Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Monitoring the vegetation start of season (SOS) across the island of Ireland using the MERIS global vegetation index

The aim of this study was to develop a methodology, based on satellite remote sensing, to estimate the vegetation Start of Season (SOS) across the whole island of Ireland on an annual basis. This growing body of research is known as Land Surface Phenology (LSP) monitoring. The SOS was estimated for each year from a 7-year time series of 10-day composited, 1.2 km reduced resolution MERIS Global Vegetation Index (MGVI) data from 2003 to 2009, using the time series analysis software, TIMESAT. The selection of a 10-day composite period was guided by in-situ observations of leaf unfolding and cloud cover at representative point locations on the island. The MGVI time series was smoothed and the SOS metric extracted at a point corresponding to 20% of the seasonal MGVI amplitude. The SOS metric was extracted on a per pixel basis and gridded for national scale coverage. There were consistent spatial patterns in the SOS grids which were replicated on an annual basis and were qualitatively linked to variation in landcover. Analysis revealed that three statistically separable groups of CORINE Land Cover (CLC) classes could be derived from differences in the SOS, namely agricultural and forest land cover types, peat bogs, and natural and semi-natural vegetation types. These groups demonstrated that managed vegetation, e.g. pastures has a significantly earlier SOS than in unmanaged vegetation e.g. natural grasslands. There was also interannual spatio-temporal variability in the SOS. Such variability was highlighted in a series of anomaly grids showing variation from the 7-year mean SOS. An initial climate analysis indicated that an anomalously cold winter and spring in 2005/2006, linked to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation index value, delayed the 2006 SOS countrywide, while in other years the SOS anomalies showed more complex variation. A correlation study using air temperature as a climate variable revealed the spatial complexity of the air temperature-SOS relationship across the Republic of Ireland as the timing of maximum correlation varied from November to April depending on location. The SOS was found to occur earlier due to warmer winters in the Southeast while it was later with warmer winters in the Northwest. The inverse pattern emerged in the spatial patterns of the spring correlates. This contrasting pattern would appear to be linked to vegetation management as arable cropping is typically practiced in the southeast while there is mixed agriculture and mostly pastures to the west. Therefore, land use as well as air temperature appears to be an important determinant of national scale patterns in the SOS. The TIMESAT tool formed a crucial component of the estimation of SOS across the country in all seven years as it minimised the negative impact of noise and data dropouts in the MGVI time series by applying a smoothing algorithm. The extracted SOS metric was sensitive to temporal and spatial variation in land surface vegetation seasonality while the spatial patterns in the gridded SOS estimates aligned with those in landcover type. The methodology can be extended for a longer time series of FAPAR as MERIS will be replaced by the ESA Sentinel mission in 2013, while the availability of full resolution (300m) MERIS FAPAR and equivalent sensor products holds the possibility of monitoring finer scale seasonality variation. This study has shown the utility of the SOS metric as an indicator of spatiotemporal variability in vegetation phenology, as well as a correlate of other environmental variables such as air temperature. However, the satellite-based method is not seen as a replacement of ground-based observations, but rather as a complementary approach to studying vegetation phenology at the national scale. In future, the method can be extended to extract other metrics of the seasonal cycle in order to gain a more comprehensive view of seasonal vegetation development.

Leaf galls in our native trees and shrubs

Plant galls constitute a branch of study and research which has been to me a subject of much interest for some time. At the start of this work, it was intended to include Plant galls in general, but after some months this was found to be too comprehensive a field and would in fact take a great many years to study fully. Even leaf galls alone, both of herbs and trees provide so large a field of investigation that ultimately I decided to confine my attention to those or our native trees and shrubs. Upon looking up the literature on this subject, it will be found that in nearly all cases, either the gall is described fully and mere mention made or the agent concerned in its production, or vice versa. This state of things is most unsatisfactory, as in studying galls, both the gall-maker and the gall formation must be examined in detail before it is safe to apply nomenclature. This work, therefore, sets out to give accurate and scientific descriptions of both galls and gall-makers. The difficulties encountered are manifold; firstly, our trees are all deciduous, hence, the collecting period is necessarily restricted to that time of the year between the appearance of the buds and the fall of the leaf. Secondly, the rearing of imagines is always difficult, especially in the case or the autumn gall; more will be said on this matter later. Lastly, due to war-time conditions much trouble was experienced in obtaining suitable literature and many invaluable books on this subject were unprocurable. The Plates at the back have all been copied from original material except in the case or the Phytoptid mites which have been sketched with the help of illustrations, the reason for this being the difficulty of making suitable mounts of these minute creatures, Where possible all stages or at least larva and imago have been sketched, together with the host plant and the type of gall-formation produced. Slides have also been made of most larvae and the imagines attached to cards and pinned on to pith or cork in the usual manner.

The ecology of the Irish stoat

The Irish stoat, Mustela erminea hibernica (Thomas and Barrett-Hamilton), has been regarded as an intermediate between the British stoat and the weasel. In this study Irish stoats, mainly from road casualties, were collected and studied. A small number were also live-trapped and radio-tracked. Thus information was gathered on the stoat’s ecology, in particular its form (size and coat colours), reproduction, food habits, parasites, habitat utilisation mortality and predation. The Irish stoats studied were clearly not intermediate in size between British stoats and weasels. They showed considerable size overlap with British stoats, and marked size variation within Ireland. It is argued that size of stoats is determined by food supply early in life. The ventral coat pattern of Irish stoats is apparently unique in the Palaearctic, being similar to that of some stoats found on the west coast of North America. It is argued that this is an example of parallel evolution resulting from adaptation to similar climatic conditions. The stoats were reproductively active in spring and summer. Food consisted mainly of rabbits, but rats, birds, shrews mice and voles were also consumed. Mites were the most numerous ectoparasites, followed by lice, ticks and fleas. Damage by the parasitic nematode Skrjabingylus nasicola was found more frequently in female stoat skulls. Stoats were frequently found in a variety of habitats, both open and wooded. Some of the radio-tracked stoats climbed trees. Dens used were often rat holes. Only one home range, that of a breeding female, was considered to have been accurately measured. It was 22 ha. in size. Mortality is known to have been caused by road accidents and domestic carnivores. It is argued that predation by raptorial birds is important to stoat populations. Results of this study are compared with information available from elsewhere.