Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Modular average case analysis: Language implementation and extension

Motivated by accurate average-case analysis, MOdular Quantitative Analysis (MOQA) is developed at the Centre for Efficiency Oriented Languages (CEOL). In essence, MOQA allows the programmer to determine the average running time of a broad class of programmes directly from the code in a (semi-)automated way. The MOQA approach has the property of randomness preservation which means that applying any operation to a random structure, results in an output isomorphic to one or more random structures, which is key to systematic timing. Based on original MOQA research, we discuss the design and implementation of a new domain specific scripting language based on randomness preserving operations and random structures. It is designed to facilitate compositional timing by systematically tracking the distributions of inputs and outputs. The notion of a labelled partial order (LPO) is the basic data type in the language. The programmer uses built-in MOQA operations together with restricted control flow statements to design MOQA programs. This MOQA language is formally specified both syntactically and semantically in this thesis. A practical language interpreter implementation is provided and discussed. By analysing new algorithms and data restructuring operations, we demonstrate the wide applicability of the MOQA approach. Also we extend MOQA theory to a number of other domains besides average-case analysis. We show the strong connection between MOQA and parallel computing, reversible computing and data entropy analysis.

Reversal of impairment losses, firm performance and reporting incentives: Evidence from Malaysia

Malaysian Financial Reporting Standard (FRS) No. 136, Impairment of Assets, was issued in 2005. The standard requires public listed companies to report their non-current assets at no more than their recoverable amount. When the value of impaired assets is recovered, or partly recovered, FRS 136 requires the impairment charges to be reversed to its new recoverable amount. This study tests whether the reversal of impairment losses by Malaysian firms is more closely associated with economic reasons or reporting incentives. The sample of this study consists of 182 public companies listed on Bursa Malaysia (formerly known as the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange) that reported reversals of their impairment charges during the period 2006-2009. These firms are matched with firms which do not reverse impairment on the basis of industrial classification and size. In the year of reversal, this study finds that the reversal firms are more profitable (before reversals) than their matched firms. On average, the Malaysian stock market values the reversals of impairment losses positively. These results suggest that the reversals generally reflect increases in the value of the previously impaired assets. After partitioning firms that are likely to manage earnings and those that are not, this study finds that there are some Malaysian firms which reverse the impairment charges to manage earnings. Their reversals are not value-relevant, and are negatively associated with future firm performance. On the other hand, the reversals of firms which are deemed not to be earnings managers are positively associated with both future firm performance and current stock price performance, and this is the dominant motivation for the reversal of impairment charges in Malaysia. In further analysis, this study provides evidence that the opportunistic reversals are also associated with other earnings management manifestations, namely abnormal working capital accruals and the motivation to avoid earnings declines. In general, the findings suggest that the fair value measurement in impairment standard provides useful information to the users of financial statements.

Reflections on the transformation of my meaning making to support the organic growth of a firm

The objective of my Portfolio is to explore the working hypothesis that the organic growth of a firm is governed by the perspectives of individuals and such perspectives are governed by their meaning-making. The Portfolio presents explorations of the transformation of my meaning making and in adopting new practices to support the organic growth of a firm. I use the work of other theorists to transition my understanding of how the world works. This transition process is an essential tool to engage with and understand the perspectives of others and develop a mental capacity to “train one’s imagination to go visiting” (Arendt, 1982; p.43). The Portfolio, therefore, is primarily located in reflective research. Using Kegan’s (1994) approach to Adult Mental Development, and Sowell’s (2007) understanding of the visions which silently shape our thoughts I organise the developments of my meaning making around three transformation pillars of change. In pillar one I seek to transform an unthinking respect for authority and break down a blind pervasiveness of thought within my reasoning process arising from an instinct for attachment and support from others whom I trust. In pillar two I seek to discontinue using autocratic leadership and learn to use the thoughts and contributions of a wider team to make improved choices about uncertain future events. In pillar three I explore the use of a more reflective thinking framework to test the accuracy of my perceptions and apply a high level of integrity in my reasoning process. The transformation of my meaning making has changed my perspectives and in turn my preferred practices to support the organic growth of a firm. I identify from practice that a transformative form of leadership is far more effective that a transactional form of leadership to stimulate the trust and teamwork required to sustain the growth a firm. Creating an environment where one feels free to share thoughts and feelings with others is an essential tool to build a team to critique the thoughts of one other. Furthermore, the entrepreneurial wisdom to grow a firm must come from a wider team, located both inside and outside the boundaries of a firm. No individual or small team has the mental capacity to provide the entrepreneurship required to drive the organic growth of a firm. I address my Portfolio to leaders in organisations who have no considered framework on the best practices required to lead a social organisation. These individuals may have no sense of what they implicitly believe drives social causation and they may have no understanding if their meaning making supports or curtails the practices required to grow a firm. They may have a very limited capacity to think in a logical manner, with the result they are using guesses from their ‘gut’ to make poor judgements in the management of a firm.