Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.

Investigation of stress and burnout in Irish second-level teachers: A mixed-methods approach.

This study explores the experiences of stress and burnout in Irish second level teachers and examines the contribution of a number of individual, environmental and health factors in burnout development. As no such study has previously been carried out with this sample, a mixed-methods approach was adopted in order to comprehensively investigate the subject matter. Teaching has consistently been identified as a particularly stressful occupation and research investigating its development is of great importance in developing measures to address the problem. The first phase of study involved the use of focus groups conducted with a total of 20 second-level teachers from 11 different schools in the greater Cork city area. Findings suggest that teachers experience a variety of stressors – in class, in the staff room and outside of school. The second phase of study employed a survey to examine the factors associated with burnout. Analysis of 192 responses suggested that burnout results from a combination of demographic, personality, environmental and coping factors. Burnout was also found to be associated with a number of physical symptoms, particularly trouble sleeping and fatigue. Findings suggest that interventions designed to reduce burnout must reflect the complexity of the problem and its development. Based on the research findings, interventions that combine individual and organisational approaches should provide the optimal chance of effectively tackling burnout.

Work experience in transition year: a mixed methods study of subject and career choices

Transition Year (TY) has been a feature of the Irish Education landscape for 39 years. Work experience (WE) has become a key component of TY. WE is defined as a module of between five and fifteen days duration where students engage in a work placement in the broader community. It places a major emphasis on building relationships between schools and their external communities and concomitantly between students and their potential future employers. Yet, the idea that participation in a TY work experience programme could facilitate an increased awareness of potential careers has drawn little attention from the research community. This research examines the influence WE has on the subsequent subjects choices made by students along with the effects of that experience on the students’ identities and emerging vocational identities. Socio-cultural Learning Theory and Occupational Choice Theory frame the overall study. A mixed methods approach to data collection was adopted through the administration of 323 quantitative questionnaires and 32 individual semi-structured interviews in three secondary schools. The analysis of the data was conducted using a grounded theory approach. The findings from the research show that WE makes a significant contribution to the students’ sense of agency in their own lives. It facilitates the otherwise complex process of subject choice, motivates students to work harder in their senior cycle, introduces them to the concepts of active, experience-based and self-directed learning, while boosting their self-confidence and nurturing the emergence of their personal and vocational identities. This research is a gateway to further study in this field. It also has wide reaching implications for students, teachers, school authorities, parents and policy makers regarding teaching and learning in our schools and the value of learning beyond the walls of the classroom.

Application of signal detection methods to fisheries management

The abundance of many commercially important fish stocks are declining and this has led to widespread concern on the performance of traditional approach in fisheries management. Quantitative models are used for obtaining estimates of population abundance and the management advice is based on annual harvest levels (TAC), where only a certain amount of catch is allowed from specific fish stocks. However, these models are data intensive and less useful when stocks have limited historical information. This study examined whether empirical stock indicators can be used to manage fisheries. The relationship between indicators and the underlying stock abundance is not direct and hence can be affected by disturbances that may account for both transient and persistent effects. Methods from Statistical Process Control (SPC) theory such as the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) control charts are useful in classifying these effects and hence they can be used to trigger management response only when a significant impact occurs to the stock biomass. This thesis explores how empirical indicators along with CUSUM can be used for monitoring, assessment and management of fish stocks. I begin my thesis by exploring various age based catch indicators, to identify those which are potentially useful in tracking the state of fish stocks. The sensitivity and response of these indicators towards changes in Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) showed that indicators based on age groups that are fully selected to the fishing gear or Large Fish Indicators (LFIs) are most useful and robust across the range of scenarios considered. The Decision-Interval (DI-CUSUM) and Self-Starting (SS-CUSUM) forms are the two types of control charts used in this study. In contrast to the DI-CUSUM, the SS-CUSUM can be initiated without specifying a target reference point (‘control mean’) to detect out-of-control (significant impact) situations. The sensitivity and specificity of SS-CUSUM showed that the performances are robust when LFIs are used. Once an out-of-control situation is detected, the next step is to determine how much shift has occurred in the underlying stock biomass. If an estimate of this shift is available, they can be used to update TAC by incorporation into Harvest Control Rules (HCRs). Various methods from Engineering Process Control (EPC) theory were tested to determine which method can measure the shift size in stock biomass with the highest accuracy. Results showed that methods based on Grubb’s harmonic rule gave reliable shift size estimates. The accuracy of these estimates can be improved by monitoring a combined indicator metric of stock-recruitment and LFI because this may account for impacts independent of fishing. The procedure of integrating both SPC and EPC is known as Statistical Process Adjustment (SPA). A HCR based on SPA was designed for DI-CUSUM and the scheme was successful in bringing out-of-control fish stocks back to its in-control state. The HCR was also tested using SS-CUSUM in the context of data poor fish stocks. Results showed that the scheme will be useful for sustaining the initial in-control state of the fish stock until more observations become available for quantitative assessments.

