Specification of optimum holistic building environmental and energy performance information to support informed decision making

Political drivers such as the Kyoto protocol, the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive and the Energy end use and Services Directive have been implemented in response to an identified need for a reduction in human related CO2 emissions. Buildings account for a significant portion of global CO2 emissions, approximately 25-30%, and it is widely acknowledged by industry and research organisations that they operate inefficiently. In parallel, unsatisfactory indoor environmental conditions have proven to negatively impact occupant productivity. Legislative drivers and client education are seen as the key motivating factors for an improvement in the holistic environmental and energy performance of a building. A symbiotic relationship exists between building indoor environmental conditions and building energy consumption. However traditional Building Management Systems and Energy Management Systems treat these separately. Conventional performance analysis compares building energy consumption with a previously recorded value or with the consumption of a similar building and does not recognise the fact that all buildings are unique. Therefore what is required is a new framework which incorporates performance comparison against a theoretical building specific ideal benchmark. Traditionally Energy Managers, who work at the operational level of organisations with respect to building performance, do not have access to ideal performance benchmark information and as a result cannot optimally operate buildings. This thesis systematically defines Holistic Environmental and Energy Management and specifies the Scenario Modelling Technique which in turn uses an ideal performance benchmark. The holistic technique uses quantified expressions of building performance and by doing so enables the profiled Energy Manager to visualise his actions and the downstream consequences of his actions in the context of overall building operation. The Ideal Building Framework facilitates the use of this technique by acting as a Building Life Cycle (BLC) data repository through which ideal building performance benchmarks are systematically structured and stored in parallel with actual performance data. The Ideal Building Framework utilises transformed data in the form of the Ideal Set of Performance Objectives and Metrics which are capable of defining the performance of any building at any stage of the BLC. It is proposed that the union of Scenario Models for an individual building would result in a building specific Combination of Performance Metrics which would in turn be stored in the BLC data repository. The Ideal Data Set underpins the Ideal Set of Performance Objectives and Metrics and is the set of measurements required to monitor the performance of the Ideal Building. A Model View describes the unique building specific data relevant to a particular project stakeholder. The energy management data and information exchange requirements that underlie a Model View implementation are detailed and incorporate traditional and proposed energy management. This thesis also specifies the Model View Methodology which complements the Ideal Building Framework. The developed Model View and Rule Set methodology process utilises stakeholder specific rule sets to define stakeholder pertinent environmental and energy performance data. This generic process further enables each stakeholder to define the resolution of data desired. For example, basic, intermediate or detailed. The Model View methodology is applicable for all project stakeholders, each requiring its own customised rule set. Two rule sets are defined in detail, the Energy Manager rule set and the LEED Accreditor rule set. This particular measurement generation process accompanied by defined View would filter and expedite data access for all stakeholders involved in building performance. Information presentation is critical for effective use of the data provided by the Ideal Building Framework and the Energy Management View definition. The specifications for a customised Information Delivery Tool account for the established profile of Energy Managers and best practice user interface design. Components of the developed tool could also be used by Facility Managers working at the tactical and strategic levels of organisations. Informed decision making is made possible through specified decision assistance processes which incorporate the Scenario Modelling and Benchmarking techniques, the Ideal Building Framework, the Energy Manager Model View, the Information Delivery Tool and the established profile of Energy Managers. The Model View and Rule Set Methodology is effectively demonstrated on an appropriate mixed use existing ‘green’ building, the Environmental Research Institute at University College Cork, using the Energy Management and LEED rule sets. Informed Decision Making is also demonstrated using a prototype scenario for the demonstration building.

Building effectiveness communication ratios (BECs): an integrated ‘life-cycle’ methodology for mitigating energy-use in buildings

