Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

The political and economic context of Keynes’s 1933 Finlay lecture: transforming a business practitioner’s ways of knowing

This thesis is structured in the format of a three part Portfolio of Exploration to facilitate transformation in my ways of knowing to enhance an experienced business practitioner’s capabilities and effectiveness. A key factor in my ways of knowing, as opposed to what I know, is my exploration of context and assumptions. By interacting with my cultural, intellectual, economic, and social history, I seek to become critically aware of the biographical, historical, and cultural context of my beliefs and feelings about myself. This Portfolio is not exclusively for historians of economics or historians of ideas but also for those interested in becoming more aware of how these culturally assimilated frames of reference and bundles of assumptions that influence the way they perceive, think, decide, feel and interpret their experiences in order to operate more effectively in their professional and organisational lives. In the first part of my Portfolio, I outline and reflect upon my Portfolio’s overarching theory of adult development; the writings of Harvard’s Robert Kegan and Columbia University’s Jack Mezirow. The second part delves further into how meaning-making, the activity of how one organises and makes sense of the world and how meaning-making evolves to different levels of complexity. I explore how past experience and our interpretations of history influences our understandings since all perception is inevitably tinged with bias and entrenched ‘theory-laden’ assumptions. In my third part, I explore the 1933 inaugural University College Dublin Finlay Lecture delivered by economist John Maynard Keynes. My findings provide a new perspective and understanding of Keynes’s 1933 lecture by not solely reading or relying upon the text of the three contextualised essay versions of his lecture. The purpose and context of Keynes’s original longer lecture version was quite different to the three shorter essay versions published for the American, British and German audiences.

Investigation of lactic acid bacteria mediated bioprotection with applications in cereal industry. Case-study: malting process

Antifungal compounds produced by Lactic acid bacteria (LAB) metabolites can be natural and reliable alternative for reducing fungal infections pre- and post-harvest with a multitude of additional advantages for cereal-base products. Toxigenic and spoilage fungi are responsible for numerous diseases and economic losses. This thesis includes an overview of the impact fungi have on aspects of the cereal food chain. The applicability of LAB in plant protection and cereal industry is discussed in detail. Specific case studies include Fusarium head blight, and the impact of fungi in the malting and baking industry. The impact of Fusarium culmorum infected raw barley on the final malt quality was part of the investigation. In vitro infected barley grains were fully characterized. The study showed that the germinative energy of infected barley grains decreased by 45% and grains accumulated 199 μg.kg-1 of deoxynivalenol (DON). Barley grains were subsequently malted and fully characterized. Fungal biomass increased during all stages of malting. Infected malt accumulated 8-times its DON concentration during malting. Infected malt grains revealed extreme structural changes due to proteolytic, (hemi)-cellulolytic and starch degrading activity of the fungi, this led to increased friability and fragmentation. Infected grains also had higher protease and β-glucanase activities, lower amylase activity, a greater proportion of free amino and soluble nitrogen, and a lower β-glucan content. Malt loss was over 27% higher in infected malt when compared to the control. The protein compositional changes and respective enzymatic activity of infected barley and respective malt were characterized using a wide range of methods. F. culmorum infected barley grains showed an increase in proteolytic activity and protein extractability. Several metabolic proteins decreased and increased at different rates during infection and malting, showing a complex F. culmorum infection interdependence. In vitro F. culmorum infected malt was used to produce lager beer to investigate changes caused by the fungi during the brewing processes and their effect on beer quality attributes. It was found, that the wort containing infected malt had a lower pH, a higher FAN, higher β-glucan and a 45% increase in the purging rate, and led to premature yeast flocculation. The beer produced with infected malt (IB) had also a significantly different amino acid profile. IB flavour characterization revealed a higher concentration of esters, fusel alcohols, fatty acids, ketones, and dimethylsulfide, and in particular, acetaldehyde, when compared to the control. IB had a greater proportion of Strecker aldehydes and Maillard products contributing to an increased beer staling character. IB resulted in a 67% darker colour with a trend to better foam stability. It was also found that 78% of the accumulated mycotoxin deoxynivalenol in the malt was transferred into beer. A LAB cell-freesupernatant (cfs), produced in wort-base substrate, was investigated for its ability to inhibit Fusarium growth during malting. Wort was a suitable substrate for LAB exhibiting antifungal activity. Lactobacillus amylovorus DSM19280 inhibited 104 spores.mL-1 for 7 days, after 120 h of fermentation, while Lactobacillus reuteri R29 inhibited 105 spores.mL-1 for 7 days, after 48 h of fermentation. Both LAB cfs had significant different organic acid profiles. Acid-base antifungal compounds were identified and, phenyllactic, hydroxy-phenyllactic, and benzoic acids were present in higher concentrations when compared to the control. A 3 °P wort substrate inoculated With L. reuteri R29 (cfs) was applied in malting and successfully inhibited Fusarium growth by 23%, and mycotoxin DON by 80%. Malt attributes resulted in highly modified grains, lower pH, higher colouration, and higher extract yield. The implementation of selected LAB producing antifungal compounds can be used successfully in the malting process to reduce mould growth and mycotoxin production.

Exploring an agent as an economic insider threat solution

The insider threat is a security problem that is well-known and has a long history, yet it still remains an invisible enemy. Insiders know the security processes and have accesses that allow them to easily cover their tracks. In recent years the idea of monitoring separately for these threats has come into its own. However, the tools currently in use have disadvantages and one of the most effective techniques of human review is costly. This paper explores the development of an intelligent agent that uses already in-place computing material for inference as an inexpensive monitoring tool for insider threats. Design Science Research (DSR) is a methodology used to explore and develop an IT artifact, such as for this intelligent agent research. This methodology allows for a structure that can guide a deep search method for problems that may not be possible to solve or could add to a phenomenological instantiation.

Depression and 'crises of meaninglessness' in the political-economic theology of the money-God

The thesis starts with a historical analysis of the development of depression as a concept. Through this inquiry, the controversies behind the apparent consensus about depression’s etiology and treatment are illuminated, suggesting that the understanding of the climbing rates of depression in contemporary Western civilization is still up for grabs. That’s what the thesis sets out to investigate. In order to accomplish this aim, the study builds upon the classical accounts of Georg Simmel, Émile Durkheim and the more contemporary ideas of Dany-Robert Dufour, in dialogue with an array of supplementary theoretical sources. Navigating through this ‘sea’ of extraordinary and different theories, a new avenue of reflections arises, contributing for the sophistication of the questions made about the phenomenon of depression’s rates. The fundamental argument emerging from this theoretical undertaking is that ‘crises of meaninglessness’ that pervade the collective body of Western contemporary societies have, as one of its consequences, the expansion of depression rates. Meaninglessness in contemporary times is the primary object of investigation of the thesis. The concept, in the context of this study, is not understood as merely an effect of the historical decline of shared social norms due to processes of individualization. Rather, it is claimed, it originates from and is reinforced by the ‘political-economic theology of neo-liberalism’ which becomes virtually generalized in the West, erecting money as a God. The study concludes that by undermining culturally established values, ideals, institutions and principles that may block the dissemination of commodities this new transcendence has been challenging the task of signifying life, potentializing – among other subjective difficulties – the diffusion of depression.