Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland

Countries across the world are being challenged to decarbonise their energy systems in response to diminishing fossil fuel reserves, rising GHG emissions and the dangerous threat of climate change. There has been a renewed interest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon energy as policy‐makers seek to identify and put in place the most robust sustainable energy system that can address this challenge. This thesis seeks to improve the evidence base underpinning energy policy decisions in Ireland with a particular focus on natural gas, which in 2011 grew to have a 30% share of Ireland’s TPER. Natural gas is used in all sectors of the Irish economy and is seen by many as a transition fuel to a low-carbon energy system; it is also a uniquely excellent source of data for many aspects of energy consumption. A detailed decomposition analysis of natural gas consumption in the residential sector quantifies many of the structural drives of change, with activity (R2 = 0.97) and intensity (R2 = 0.69) being the best explainers of changing gas demand. The 2002 residential building regulations are subject to an ex-post evaluation, which using empirical data finds a 44 ±9.5% shortfall in expected energy savings as well as a 13±1.6% level of non-compliance. A detailed energy demand model of the entire Irish energy system is presented together with scenario analysis of a large number of energy efficiency policies, which show an aggregate reduction in TFC of 8.9% compared to a reference scenario. The role for natural gas as a transition fuel over a long time horizon (2005-2050) is analysed using an energy systems model and a decomposition analysis, which shows the contribution of fuel switching to natural gas to be worth 12 percentage points of an overall 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Finally, an analysis of the potential for CCS in Ireland finds gas CCS to be more robust than coal CCS for changes in fuel prices, capital costs and emissions reduction and the cost optimal location for a gas CCS plant in Ireland is found to be in Cork with sequestration in the depleted gas field of Kinsale.

Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

An energy efficient power controller switching methodology for an ambient healthcare network

A methodology for improved power controller switching in mobile Body Area Networks operating within the ambient healthcare environment is proposed. The work extends Anti-windup and Bumpless transfer results to provide a solution to the ambulatory networking problem that ensures sufficient biometric data can always be regenerated at the base station. The solution thereby guarantees satisfactory quality of service for healthcare providers. Compensation is provided for the nonlinear hardware constraints that are a typical feature of the type of network under consideration and graceful performance degradation in the face of hardware output power saturation is demonstrated, thus conserving network energy in an optimal fashion.

Magnetic materials and soft-switched topologies for high-current DC-DC converters

The thesis is focused on the magnetic materials comparison and selection for high-power non-isolated dc-dc converters for industrial applications or electric, hybrid and fuel cell vehicles. The application of high-frequency bi-directional soft-switched dc-dc converters is also investigated. The thesis initially outlines the motivation for an energy-efficient transportation system with minimum environmental impact and reduced dependence on exhaustible resources. This is followed by a general overview of the power system architectures for electric, hybrid and fuel cell vehicles. The vehicle power sources and general dc-dc converter topologies are discussed. The dc-dc converter components are discussed with emphasis on recent semiconductor advances. A novel bi-directional soft-switched dc-dc converter with an auxiliary cell is introduced in this thesis. The soft-switching cell allows for the MOSFET's intrinsic body diode to operate in a half-bridge without reduced efficiency. The converter's mode-by-mode operation is analysed and closed-form expressions are presented for the average current gain of the converter. The design issues are presented and circuit limitations are discussed. Magnetic materials for the main dc-dc converter inductor are compared and contrasted. Novel magnetic material comparisons are introduced, which include the material dc bias capability and thermal conductivity. An inductor design algorithm is developed and used to compare the various magnetic materials for the application. The area-product analysis is presented for the minimum inductor size and highlights the optimum magnetic materials. Finally, the high-flux magnetic materials are experimentally compared. The practical effects of frequency, dc-bias, and converters duty-cycle effect for arbitrary shapes of flux density, air gap effects on core and winding, the winding shielding effect, and thermal configuration are investigated. The thesis results have been documented at IEEE EPE conference in 2007 and 2008, IEEE APEC in 2009 and 2010, and IEEE VPPC in 2010. A 2011 journal has been approved by IEEE Transactions on Power Electronics.