Drug prescribing patterns in the General Medical Services Scheme in Ireland and projected costs to 2026

The primary objective is to investigate the main factors contributing to GMS expenditure on pharmaceutical prescribing and projecting this expenditure to 2026. This study is located in the area of pharmacoeconomic cost containment and projections literature. The thesis has five main aims: 1. To determine the main factors contributing to GMS expenditure on pharmaceutical prescribing. 2. To develop a model to project GMS prescribing expenditure in five year intervals to 2026, using 2006 Central Statistics Office (CSO) Census data and 2007 Health Service Executive{Primary Care Reimbursement Service (HSE{PCRS) sample data. 3. To develop a model to project GMS prescribing expenditure in five year intervals to 2026, using 2012 HSE{PCRS population data, incorporating cost containment measures, and 2011 CSO Census data. 4. To investigate the impact of demographic factors and the pharmacology of drugs (Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC)) on GMS expenditure. 5. To explore the consequences of GMS policy changes on prescribing expenditure and behaviour between 2008 and 2014. The thesis is centered around three published articles and is located between the end of a booming Irish economy in 2007, a recession from 2008{2013, to the beginning of a recovery in 2014. The literature identified a number of factors influencing pharmaceutical expenditure, including population growth, population aging, changes in drug utilisation and drug therapies, age, gender and location. The literature identified the methods previously used in predictive modelling and consequently, the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) model was used to simulate projected expenditures to 2026. Also, the literature guided the use of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression in determining demographic and pharmacology factors influencing prescribing expenditure. The study commences against a backdrop of growing GMS prescribing costs, which has risen from e250 million in 1998 to over e1 billion by 2007. Using a sample 2007 HSE{PCRS prescribing data (n=192,000) and CSO population data from 2008, (Conway et al., 2014) estimated GMS prescribing expenditure could rise to e2 billion by2026. The cogency of these findings was impacted by the global economic crisis of 2008, which resulted in a sharp contraction in the Irish economy, mounting fiscal deficits resulting in Ireland's entry to a bailout programme. The sustainability of funding community drug schemes, such as the GMS, came under the spotlight of the EU, IMF, ECB (Trioka), who set stringent targets for reducing drug costs, as conditions of the bailout programme. Cost containment measures included: the introduction of income eligibility limits for GP visit cards and medical cards for those aged 70 and over, introduction of co{payments for prescription items, reductions in wholesale mark{up and pharmacy dispensing fees. Projections for GMS expenditure were reevaluated using 2012 HSE{PCRS prescribing population data and CSO population data based on Census 2011. Taking into account both cost containment measures and revised population predictions, GMS expenditure is estimated to increase by 64%, from e1.1 billion in 2016 to e1.8 billion by 2026, (ConwayLenihan and Woods, 2015). In the final paper, a cross{sectional study was carried out on HSE{PCRS population prescribing database (n=1.63 million claimants) to investigate the impact of demographic factors, and the pharmacology of the drugs, on GMS prescribing expenditure. Those aged over 75 (ẞ = 1:195) and cardiovascular prescribing (ẞ = 1:193) were the greatest contributors to annual GMS prescribing costs. Respiratory drugs (Montelukast) recorded the highest proportion and expenditure for GMS claimants under the age of 15. Drugs prescribed for the nervous system (Escitalopram, Olanzapine and Pregabalin) were highest for those between 16 and 64 years with cardiovascular drugs (Statins) were highest for those aged over 65. Females are more expensive than males and are prescribed more items across the four ATC groups, except among children under 11, (ConwayLenihan et al., 2016). This research indicates that growth in the proportion of the elderly claimants and associated levels of cardiovascular prescribing, particularly for statins, will present difficulties for Ireland in terms of cost containment. Whilst policies aimed at cost containment (co{payment charges, generic substitution, reference pricing, adjustments to GMS eligibility) can be used to curtail expenditure, health promotional programs and educational interventions should be given equal emphasis. Also policies intended to affect physicians prescribing behaviour include guidelines, information (about price and less expensive alternatives) and feedback, and the use of budgetary restrictions could yield savings.

Patterns of psychotropic prescribing and polypharmacy in older hospitalized patients in Ireland: the influence of dementia on prescribing

Neuropsychiatric Symptoms (NPS) are ubiquitous in dementia and are often treated pharmacologically. The objectives of this study were to describe the use of psychotropic, anti-cholinergic, and deliriogenic medications and to identify the prevalence of polypharmacy and psychotropic polypharmacy, among older hospitalized patients in Ireland, with and without dementia. All older patients (≥ 70 years old) that had elective or emergency admissions to six Irish study hospitals were eligible for inclusion in a longitudinal observational study. Of 676 eligible patients, 598 patients were recruited and diagnosed as having dementia, or not, by medical experts. These 598 patients were assessed for delirium, medication use, co-morbidity, functional ability, and nutritional status. We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional analysis of medication data on admission for 583/598 patients with complete medication data, and controlled for age, sex, and co-morbidity. Of 149 patients diagnosed with dementia, only 53 had a previous diagnosis. At hospital admission, 458/583 patients experienced polypharmacy (≥ 5 medications). People with dementia (PwD) were significantly more likely to be prescribed at least one psychotropic medication than patients without dementia (99/147 vs. 182/436; p < 0.001). PwD were also more likely to experience psychotropic polypharmacy (≥ two psychotropics) than those without dementia (54/147 vs. 61/436; p < 0.001). There were no significant differences in the prescribing patterns of anti-cholinergics (23/147 vs. 42/436; p = 0.18) or deliriogenics (79/147 vs. 235/436; p = 0.62). Polypharmacy and psychotropic drug use is highly prevalent in older Irish hospitalized patients, especially in PwD. Hospital admission presents an ideal time for medication reviews in PwD.

