Territorial development, planning reform and urban governance: the case of Ireland's second-tier cities

The increased emphasis within Europe on the role of second-tier cities has implications for the ways in which these urban centres are considered within national spatial planning strategies. In centralised, monocentric states like Ireland, there has been a general ambivalence towards urban policy for cities outside the capital city, and historically this has prevented the development of a strong, diversified urban hierarchy undermining prospects for balanced regional development. This paper examines the extent to which a new found emphasis on Ireland’s second-tier cities which emerged in the ‘Gateways’ policy of the National Spatial Strategy (NSS, 2002) was matched by subsequent political and administrative commitment to facilitate the development of these urban centres. Following a discussion of the position of second-tier cities in an international context and a brief overview of recent demographic and economic trends, the paper assesses the relative performance of Ireland’s second-tier cities in influencing development trends, highlighting a comprehensive failure to deliver compact urban growth. In this context, the paper then discusses the implications of current development plans for the second-tier cities and proposals for Irish local government reform for securing compact urban development.

Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

Childhood obesity in Ireland: recent trends and modifiable determinants

Background: Childhood obesity is a global epidemic posing a significant threat to the health and wellbeing of children. To reverse this epidemic, it is essential that we gain a deeper understanding of the complex array of driving factors at an individual, family and wider ecological level. Using a social-ecological framework, this thesis investigates the direction, magnitude and contribution of risk factors for childhood overweight and obesity at multiple levels of influence, with a particular focus on diet and physical activity. Methods: A systematic review was conducted to describe recent trends (from 2002-2012) in childhood overweight and obesity prevalence in Irish school children from the Republic of Ireland. Two datasets (Cork Children’s Lifestyle [CCLaS] Study and the Growing Up in Ireland [GUI] Study) were used to explore determinants of childhood overweight and obesity. Individual lifestyle factors examined were diet, physical activity and sedentary behaviour. The determinants of physical activity were also explored. Family factors examined were parental weight status and household socio-economic status. The impact of food access in the local area on diet quality and body mass index (BMI) was investigated as an environmental level risk factor. Results: Between 2002 and 2012, the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity in Ireland remained stable. There was some evidence to suggest that childhood obesity rates may have decreased slightly though one in four Irish children remained either overweight or obese. In the CCLaS study, overweight and obese children consumed more unhealthy foods than normal weight children. A diet quality score was constructed based on a previously validated adult diet score. Each one unit increase in diet quality was significantly associated with a decreased risk of childhood overweight and obesity. Individual level factors (including gender, being a member of a sports team, weight status) were more strongly associated with physical activity levels than family or environmental factors. Overweight and obese children were more sedentary and less active than normal weight children. There was a dose response relationship between time spent at moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and the risk of childhood obesity independent of sedentary time. In contrast, total sedentary time was not associated with the risk of childhood obesity independent of MVPA though screen time was associated with childhood overweight and obesity. In the GUI Study, only one in five children had 2 normal weight parents (or one normal weight parent in the case of single parent families). Having overweight and obese parents was a significant risk factor for overweight and obesity regardless of socio-economic characteristics of the household. Family income was not associated with the odds of childhood obesity but social class and parental education were important risk factors for childhood obesity. Access to food stores in the local environment did not impact dietary quality or the BMI of Irish children. However, there was some evidence to suggest that the economic resources of the family influenced diet and BMI. Discussion: Though childhood overweight and obesity rates appear to have stabilised over the previous decade, prevalence rates are unacceptably high. As expected, overweight and obesity were associated with a high energy intake and poor dietary quality. The findings also highlight strong associations between physical inactivity and the risk of overweight and obesity, with effect sizes greater than what have been typically found in adults. Important family level determinants of childhood overweight and obesity were also identified. The findings highlight the need for a multifaceted approach, targeting a range of modifiable determinants to tackle the problem. In particular, policies and interventions at the shared family environment or community level may be an effective mean of tackling this current epidemic.