Quaternary geology of the German North Sea and Western Irish Sea Mud Belt: revised stratigraphies, geotechnical properties, sedimentology and anthropogenic impacts

The climatic development of the Mid to Late Quaternary (last 400,000 years) is characterised by fluctuation between glacial and interglacial periods leading to the present interglacial, the Holocene. In comparison to preceding periods it was believed the Holocene represented a time of relative climatic stability. However, recent work has shown that the Holocene can be divided into cooler periods such as the Little Ice Age alternating with time intervals where climatic conditions ameliorated i.e. Medieval Warm Period, Holocene Thermal Optimum and the present Modern Optimum. In addition, the Holocene is recognised as a period with increasing anthropogenic influence on the environment. Onshore records recording glacial/interglacial cycles as well as anthropogenic effects are limited. However, sites of sediment accumulation on the shallow continental shelf offer the potential to reconstruct these events. Such sites include tunnel valleys and low energy, depositional settings. In this study we interrogated the sediment stratigraphy at such sites in the North Sea and Irish Sea using traditional techniques, as well as novel applications of geotechnical data, to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental record. Within the German North Sea sector a combination of core, seismic and in-situ Cone Penetration Testing (CPT) data was used to identify sedimentary units, place them within a morphological context, relate them to glacial or interglacial periods stratigraphically, and correlate them across the German North Sea. Subsequently, we were able to revise the Mid to Late Quaternary stratigraphy for the North Sea using this new and novel data. Similarly, Holocene environmental changes were investigated within the Irish Sea at a depositional site with active anthropogenic influence. The methods used included analyses on grain-size distribution, foraminifera, gamma spectrometry, AMS 14C and physical core logging. The investigation revealed a strong fluctuating climatic signal early in the areas history before anthropogenic influence affects the record through trawling.

Predicting 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany: an update based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.