Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Vascular calcification and mineral bone disorder in chronic kidney disease

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD), osteoporosis and mild hyponatremia are all prevalent chronic conditions that may coexist and are often under-recognized. Mineral-Bone Disorder begins early in the natural history of CKD and results in complex abnormalities of bone which ultimately confers a well-established increased risk of fragility fractures in End Stage Kidney Disease. Hyponatremia is a novel, usually renal mediated metabolic perturbation, that most commonly occurs independently of the stage of renal dysfunction but which may also predispose to increased fracture risk. The extent -if any- to which either early stages of renal dysfunction or the presence of hyponatremia contribute to fracture occurrence in the general population, independently of osteoporosis, is unclear. Renal transplantation is the treatment of choice for ESKD and although it restores endogenous renal function it typically fails to normalize either the long term cardiovascular or fracture risk. One potential mechanism contributing to these elevated long-term risks and to diminished Health Related Quality of Life is persistent, post-transplant hyperparathyroidism. In this study we retrospectively examine the association of renal function and serum sodium with Bone Mineral Density and fracture occurrence in a retrospective cohort of 1930 female members of the general population who underwent routine DXA scan. We then prospectively recruited a cohort of 90 renal transplant recipients in order to examine the association of post transplant parathyroid hormone (PTH) level with measures of CKD Mineral Bone Disorder, including, DXA Bone Mineral Density, Vascular Calcification (assessed using both abdominal radiography and CT techniques, as well as indirectly by carotid-femoral Pulse Wave Velocity) and Quality of Life (using the Short Form-12 and a PTH specific symptom score). In the retrospective DXA cohort, moderate CKD (eGFR 30-59ml/min/1.73m2) and hyponatremia (<135mmol/L) were associated with fracture occurrence, independently of BMD, with an adjusted Odds Ratio (95% Confidence Interval), of 1.37 (1.0, 1.89) and 2.25 (1.24, 4.09) respectively. In the renal transplant study, PTH was independently associated with the presence of osteoporosis, adjusted Odds Ratio (95% Confidence Interval), 1.15 (per 10ng/ml increment), (1.04, 1.26). The presence of osteoporosis but not PTH was independently associated with measures of vascular calcification, adjusted ß (95% Confidence Interval), 12.45, (1.16, 23.75). Of the eight quality-of-life domains examined, post-transplant PTH (per 10ng/ml increment), was only significantly and independently associated with reduced Physical Functioning, (95% Confidence Interval), 1.12 (1.01, 1.23). CKD and hyponatremia are both common health problems that may contribute to fracture occurrence in the general population, a major on-going public health concern. PTH and decreased Bone Mineral Density may signal sub-optimal long-term outcomes post renal transplantation, influencing bone and vascular health and to a limited extent long term Health Related Quality of Life

The analysis of Bcr-Abl—Nox signalling in chronic myeloid leukaemia

Chronic Myeloid Leukaemia (CML) is a myeloproliferative disorder characterised by increased proliferation of haematopoietic stem cells. CML results following generation of the chimeric protein Bcr-Abl, a constitutively active tyrosine kinase which induces oncogenesis in part by promoting increased cell survival and proliferation. Since the development of Bcr-Abl-specific tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) there has been a substantial improvement in the clinical treatment of CML. Unfortunately, residual disease and the development of TKI resistance has become an ever growing concern, resulting in the need for a greater understanding of the disease in order to develop new treatment strategies. Interestingly, constitutive expression of the Bcr-Abl in CML is known to produce elevated levels of Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) which are known to influence a variety of cellular processes. Previous studies have demonstrated that NADPH oxidase (Nox) activity contributes to intracellular-ROS levels in Bcr-Abl-positive cells, enhancing survival signalling. The objective of this study was to elucidate how Nox protein activity was influenced downstream of Bcr-Abl while examining how Nox-derived ROS influenced CML disease phenotype to identify the potential in targeting these proteins to improve CML treatment. These studies demonstrated that inhibition of Bcr-Abl signalling, led to a significant reduction in ROS levels which was concurrent with the GSK-3dependent, post-translational down-regulation of the small membrane-bound protein p22phox, an essential component of the Nox complex. siRNA knockdown of p22phox identified it to have a significant role in cellular proliferation and cell viability, demonstrating the importance of Nox protein activity in CML disease phenotype. Furthermore, removal of p22phox was demonstrated to make cells significantly more susceptible to Bcr-Abl-specific TKI treatment, while pharmacological silencing of Nox activity in combination with TKIs was demonstrated to produce substantial, synergistic increases in cell death through augmentation of apoptosis, demonstrating the therapeutic potential of targeting Nox proteins in combination with Bcr-Abl inhibition.