Development of large-scale colloidal crystallisation methods for the production of photonic crystals

Colloidal photonic crystals have potential light manipulation applications including; fabrication of efficient lasers and LEDs, improved optical sensors and interconnects, and improving photovoltaic efficiencies. One road-block of colloidal selfassembly is their inherent defects; however, they can be manufactured cost effectively into large area films compared to micro-fabrication methods. This thesis investigates production of ‘large-area’ colloidal photonic crystals by sonication, under oil co-crystallization and controlled evaporation, with a view to reducing cracking and other defects. A simple monotonic Stöber particle synthesis method was developed producing silica particles in the range of 80 to 600nm in a single step. An analytical method assesses the quality of surface particle ordering in a semiquantitative manner was developed. Using fast Fourier transform (FFT) spot intensities, a grey scale symmetry area method, has been used to quantify the FFT profiles. Adding ultrasonic vibrations during film formation demonstrated large areas could be assembled rapidly, however film ordering suffered as a result. Under oil cocrystallisation results in the particles being bound together during film formation. While having potential to form large areas, it requires further refinement to be established as a production technique. Achieving high quality photonic crystals bonded with low concentrations (<5%) of polymeric adhesives while maintaining refractive index contrast, proved difficult and degraded the film’s uniformity. A controlled evaporation method, using a mixed solvent suspension, represents the most promising method to produce high quality films over large areas, 75mm x 25mm. During this mixed solvent approach, the film is kept in the wet state longer, thus reducing cracks developing during the drying stage. These films are crack-free up to a critical thickness, and show very large domains, which are visible in low magnification SEM images as Moiré fringe patterns. Higher magnification reveals separation between alternate fringe patterns are domain boundaries between individual crystalline growth fronts.

Silica bonded stationary phases: Innovative functionalization methods and novel chromatographic separations based on molecular recognition

The research work included in this thesis examines the synthesis, characterization and chromatographic evaluation of novel bonded silica stationary phases. Innovative methods of preparation of silica hydride intermediates and octadecylsilica using a “green chemistry” approach eliminate the use of toxic organic solvents and exploit the solvating power and enhanced diffusivity of supercritical carbon dioxide to produce phases with a surface coverage of bonded ligands which is comparable to, or exceeds, that achieved using traditional organic solvent-based methods. A new stationary phase is also discussed which displays chromatographic selectivity based on molecular recognition. Chapter 1 introduces the chemistry of silica stationary phases, the retention mechanisms and theories on which reversed-phase liquid chromatography and hydrophilic interaction chromatograpy are based, the art and science of achieving a well packed liquid chromatography column, the properties of supercritical carbon dioxide and molecular recognition chemistry. Chapter 2 compares the properties of silica hydride materials prepared using supercritical carbon dioxide as the reaction medium with those synthesized in an organic solvent. A higher coverage of hydride groups on the silica surface is seen when a monofunctional silane is reacted in supercritical carbon dioxide while trifunctional silanes result in a phase which exhibits different properties depending on the reaction medium used. The differing chromatographic behaviour of these silica hydride materials prepared using supercritical carbon dioxide and using organic solvent are explored in chapter 3. Chapter 4 focusses on the preparation of octadecylsilica using mono-, di- and trifunctional alkoxysilanes in supercritical carbon dioxide and in anhydrous toluene. The surface coverage of octadecyl groups, as calculated using thermogravimetric analysis and elemental analysis, is highest when a trifunctional alkoxysilane is reacted with silica in supercritical carbon dioxide. A novel silica stationary phase is discussed in chapter 5 which displays selectivity for analytes based on their hydrogen bonding capabilities. The phase is also highly selective for barbituric acid and may have a future application in the solid phase extraction of barbiturates from biological samples.

