingly structured nature of children’s leisure-time (Lareau, 2011; Valentine & McKendrick, 1997). Furthermore, research on child-surveillance has found an increase in the intensive supervision of children during their unstructured leisure-time (Nelson, 2010; Furedi, 2008; Fotel and Thomsen, 2004). This research bridges the gap between these two key bodies of literature, providing a more integrated overview of children’s experience of leisure in Ireland. Using Bourdieu’s (1992) model of habitus, field and capital, the dispositions that shape parents’ decisions about their children’s leisure time are interrogated. The holistic view of childhood adopted in this research echoes the ‘Whole Child Approach’ by analysing the child’s experience within a wider set of social relationships including family, school, and community. Underpinned by James and Prout’s (1990) paradigm on childhood, this study considers Irish children’s agency in negotiating with parents’ decisions regarding leisure-time. The data collated in this study enhances our understanding of the micro-interactions between parents and children and, the ability of the child to shape their own experience. Moreover, this is the first Irish sociological research to identify and discuss class distinctions in children’s agentic potential during leisure-time.

A corpus-driven error analysis of the oral and written production of Leaving Certificate Spanish learners

The Leaving Certificate (LC) is the national, standardised state examination in Ireland necessary for entry to third level education – this presents a massive, raw corpus of data with the potential to yield invaluable insight into the phenomena of learner interlanguage. With samples of official LC Spanish examination data, this project has compiled a digitised corpus of learner Spanish comprised of the written and oral production of 100 candidates. This corpus was then analysed using a specific investigative corpus technique, Computer-aided Error Analysis (CEA, Dagneaux et al, 1998). CEA is a powerful apparatus in that it greatly facilitates the quantification and analysis of a large learner corpus in digital format. The corpus was both compiled and analysed with the use of UAM Corpus Tool (O’Donnell 2013). This Tool allows for the recording of candidate-specific variables such as grade, examination level, task type and gender, therefore allowing for critical analysis of the corpus as one unit, as separate written and oral sub corpora and also of performance per task, level and gender. This is an interdisciplinary work combining aspects of Applied Linguistics, Learner Corpus Research and Foreign Language (FL) Learning. Beginning with a review of the context of FL learning in Ireland and Europe, I go on to discuss the disciplinary context and theoretical framework for this work and outline the methodology applied. I then perform detailed quantitative and qualitative analyses before going on to combine all research findings outlining principal conclusions. This investigation does not make a priori assumptions about the data set, the LC Spanish examination, the context of FLs or of any aspect of learner competence. It undertakes to provide the linguistic research community and the domain of Spanish language learning and pedagogy in Ireland with an empirical, descriptive profile of real learner performance, characterising learner difficulty.