Current building regulations are generally prescriptive in nature. It is widely accepted in Europe that this form of building regulation is stifling technological innovation and leading to inadequate energy efficiency in the building stock. This has increased the motivation to move design practices towards a more ‘performance-based’ model in order to mitigate inflated levels of energy-use consumed by the building stock. A performance based model assesses the interaction of all building elements and the resulting impact on holistic building energy-use. However, this is a nebulous task due to building energy-use being affected by a myriad of heterogeneous agents. Accordingly, it is imperative that appropriate methods, tools and technologies are employed for energy prediction, measurement and evaluation throughout the project’s life cycle. This research also considers that it is imperative that the data is universally accessible by all stakeholders. The use of a centrally based product model for exchange of building information is explored. This research describes the development and implementation of a new building energy-use performance assessment methodology. Termed the Building Effectiveness Communications ratios (BECs) methodology, this performance-based framework is capable of translating complex definitions of sustainability for energy efficiency and depicting universally understandable views at all stage of the Building Life Cycle (BLC) to the project’s stakeholders. The enabling yardsticks of building energy-use performance, termed Ir and Pr, provide continuous design and operations feedback in order to aid the building’s decision makers. Utilised effectively, the methodology is capable of delivering quality assurance throughout the BLC by providing project teams with quantitative measurement of energy efficiency. Armed with these superior enabling tools for project stakeholder communication, it is envisaged that project teams will be better placed to augment a knowledge base and generate more efficient additions to the building stock.

Analysis of institutional arrangements and common pool resources governance: the case of Lake Tana sub-basin, Ethiopia

Although Common Pool Resources (CPRs) make up a significant share of total income for rural households in Ethiopia and elsewhere in developing world, limited access to these resources and environmental degradation threaten local livelihoods. As a result, the issues of management, governance of CPRs and how to prevent their over-exploitation are of great importance for development policy. This study examines the current state and dynamics of CPRs and overall resource governance system of the Lake Tana sub-basin. This research employed the modified form of Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework. The framework integrates the concept of Socio-Ecological Systems (SES) and Interactive Governance (IG) perspectives where social actors, institutions, the politico-economic context, discourses and ecological features across governance and government levels were considered. It has been observed that overexploitation, degradation and encroachment of CPRs have increased dramatically and this threatens the sustainability of Lake Tana ecosystem. The stakeholder analysis result reveals that there are multiple stakeholders with diverse interest in and power over CPRs. The analysis of institutional arrangements reveals that the existing formal rules and regulations governing access to and control over CPRs could not be implemented and were not effective to legally bind and govern CPR user’s behavior at the operational level. The study also shows that a top-down and non-participatory policy formulation, law and decision making process overlooks the local contexts (local knowledge and informal institutions). The outcomes of examining the participation of local resource users, as an alternative to a centralized, command-and-control, and hierarchical approach to resource management and governance, have called for a fundamental shift in CPR use, management and governance to facilitate the participation of stakeholders in decision making. Therefore, establishing a multi-level stakeholder governance system as an institutional structure and process is necessary to sustain stakeholder participation in decision-making regarding CPR use, management and governance.

Broadening public input into science policy decision making: can the democratic model for science communication influence scientific, innovation and technological trajectories?

This PhD thesis investigates the potential use of science communication models to engage a broader swathe of actors in decision making in relation to scientific and technological innovation in order to address possible democratic deficits in science and technology policy-making. A four-pronged research approach has been employed to examine different representations of the public(s) and different modes of engagement. The first case study investigates whether patient-groups could represent an alternative needs-driven approach to biomedical and health sciences R & D. This is followed by enquiry into the potential for Science Shops to represent a bottom-up approach to promote research and development of local relevance. The barriers and opportunities for the involvement of scientific researchers in science communication are next investigated via a national survey which is comparable to a similar survey conducted in the UK. The final case study investigates to what extent opposition or support regarding nanotechnology (as an emerging technology) is reflected amongst the YouTube user community and the findings are considered in the context of how support or opposition to new or emerging technologies can be addressed using conflict resolution based approaches to manage potential conflict trajectories. The research indicates that the majority of communication exercises of relevance to science policy and planning take the form of a one-way flow of information with little or no facility for public feedback. This thesis proposes that a more bottom-up approach to research and technology would help broaden acceptability and accountability for decisions made relating to new or existing technological trajectories. This approach could be better integrated with and complementary to government, institutional, e.g. university, and research funding agencies activities and help ensure that public needs and issues are better addressed directly by the research community. Such approaches could also facilitate empowerment of societal stakeholders regarding scientific literacy and agenda-setting. One-way information relays could be adapted to facilitate feedback from representative groups e.g. Non-governmental organisations or Civil Society Organisations (such as patient groups) in order to enhance the functioning and socio-economic relevance of knowledge-based societies to the betterment of human livelihoods.