State building as strategy: An interrogation of NATO's comprehensive approach in Afghanistan between 2006 and 2011

The core of this thesis is the study of NATO’s Comprehensive Approach strategy to state building in Afghanistan between 2006 and 2011. It argues that this strategy sustained operational and tactical practices which were ineffective in responding to the evolved nature of the security problem. The thesis interrogates the Comprehensive Approach along ontological, empirical and epistemological lines and concludes that the failure of the Comprehensive Approach in the specific Afghan case is, in fact, indicative of underlying theoretical and pragmatic flaws which, therefore, generalize the dilemma. The research is pragmatic in nature, employing mixed methods (quantitative and qualitative) concurrently. Qualitative methods include research into primary and secondary literature sources supplemented with the author’s personal experiences in Afghanistan in 2008 and various NATO HQ and Canadian settings. Quantitative research includes an empirical case study focussing on NATO’s Afghan experience and its attempt at state building between 2006 and 2011. This study incorporates a historical review of NATO’s evolutionary involvement in Afghanistan incorporating the subject timeframe; offers an analysis of human development and governance related data mapped to expected outcomes of the Afghan National Development Strategy and NATO’s comprehensive campaign design; and interrogates the Comprehensive Approach strategy by means of an analysis of conceptual, institutional and capability gaps in the context of an integrated investigational framework. The results of the case study leads to an investigation of a series of research questions related to the potential impact of the failure of the Comprehensive Approach for NATO in Afghanistan and the limits of state building as a means of attaining security for the Alliance.

Surveillance during pregnancy: methods and response rates from a hospital based pilot study of the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System in Ireland

Background: Many European countries including Ireland lack high quality, on-going, population based estimates of maternal behaviours and experiences during pregnancy. PRAMS is a CDC surveillance program which was established in the United States in 1987 to generate high quality, population based data to reduce infant mortality rates and improve maternal and infant health. PRAMS is the only on-going population based surveillance system of maternal behaviours and experiences that occur before, during and after pregnancy worldwide.Methods: The objective of this study was to adapt, test and evaluate a modified CDC PRAMS methodology in Ireland. The birth certificate file which is the standard approach to sampling for PRAMS in the United States was not available for the PRAMS Ireland study. Consequently, delivery record books for the period between 3 and 5 months before the study start date at a large urban obstetric hospital [8,900 births per year] were used to randomly sample 124 women. Name, address, maternal age, infant sex, gestational age at delivery, delivery method, APGAR score and birth weight were manually extracted from records. Stillbirths and early neonatal deaths were excluded using APGAR scores and hospital records. Women were sent a letter of invitation to participate including option to opt out, followed by a modified PRAMS survey, a reminder letter and a final survey.Results: The response rate for the pilot was 67%. Two per cent of women refused the survey, 7% opted out of the study and 24% did not respond. Survey items were at least 88% complete for all 82 respondents. Prevalence estimates of socially undesirable behaviours such as alcohol consumption during pregnancy were high [>50%] and comparable with international estimates.Conclusion: PRAMS is a feasible and valid method of collecting information on maternal experiences and behaviours during pregnancy in Ireland. PRAMS may offer a potential solution to data deficits in maternal health behaviour indicators in Ireland with further work. This study is important to researchers in Europe and elsewhere who may be interested in new ways of tailoring an established CDC methodology to their unique settings to resolve data deficits in maternal health.