Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

The impact of conifer plantation forestry on the ecology of peatland lakes

Blanket bog lakes are a characteristic feature of blanket bog habitats and harbour many rare and threatened invertebrate species. Despite their potential conservation value, however, very little is known about their physico-chemical or biological characteristics in western Europe, and their reference conditions are still unknown in Ireland. Furthermore, they are under considerable threat in Ireland from a number of sources, particularly afforestation of their catchments by exotic conifers. Plantation forestry can potentially lead to the increased input of substances including hydrogen ions (H+), plants nutrients, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), heavy metals and sediment. The aims of this study were to investigate the effect of conifer plantation forestry on the hydrochemistry and ecology of blanket bog lakes in western Ireland. Lake hydrochemistry, littoral Chydoridae (Cladocera) and littoral macroinvertebrate communities were compared among replicate lakes selected from three distinct catchment land use categories: i) unplanted blanket bog only present in the catchment, ii) mature (closed-canopy) conifer plantation forests only present in the catchment and iii) catchments containing mature conifer plantation forests with recently clearfelled areas. All three catchment land uses were replicated across two geologies: sandstone and granite. Lakes with afforested catchments across both geologies had elevated concentrations of phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N), total dissolved organic carbon (TDOC), aluminium (Al) and iron (Fe), with the highest concentrations of each parameter recorded from lakes with catchment clearfelling. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were also significantly reduced in the afforested lakes, particularly the clearfell lakes. This change in lake hydrochemistry was associated with profound changes in lake invertebrate communities. Within the chydorid communities, the dominance of Alonopsis elongata in the unplanted blanket bog lakes shifted to dominance by the smaller bodied Chydorus sphaericus, along with Alonella nana, Alonella excisa and Alonella exigua, in the plantation forestry-affected lakes, consistent with a shift in lake trophy. Similarly, there was marked changes in the macroinvertebrate communities, especially for the Coleoptera and Heteroptera assemblages which revealed increased taxon richness and abundance in the nutrient-enriched lakes. In terms of conservation status, despite having the greatest species-quality scores (SQS) and species richness, three of the four International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) red-listed species of Coleoptera and Odonata recorded during the study were absent from lakes subject to catchment clearfelling. The relative strengths of bottom-up (forestry-mediated nutrient enrichment) and top-down (fish) forces in structuring littoral macroinvertebrate communities was investigated in a separate study. Nutrient enrichment was shown to be the dominant force acting on communities, with fish having a lesser influence. These results confirmed that plantation forestry poses the single greatest threat to the conservation status of blanket bog lakes in western Ireland. The findings of this study have major implications for the management of afforested peatlands. Further research is required on blanket bog lakes to prevent any further plantation forestry-mediated habitat deterioration of this rare and protected habitat.

序破急 Jo-Ha-Kyu: enticement - crux - consolidation. From study to learning: Process drama projects in the Japanese English language university classroom

This dissertation investigates how social issues can be explored through process drama projects in the Japanese university English as a Foreign Language classroom context. The trajectory of this dissertation moves along a traditional Noh three part macro-continuum, called Jo-Ha-Kyu, interpreted as enticement, crux and consolidation. Within these three parts, there are six further divisions. Part I consists of three sections: Section I, the introduction, sets the backdrop for the entire dissertation, that of Japan, and aims to draw the reader into its culturally unique and specific world. This section outlines the rationale for placing the ethnographer at the centre of the research, and presents Japan through the eyes of the writer. Section II outlines relevant Japanese cultural norms, mores and values, the English educational landscape of Japan and an overview of theatre in Japan and its possible influences on the Japanese university student today. Section III provides three literature reviews: second language acquisition, drama in education to process drama, and Content Language Integrated Learning. In Part 2, Sections IV and V respectively consist of the research methodology and the action research at the core of this dissertation. Section IV describes the case of Kwansei Gakuin University, then explains the design of the process drama curricula. Section V details the three-process drama projects based around the three social issues at the centre of this dissertation. There is also a description of an extra project that of the guest lecturer project. The ultimate goals of all four projects were to change motivation through English in a CLIL context, to develop linguistic spontaneity and to deepen emotional engagement with the themes. Part 3 serves to reflect upon the viability of using process drama in the Japanese university curriculum, and to critically self-reflect on the project as a whole.

A post-structuralist analysis of Irish youth crime prevention policy with specific emphasis on the Garda youth diversion projects

Garda Youth Diversion Projects (GYDPs) have since their beginnings in the early 1990s gained an increasingly important role and now constitute a central feature of Irish youth justice provision. Managed by the Irish Youth Justice Service and implemented by the Gardai and a variety of youth work organisations as well as independent community organisations, GYDPs are located at the crossroads of welfarist and corporatist approaches to youth justice, combining diversionary and preventative aspects in their work. To date, these projects have been subjected to very little systematic analysis and they have thus largely escaped critical scrutiny. To address this gap, this thesis locates the analysis of GYDP policy and practice within a post-structuralist theoretical framework and deploys discourse analysis primarily based on the work of Michel Foucault. It makes visible the official youth crime prevention and GYDP policy discourses and identifies how official discourses relating to youth crime prevention, young people and their offending behaviour, are drawn upon, negotiated, rejected or re-contextualised by project workers and JLOs. It also lays bare how project workers and JLOs draw upon a variety of other discourses, resulting in multi-layered, complex and sometimes contradictory constructions of young people, their offending behaviour and corresponding interventions. At a time when the projects are undergoing significant changes in terms of their repositioning to operate as the support infrastructure underpinning the statutory Garda Youth Diversion Programme, the thesis traces the discursive shifts and the implications for practice that are occurring as the projects move away from a youth work orientation towards a youth justice orientation. A key contribution of this thesis is the insight it provides into how young people and their families are being constituted in individualising and sometimes pathologising ways in GYDP discourses and practices. It reveals the part played by the GYDP intervention in favouring individual and narrow familial causes of offending behaviour while broader societal contexts are sidelined. By explicating the very assumptions upon which contemporary youth crime prevention policy, as well as GYDP policy and practice are based, this thesis offers a counterpoint to the prevailing evidence-based agenda of much research in the field of Irish youth justice theory and youth studies more generally. Rather, it encourages the reader to take a step back and examine some of the most fundamental and unquestioned assumptions about the construction of young people, their offending behaviour and ways of addressing this, in contemporary Irish youth crime prevention policy and practice.

Dealing with emergent design science research projects in IS

Multiple models, methods and frameworks have been proposed to guide Design Science Research (DSR) application to address relevant classes of problems in Information Systems (IS) discipline. While much of the ambiguity around the research paradigm has been removed, only the surface has been scratched on DSR efforts where researcher takes an active role in organizational and industrial engagement to solve a specific problem and generalize the solution to a class of problems. Such DSR projects can have a significant impact on practice, link theories to real contexts and extend the scope of DSR. Considering these multiform settings, the implications to theorizing nor the crucial role of researcher in the interplay of DSR and IS projects have not been properly addressed. The emergent nature of such projects needs to be further investigated to reach such contributions for both theory and practice. This paper raises multiple theoretical, organizational and managerial considerations for a meta-level monitoring model for emergent DSR projects.