Characterising novel anti-biofilm targets for the treatment of chronic Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection in the cystic fibrosis lung

The global rise in antibiotic resistance is a significant problem facing healthcare professionals. In particular within the cystic fibrosis (CF) lung, bacteria can establish chronic infection and resistance to a wide array of antibiotic therapies. One of the principle pathogens associated with chronic infection in the CF lung is Pseudomonas aeruginosa. P. aeruginosa can establish chronic infection in the CF lung partly through the use of the biofilm mode of growth. This biofilm mode of growth offers a considerable degree of protection from a wide variety of challenges such as the host immune system or antibiotic therapy. The threat posed by the emergence of chronic pathogens is prompting the development of next generation antimicrobials. The biofilm mode of growth is often central to the establishment of chronic infection and the development of antibiotic resistance. Thus, targeting biofilm formation has emerged as one of the principle strategies for the development of next generation antimicrobials. In this thesis two separate approaches were used to identify potential anti - biofilm targets. The first strategy focused on the identification of novel genes with a role in a biofilm formation. High throughput screening identified almost 300 genes which had a role in biofilm formation. A number of these genes were characterised at a phenotypic and a molecular level. The second strategy focused on the identification of compounds capable of inhibiting biofilm formation. A collection of marine sponge isolated bacteria were screened for the ability to inhibit the central pathway regulating biofilm formation, quorum sensing. A number of distinct isolates were identified that had quorum sensing inhibition activity from which, a Pseudomonas isolate was selected for further characterisation. A specific compound capable of inhibiting quorum sensing was identified using chemical analytical technologies in the supernatant of this marine isolate.

Development and psychometric evaluation of the spirituality instrument (SpI-27) in a sample of people with chronic illness

Background: Spirituality is fundamental to all human beings, existing within a person, and developing until death. This research sought to operationalise spirituality in a sample of individuals with chronic illness. A review of the conceptual literature identified three dimensions of spirituality: connectedness, transcendence, and meaning in life. A review of the empirical literature identified one instrument that measures the three dimensions together. Yet, recent appraisals of this instrument highlighted issues with item formulation and limited evidence of reliability and validity. Aim: The aim of this research was to develop a theoretically-grounded instrument to measure spirituality – the Spirituality Instrument-27 (SpI-27). A secondary aim was to psychometrically evaluate this instrument in a sample of individuals with chronic illness (n=249). Methods: A two-phase design was adopted. Phase one consisted of the development of the SpI-27 based on item generation from a concept analysis, a literature review, and an instrument appraisal. The second phase established the psychometric properties of the instrument and included: a qualitative descriptive design to establish content validity; a pilot study to evaluate the mode of administration; and a descriptive correlational design to assess the instrument’s reliability and validity. Data were analysed using SPSS (Version 18). Results: Results of exploratory factor analysis concluded a final five-factor solution with 27 items. These five factors were labelled: Connectedness with Others, Self-Transcendence, Self-Cognisance, Conservationism, and Connectedness with a Higher Power. Cronbach’s alpha coefficients ranged from 0.823 to 0.911 for the five factors, and 0.904 for the overall scale, indicating high internal consistency. Paired-sample t-tests, intra-class correlations, and weighted kappa values supported the temporal stability of the instrument over 2 weeks. A significant positive correlation was found between the SpI-27 and the Spirituality Index of Well-Being, providing evidence for convergent validity. Conclusion: This research addresses a call for a theoretically-grounded instrument to measure spirituality.

Redox remodelling in diaphragm muscle adaptation to chronic sustained hypoxia

Chronic sustained hypoxia (CH) induces functional weakness, atrophy, and mitochondrial remodelling in the diaphragm muscle. Animal models of CH present with changes similar to patients with respiratory-related disease, thus, elucidating the molecular mechanisms driving these adaptations is clinically important. We hypothesize that ROS are pivotal in diaphragm muscle adaptation to CH. C57BL6/J mice were exposed to CH (FiO2=0.1) for one, three, and six weeks. Sternohyoid (upper airway dilator), extensor digitorum longus (EDL), and soleus were studied as reference muscles as well as the diaphragm. The diaphragm was profiled using a redox proteomics approach followed by mass spectrometry. Following this, redox-modified metabolic enzyme activities and atrophy signalling were assessed using spectrophotometric assays and ELISA. Diaphragm isotonic performance was assessed after six weeks of CH ± chronic antioxidant supplementation. Protein carbonyl and free thiol content in the diaphragm were increased and decreased respectively after six weeks of CH – indicative of protein oxidation. These changes were temporally modulated and muscle specific. Extensive remodelling of metabolic proteins occurred and the stress reached the cross-bridge. Metabolic enzyme activities in the diaphragm were, for the most part, decreased by CH and differential muscle responses were observed. Redox sensitive chymotrypsin-like proteasome activity of the diaphragm was increased and atrophy signalling was observed through decreased phospho-FOXO3a and phospho-mTOR. Phospho-p38 MAPK content was increased and this was attenuated by antioxidant treatment. Hypoxia decreased power generating capacity of the diaphragm and this was restored by N-acetyl-cysteine (NAC) but not by tempol. Redox remodelling is pivotal for diaphragm adaptation to chronic sustained hypoxia. Muscle changes are dependent on duration of the hypoxia stimulus, activity profile of the muscle, and molecular composition of the muscle. The working respiratory muscles and slow oxidative fibres are particularly susceptible. NAC (antioxidant) may be useful as an adjunct therapy in respiratory-related diseases characterised by hypoxic stress.

Response to the review of the white paper on Irish aid. The urbanisation of poverty: drawing on the skills and techniques of spatial planning to support the aid programme

Submission on behalf of UCC to the Government Consultation on the White paper on Irish Aid