Power system parameters forecasting using Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. A part from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The second section presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learningbased algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting.

A post-structuralist analysis of Irish youth crime prevention policy with specific emphasis on the Garda youth diversion projects

Garda Youth Diversion Projects (GYDPs) have since their beginnings in the early 1990s gained an increasingly important role and now constitute a central feature of Irish youth justice provision. Managed by the Irish Youth Justice Service and implemented by the Gardai and a variety of youth work organisations as well as independent community organisations, GYDPs are located at the crossroads of welfarist and corporatist approaches to youth justice, combining diversionary and preventative aspects in their work. To date, these projects have been subjected to very little systematic analysis and they have thus largely escaped critical scrutiny. To address this gap, this thesis locates the analysis of GYDP policy and practice within a post-structuralist theoretical framework and deploys discourse analysis primarily based on the work of Michel Foucault. It makes visible the official youth crime prevention and GYDP policy discourses and identifies how official discourses relating to youth crime prevention, young people and their offending behaviour, are drawn upon, negotiated, rejected or re-contextualised by project workers and JLOs. It also lays bare how project workers and JLOs draw upon a variety of other discourses, resulting in multi-layered, complex and sometimes contradictory constructions of young people, their offending behaviour and corresponding interventions. At a time when the projects are undergoing significant changes in terms of their repositioning to operate as the support infrastructure underpinning the statutory Garda Youth Diversion Programme, the thesis traces the discursive shifts and the implications for practice that are occurring as the projects move away from a youth work orientation towards a youth justice orientation. A key contribution of this thesis is the insight it provides into how young people and their families are being constituted in individualising and sometimes pathologising ways in GYDP discourses and practices. It reveals the part played by the GYDP intervention in favouring individual and narrow familial causes of offending behaviour while broader societal contexts are sidelined. By explicating the very assumptions upon which contemporary youth crime prevention policy, as well as GYDP policy and practice are based, this thesis offers a counterpoint to the prevailing evidence-based agenda of much research in the field of Irish youth justice theory and youth studies more generally. Rather, it encourages the reader to take a step back and examine some of the most fundamental and unquestioned assumptions about the construction of young people, their offending behaviour and ways of addressing this, in contemporary Irish youth crime prevention policy and practice.

Leader's reflections on knowledge, knowing and not knowing: an analysis of change over time

One commonality across the leadership and knowledge related literature is the apparent neglect of the leaders own knowledge. This thesis sought to address this issue through conducting exploratory research into the content of leader’s personal knowledge and the process of knowing it. The empirical inquiry adopted a longitudinal approach, with interviews conducted at two separate time periods with an extended time-interval between each. The findings from this research contrast with images of leadership which suggest leaders are in control of what they know, that they own their own knowledge. The picture that emerges is one of individuals struggling to keep abreast of the knowledge required to deal with the dynamics and uncertainties of organisational life. Much knowledge is tacit, provisional and perishable and the related process of knowing more organic, evolutionary and informal than any structured or orchestrated approach. The collective nature of knowing is a central feature, with these leaders embedded in networks of uncontrollable relationships. In view of the indeterminate nature of knowing, the boundary between what is known and what one needs to know is both amorphous and ephemeral, and the likelihood of knowledge-absences is escalated. A significant finding in this regard is the identification of two critical points where not-knowing is most likely (entry and exit from role) and the differing implications of each. Overtime the knowledge that is legitimised or prioritised is significantly altered as these leaders replace the dogmas that were previously held in high esteem with the lessons from their own experience. This experience brings increased self-knowledge and a deeper appreciation of the values and morals instilled in their early lives. In view of the above findings, this study makes theoretical contribution to a number of core literatures: authentic leadership, role transition and knowledge-absences. In terms of leadership development, the findings point to the necessity to prepare leaders for the challenges they will encounter at the pivotal stages of the leadership role.