Hazardous alcohol consumption among university students in Ireland: a cross-sectional study

Objective: There is considerable evidence of a cultural shift towards heavier alcohol consumption among university students, especially women. The aim of this study is to investigate the prevalence and correlates of hazardous alcohol consumption (HAC) among university students with particular reference to gender and to compare different modes of data collection in this population. Setting: A large Irish university. Design: A cross-sectional study using a classroom distributed paper questionnaire. Participants: A total of 2275 undergraduates completed the classroom survey, 84% of those in class and 51% of those registered for the relevant module. Main outcome measures: Prevalence of HAC measured using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test for Consumption (AUDIT-C) and the proportion of university students reporting 1 or more of 13 adverse consequences linked to HAC. HAC was defined as an AUDIT-C score of 6 or more among males and 5 or more among females. Results: In the classroom sample, 66.4% (95% CI 64.4 to 68.3) reported HAC (65.2% men and 67.3% women). In women, 57.4% met HAC thresholds for men. Similar patterns of adverse consequences were observed among men and women. Students with a hazardous consumption pattern were more likely to report smoking, illicit drug use and being sexually active. Conclusions: The findings highlight the high prevalence of HAC among university students relative to the general population. Public policy measures require review to tackle the short-term and long-term risks to physical, mental and social health and well-being.

Vulnerability or resilience? Psycho-social factors associated with deliberate self-harm among adolescents

Background: Deliberate self-harm (DSH) is common among adolescents in Ireland and internationally. Psychological factors, negative life events and lifestyle factors have been found to be associated with self-harm in this group. However, large scale population-based studies of adolescent selfharm and its correlates have been lacking, and internationally a standardised methodology was needed to facilitate comparative studies. The focus on vulnerability which has been prevalent in this field has meant that research has failed to examine resilient adaptation among at-risk adolescents. Method: Data were obtained from a cross-sectional school-based study conducted in Ireland and in each of the six other centres which participated in the Child and Adolescent Self-harm in Europe (CASE) study. In Ireland, 3,881 adolescents in 39 schools in completing the anonymous questionnaire, while across all 7 centres, over 30,000 young people participated. Data were gathered on health and lifestyle, self-harm thoughts and behaviour, a wide range of life events, psychological characteristics (anxiety and depressive symptoms, self-esteem, impulsivity and coping style), and support available to young people. Results: This thesis reports the findings of the Irish CASE centre as well as one international study. The factors associated with DSH among Irish adolescents differed by gender, but among both genders drug use and knowing a friend who had engaged in self-harm were associated with DSH. Among Irish boys, strong associations were found between bullying and poor mental health and DSH. Among boys who had been bullied, psychological and school factors were associated with DSH, while family support was protective. Links between stressful life events, psychological characteristics and DSH within the international CASE sample were examined. Increased history of self-harm thoughts and acts was associated with greater depression, anxiety and impulsivity, lower self esteem and an increased prevalence of ten different negative life events, supporting the hypothesis of a “dose-response” relationship between these risk factors and the self-harm process. Associations between coping style, mental health factors (depressive symptoms, anxiety and self-esteem) and self-harm were examined among Irish adolescents. Emotion-oriented coping was strongly associated with poorer mental health and self-harm thoughts and acts. A mediating effect of emotion-oriented coping on associations between mental health factors and DSH was found for both genders and between problem-oriented coping and mental health factors for girls. Similar mediating effects of coping style were found when risk of self-harm thoughts was examined. Resilient adaptation among adolescents exposed to suicidal behaviour of others was examined. Self-harm thoughts were common in these adolescents. Among those exposed to suicidal behaviour of others, vulnerability factors were drug use and higher levels of anxiety among boys, while for girls drug use, bullying and abuse were vulnerability factors, while resilience was associated with higher self-esteem and use of problem-oriented coping. Conclusion: These findings can aid in the identification of young people at risk of self-harm in the school setting and highlight the importance of mental health, peer-related and lifestyle factors in the development of DSH. High-risk groups of young people such as bullying victims and those exposed to suicidal behaviour of others have distinctive profiles of risk factors which differ from those of their peers. Findings relating to the importance of positive coping skills can inform positive mental health programmes, many of which aim to enhance life skills and build resilience among young people. Knowledge of the factors associated with positive adaptation among at-risk adolescents can inform prevention efforts among this group.