Predicting 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany: an update based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.

Optimisation of immune effector function within the tumour microenvironment

Cancer represents a leading of cause of death in the developed world, inflicting tremendous suffering and plundering billions from health budgets. The traditional treatment approaches of surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy have achieved little in terms of cure for this deadly disease. Instead, life is prolonged for many, with dubious quality of life, only for disease to reappear with the inevitable fatal outcome. “Blue sky” thinking is required to tackle this disease and improve outcomes. The realisation and acceptance of the intrinsic role of the immune system in cancer pathogenesis, pathophysiology and treatment represented such a “blue sky” thought. Moreover, the embracement of immunotherapy, the concept of targeting immune cells rather than the tumour cells themselves, represents a paradigm shift in the approach to cancer therapy. The harnessing of immunotherapy demands radical and innovative therapeutic endeavours – endeavours such as gene and cell therapies and RNA interference, which two decades ago existed as mere concepts. This thesis straddles the frontiers of fundamental tumour immunobiology and novel therapeutic discovery, design and delivery. The work undertaken focused on two distinct immune cell populations known to undermine the immune response to cancer – suppressive T cells and macrophages. Novel RNAi mediators were designed, validated and incorporated into clinically relevant gene therapy vectors – involving a traditional lentiviral vector approach, and a novel bacterial vector strategy. Chapter 2 deals with the design of novel RNAi mediators against FOXP3 – a crucial regulator of the immunosuppressive regulatory T cell population. Two mediators were tested and validated. The superior mediator was taken forward as part of work in chapter 3. Chapter 3 deals with transposing the RNA sequence from chapter 2 into a DNA-based construct and subsequent incorporation into a lentiviral-based vector system. The lentiviral vector was shown to mediate gene delivery in vitro and functional RNAi was achieved against FOXP3. Proof of gene delivery was further confirmed in vivo in tumour-bearing animals. Chapter 4 focuses on a different immune cell population – tumour-associated macrophages. Non-invasive bacteria were explored as a specific means of delivering gene therapy to this phagocytic cell type. Proof of delivery was shown in vitro and in vivo. Moreover, in vivo delivery of a gene by this method achieved the desired immune response in terms of cytokine profile. Overall, the data presented here advance exploration within the field of cancer immunotherapy, introduce novel delivery and therapeutic strategies, and demonstrate pre-clinically the potential for such novel anti-cancer therapies.

Digital signal processing and artificial intelligence for the automated classification of food allergy

As a by-product of the ‘information revolution’ which is currently unfolding, lifetimes of man (and indeed computer) hours are being allocated for the automated and intelligent interpretation of data. This is particularly true in medical and clinical settings, where research into machine-assisted diagnosis of physiological conditions gains momentum daily. Of the conditions which have been addressed, however, automated classification of allergy has not been investigated, even though the numbers of allergic persons are rising, and undiagnosed allergies are most likely to elicit fatal consequences. On the basis of the observations of allergists who conduct oral food challenges (OFCs), activity-based analyses of allergy tests were performed. Algorithms were investigated and validated by a pilot study which verified that accelerometer-based inquiry of human movements is particularly well-suited for objective appraisal of activity. However, when these analyses were applied to OFCs, accelerometer-based investigations were found to provide very poor separation between allergic and non-allergic persons, and it was concluded that the avenues explored in this thesis are inadequate for the classification of allergy. Heart rate variability (HRV) analysis is known to provide very significant diagnostic information for many conditions. Owing to this, electrocardiograms (ECGs) were recorded during OFCs for the purpose of assessing the effect that allergy induces on HRV features. It was found that with appropriate analysis, excellent separation between allergic and nonallergic subjects can be obtained. These results were, however, obtained with manual QRS annotations, and these are not a viable methodology for real-time diagnostic applications. Even so, this was the first work which has categorically correlated changes in HRV features to the onset of allergic events, and manual annotations yield undeniable affirmation of this. Fostered by the successful results which were obtained with manual classifications, automatic QRS detection algorithms were investigated to facilitate the fully automated classification of allergy. The results which were obtained by this process are very promising. Most importantly, the work that is presented in this thesis did not obtain any false positive classifications. This is a most desirable result for OFC classification, as it allows complete confidence to be attributed to classifications of allergy. Furthermore, these results could be particularly advantageous in clinical settings, as machine-based classification can detect the onset of allergy which can allow for early termination of OFCs. Consequently, machine-based monitoring of OFCs has in this work been shown to possess the capacity to significantly and safely advance the current state of clinical art of allergy diagnosis

Immune and stress factors in the pathophysiology of the mdx mouse model of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy

Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) is a fatal multi-system neuromuscular disease caused by loss of dystrophin. The loss of dystrophin from membranes of contractile muscle cells and the dysregulation of the DAPC, induces chronic inflammation due to tissue necrosis and eventual replacement with collagen which weakens muscular force and strength. Dystrophin deficiency may cause under-diagnosed features of DMD include mood disorders such as depression and anxiety and dysfunction of the gastrointestinal tract. The first study in the thesis examined mood in the dystrophin-deficient mdx mouse model of DMD and examined the effects of the tri-cyclic antidepressant, amitriptyline on behaviours. Amitriptyline had anti-depressant and anxiolytic effects in the mdx mice possibly through effects on stress factors such as corticotrophin-releasing factor (CRF). This antidepressant also reduced skeletal muscle inflammation and caused a reduction in circulating interleukin (IL)-6 levels. In the second and third studies, we specifically blocked IL-6 signalling and used Urocortin 2, CRFR2 agonist to investigate their potential as therapeutic targets in mdx mice pathophysiology. Isometric and isotonic contractile properties of the diaphragm, were compared in mdx mice treated with anti IL-6 receptor antibodies (anti IL-6R) and/or Urocortin 2. Deficits in force production, work and power detected in mdx mice were improved with treatment. In study three I investigated contractile properties in gastrointestinal smooth muscle. As compared to wild type mice, mdx mice had slower faecal transit times, shorter colons with thickened muscle layers and increased contractile activity in response to recombinant IL-6. Blocking IL-6 signalling resulted in an increase in colon length, normalised faecal output times and a reduction in IL-6-evoked contractile activity. The findings from these studies indicate that for both diaphragm and gastrointestinal function in a dystrophin-deficient model, targeting of IL-6 and CRFR2 signalling has beneficial therapeutic effects.