Risk management and the potential of cattle insurance in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

This study explores the role of livestock insurance to complement existing risk management strategies adopted by smallholder farmers. Using survey data, first, it provides insights into farmers’ risk perception of livestock farming, in terms of likelihood and severity of risk, attitude to risk and their determinants. Second, it examines farmers’ risk management strategies and their determinants. Third, it investigates farmers’ potential engagement with a hypothetical cattle insurance decision and their intensity of participation. Factor analysis is used to analyse risk sources and risk management, multiple regressions are used to identify the determinants; a Heckman model was used to investigate cattle insurance participation and intensity of participation. The findings show different groups of farmers display different risk attitude in their decision-making related to livestock farming. Production risk (especially livestock diseases) was perceived as the most likely and severe source of risk. Disease control was perceived as the best strategy to manage risk overall. Disease control and feed management were important strategies to mitigate the production risks. Disease control and participation on safety net program were found to be important to counter households’ financial risks. With regard to the hypothetical cattle insurance scheme, 94.38% of households were interested to participate in cattle insurance. Of those households that accepted cattle insurance, 77.38% of the households were willing to pay the benchmark annual premium of 4% of the animal value while for the remaining households this was not affordable. The average number of cattle that farmers were willing to insure was 2.71 at this benchmark. Results revealed that income (log income) and education levels influenced positively and significantly farmers’ participation in cattle insurance and the number of cattle to insure. The findings prompt policy makers to consider livestock insurance as a complement to existing risk management strategies to reduce poverty in the long-run.

Reasoning with imprecise trade-offs in decision making under certainty and uncertainty

In many real world situations, we make decisions in the presence of multiple, often conflicting and non-commensurate objectives. The process of optimizing systematically and simultaneously over a set of objective functions is known as multi-objective optimization. In multi-objective optimization, we have a (possibly exponentially large) set of decisions and each decision has a set of alternatives. Each alternative depends on the state of the world, and is evaluated with respect to a number of criteria. In this thesis, we consider the decision making problems in two scenarios. In the first scenario, the current state of the world, under which the decisions are to be made, is known in advance. In the second scenario, the current state of the world is unknown at the time of making decisions. For decision making under certainty, we consider the framework of multiobjective constraint optimization and focus on extending the algorithms to solve these models to the case where there are additional trade-offs. We focus especially on branch-and-bound algorithms that use a mini-buckets algorithm for generating the upper bound at each node of the search tree (in the context of maximizing values of objectives). Since the size of the guiding upper bound sets can become very large during the search, we introduce efficient methods for reducing these sets, yet still maintaining the upper bound property. We define a formalism for imprecise trade-offs, which allows the decision maker during the elicitation stage, to specify a preference for one multi-objective utility vector over another, and use such preferences to infer other preferences. The induced preference relation then is used to eliminate the dominated utility vectors during the computation. For testing the dominance between multi-objective utility vectors, we present three different approaches. The first is based on a linear programming approach, the second is by use of distance-based algorithm (which uses a measure of the distance between a point and a convex cone); the third approach makes use of a matrix multiplication, which results in much faster dominance checks with respect to the preference relation induced by the trade-offs. Furthermore, we show that our trade-offs approach, which is based on a preference inference technique, can also be given an alternative semantics based on the well known Multi-Attribute Utility Theory. Our comprehensive experimental results on common multi-objective constraint optimization benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed enhancements allow the algorithms to scale up to much larger problems than before. For decision making problems under uncertainty, we describe multi-objective influence diagrams, based on a set of p objectives, where utility values are vectors in Rp, and are typically only partially ordered. These can be solved by a variable elimination algorithm, leading to a set of maximal values of expected utility. If the Pareto ordering is used this set can often be prohibitively large. We consider approximate representations of the Pareto set based on ϵ-coverings, allowing much larger problems to be solved. In addition, we define a method for incorporating user trade-offs, which also greatly improves the efficiency.

