To what extent does the Health Professions Admission Test-Ireland predict performance in early undergraduate tests of communication and clinical skills? – An observational cohort study

Background: Internationally, tests of general mental ability are used in the selection of medical students. Examples include the Medical College Admission Test, Undergraduate Medicine and Health Sciences Admission Test and the UK Clinical Aptitude Test. The most widely used measure of their efficacy is predictive validity.A new tool, the Health Professions Admission Test- Ireland (HPAT-Ireland), was introduced in 2009. Traditionally, selection to Irish undergraduate medical schools relied on academic achievement. Since 2009, Irish and EU applicants are selected on a combination of their secondary school academic record (measured predominately by the Leaving Certificate Examination) and HPAT-Ireland score. This is the first study to report on the predictive validity of the HPAT-Ireland for early undergraduate assessments of communication and clinical skills. Method. Students enrolled at two Irish medical schools in 2009 were followed up for two years. Data collected were gender, HPAT-Ireland total and subsection scores; Leaving Certificate Examination plus HPAT-Ireland combined score, Year 1 Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) scores (Total score, communication and clinical subtest scores), Year 1 Multiple Choice Questions and Year 2 OSCE and subset scores. We report descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficients and Multiple linear regression models. Results: Data were available for 312 students. In Year 1 none of the selection criteria were significantly related to student OSCE performance. The Leaving Certificate Examination and Leaving Certificate plus HPAT-Ireland combined scores correlated with MCQ marks.In Year 2 a series of significant correlations emerged between the HPAT-Ireland and subsections thereof with OSCE Communication Z-scores; OSCE Clinical Z-scores; and Total OSCE Z-scores. However on multiple regression only the relationship between Total OSCE Score and the Total HPAT-Ireland score remained significant; albeit the predictive power was modest. Conclusion: We found that none of our selection criteria strongly predict clinical and communication skills. The HPAT- Ireland appears to measures ability in domains different to those assessed by the Leaving Certificate Examination. While some significant associations did emerge in Year 2 between HPAT Ireland and total OSCE scores further evaluation is required to establish if this pattern continues during the senior years of the medical course.

Early detection of delirium in older medical inpatients: prodrome, predictors and motor subtyping

Background Delirium is highly prevalent, especially in older patients. It independently leads to adverse outcomes, but remains under-detected, particularly hypoactive forms. Although early identification and intervention is important, delirium prevention is key to improving outcomes. The delirium prodrome concept has been mooted for decades, but remains poorly characterised. Greater understanding of this prodrome would promote prompt identification of delirium-prone patients, and facilitate improved strategies for delirium prevention and management. Methods Medical inpatients of ≥70 years were screened for prevalent delirium using the Revised Delirium Rating Scale (DRS--‐R98). Those without prevalent delirium were assessed daily for delirium development, prodromal features and motor subtype. Survival analysis models identified which prodromal features predicted the emergence of incident delirium in the cohort in the first week of admission. The Delirium Motor Subtype Scale-4 was used to ascertain motor subtype. Results Of 555 patients approached, 191 patients were included in the prospective study. The median age was 80 (IQR 10) and 101 (52.9%) were male. Sixty-one patients developed incident delirium within a week of admission. Several prodromal features predicted delirium emergence in the cohort. Firstly, using a novel Prodromal Checklist based on the existing literature, and controlling for confounders, seven predictive behavioural features were identified in the prodromal period (for example, increasing confusion; and being easily distractible). Additionally, using serial cognitive tests and the DRS-R98 daily, multiple cognitive and other core delirium features were detected in the prodrome (for example inattention; and sleep-wake cycle disturbance). Examining longitudinal motor subtypes in delirium cases, subtypes were found to be predominantly stable over time, the most prevalent being hypoactive subtype (62.3%). Discussion This thesis explored multiple aspects of delirium in older medical inpatients, with particular focus on the characterisation of the delirium prodrome. These findings should help to inform future delirium educational programmes, and detection and prevention strategies.