The effects of copayment policies on adherence to prescription medicines in publicly insured populations

Introduction: Copayments for prescriptions are associated with decreased adherence to medicines resulting in increased health service utilisation, morbidity and mortality. In October 2010 a 50c copayment per prescription item was introduced on the General Medical Services (GMS) scheme in Ireland, the national public health insurance programme for low-income and older people. The copayment was increased to €1.50 per prescription item in January 2013. To date, the impact of these copayments on adherence to prescription medicines on the GMS scheme has not been assessed. Given that the GMS population comprises more than 40% of the Irish population, this presents an important public health problem. The aim of this thesis was to assess the impact of two prescription copayments, 50c and €1.50, on adherence to medicines.Methods: In Chapter 2 the published literature was systematically reviewed with meta-analysis to a) develop evidence on cost-sharing for prescriptions and adherence to medicines and b) develop evidence for an alternative policy option; removal of copayments. The core research question of this thesis was addressed by a large before and after longitudinal study, with comparator group, using the national pharmacy claims database. New users of essential and less-essential medicines were included in the study with sample sizes ranging from 7,007 to 136,111 individuals in different medication groups. Segmented regression was used with generalised estimating equations to allow for correlations between repeated monthly measurements of adherence. A qualitative study involving 24 individuals was conducted to assess patient attitudes towards the 50c copayment policy. The qualitative and quantitative findings were integrated in the discussion chapter of the thesis. The vast majority of the literature on this topic area is generated in North America, therefore a test of generalisability was carried out in Chapter 5 by comparing the impact of two similar copayment interventions on adherence, one in the U.S. and one in Ireland. The method used to measure adherence in Chapters 3 and 5 was validated in Chapter 6. Results: The systematic review with meta-analysis demonstrated an 11% (95% CI 1.09 to 1.14) increased odds of non-adherence when publicly insured populations were exposed to copayments. The second systematic review found moderate but variable improvements in adherence after removal/reduction of copayments in a general population. The core paper of this thesis found that both the 50c and €1.50 copayments on the GMS scheme were associated with larger reductions in adherence to less-essential medicines than essential medicines directly after the implementation of policies. An important exception to this pattern was observed; adherence to anti-depressant medications declined by a larger extent than adherence to other essential medicines after both copayments. The cross country comparison indicated that North American evidence on cost-sharing for prescriptions is not automatically generalisable to the Irish setting. Irish patients had greater immediate decreases of -5.3% (95% CI -6.9 to -3.7) and -2.8% (95% CI -4.9 to -0.7) in adherence to anti-hypertensives and anti-hyperlipidaemic medicines, respectively, directly after the policy changes, relative to their U.S. counterparts. In the long term, however, the U.S. and Irish populations had similar behaviours. The concordance study highlighted the possibility of a measurement bias occurring for the measurement of adherence to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in Chapter 3. Conclusions: This thesis has presented two reviews of international cost-sharing policies, an assessment of the generalisability of international evidence and both qualitative and quantitative examinations of cost-sharing policies for prescription medicines on the GMS scheme in Ireland. It was found that the introduction of a 50c copayment and its subsequent increase to €1.50 on the GMS scheme had a larger impact on adherence to less-essential medicines relative to essential medicines, with the exception of anti-depressant medications. This is in line with policy objectives to reduce moral hazard and is therefore demonstrative of the value of such policies. There are however some caveats. The copayment now stands at €2.50 per prescription item. The impact of this increase in copayment has yet to be assessed which is an obvious point for future research. Careful monitoring for adverse effects in socio-economically disadvantaged groups within the GMS population is also warranted. International evidence can be applied to the Irish setting to aid in future decision making in this area, but not without placing it in the local context first. Patients accepted the introduction of the 50c charge, however did voice concerns over a rising price. The challenge for policymakers is to find the ‘optimal copayment’ – whereby moral hazard is decreased, but access to essential chronic disease medicines that provide advantages at the population level is not deterred. This evidence presented in this thesis will be utilisable for future policy-making in Ireland.

Response to the review of the white paper on Irish aid. The urbanisation of poverty: drawing on the skills and techniques of spatial planning to support the aid programme

Submission on behalf of UCC to the Government Consultation on the White paper on Irish Aid

Biased group decision-making and the effect of computer-mediated communication: separating the effects of anonymity, voting and blind picking

The influence of communication technology on group decision-making has been examined in many studies. But the findings are inconsistent. Some studies showed a positive effect on decision quality, other studies have shown that communication technology makes the decision even worse. One possible explanation for these different findings could be the use of different Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) in these studies, with some GDSS better fitting to the given task than others and with different sets of functions. This paper outlines an approach with an information system solely designed to examine the effect of (1) anonymity, (2) voting and (3) blind picking on decision quality, discussion quality and perceived quality of information.