Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Training in and assessment of the procedural skills required to perform peripheral nerve blockade

The training and ongoing education of medical practitioners has undergone major changes in an incremental fashion over the past 15 years. These changes have been driven by patient safety, educational, economic and legislative/regulatory factors. In the near future, training in procedural skills will undergo a paradigm shift to proficiency based progression with associated requirements for competence-based programmes, valid, reliable assessment tools and simulation technology. Before training begins, the learning outcomes require clear definition; any form of assessment applied should include measurement of these outcomes. Currently training in a procedural skill often takes place on an ad hoc basis. The number of attempts necessary to attain a defined degree of proficiency varies from procedure to procedure. Convincing evidence exists that simulation training helps trainees to acquire skills more efficiently rather than relying on opportunities in their clinical practice. Simulation provides a safe, stress free environment for trainees for skill acquisition, generalization and transfer via deliberate practice. The work described in this thesis contributes to a greater understanding of how medical procedures can be performed more safely and effectively through education. The effect of feedback, provided to novices in a standardized setting on a bench model, based on knowledge of performance was associated with an increase in the speed of skill acquisition and a decrease in error rate during initial learning. The timing of feedback was also associated with effective learning of skill. A marked attrition of skills (independent of the type of feedback provided) was demonstrable 24 hrs after they have first been learned. Using the principles of feedback as described above, when studying the effect of an intense training program on novices of varied years of experience in anaesthesia (i.e. the present training programmes / courses of an intense training day for one or more procedures). There was a marked attrition of skill at 24 hours with a significant correlation with increasing years of experience; there also appeared to be an inverse relationship between years of experience in anaesthesia and performance. The greater the number of years of practice experience, the longer it required a learner to acquire a new skill. The findings of the studies described in this thesis may have important implications for the trainers, trainees and training bodies in the design and implementation of training courses and the formats of delivery of changing curricula. Both curricula and training modalities will need to take account of characteristics of individual learners and the dynamic nature of procedural healthcare.

Assessment of primary energy conversions of oscillating water columns. I. Hydrodynamic analysis

This is an investigation on the development of a numerical assessment method for the hydrodynamic performance of an oscillating water column (OWC) wave energy converter. In the research work, a systematic study has been carried out on how the hydrodynamic problem can be solved and represented reliably, focusing on the phenomena of the interactions of the wave-structure and the wave-internal water surface. These phenomena are extensively examined numerically to show how the hydrodynamic parameters can be reliably obtained and used for the OWC performance assessment. In studying the dynamic system, a two-body system is used for the OWC wave energy converter. The first body is the device itself, and the second body is an imaginary “piston,” which replaces part of the water at the internal water surface in the water column. One advantage of the two-body system for an OWC wave energy converter is its physical representations, and therefore, the relevant mathematical expressions and the numerical simulation can be straightforward. That is, the main hydrodynamic parameters can be assessed using the boundary element method of the potential flow in frequency domain, and the relevant parameters are transformed directly from frequency domain to time domain for the two-body system. However, as it is shown in the research, an appropriate representation of the “imaginary” piston is very important, especially when the relevant parameters have to be transformed from frequency-domain to time domain for a further analysis. The examples given in the research have shown that the correct parameters transformed from frequency domain to time domain can be a vital factor for a successful numerical simulation.

A Delay Vector Variance based marker for an output-only assessment of structural changes in tension leg platforms

Although aspects of power generation of many offshore renewable devices are well understood, their dynamic responses under high wind and wave conditions are still to be investigated to a great detail. Output only statistical markers are important for these offshore devices, since access to the device is limited and information about the exposure conditions and the true behaviour of the devices are generally partial, limited, and vague or even absent. The markers can summarise and characterise the behaviour of these devices from their dynamic response available as time series data. The behaviour may be linear or nonlinear and consequently a marker that can track the changes in structural situations can be quite important. These markers can then be helpful in assessing the current condition of the structure and can indicate possible intervention, monitoring or assessment. This paper considers a Delay Vector Variance based marker for changes in a tension leg platform tested in an ocean wave basin for structural changes brought about by single column dampers. The approach is based on dynamic outputs of the device alone and is based on the estimation of the nonlinearity of the output signal. The advantages of the selected marker and its response with changing structural properties are discussed. The marker is observed to be important for monitoring the as- deployed structural condition and is sensitive to changes in such conditions. Influence of exposure conditions of wave loading is also discussed in this study based only on experimental data.

Performance of a single liquid column damper for the control of dynamic responses of a tension leg platform

Tuned liquid column dampers have been proved to be successful in mitigating the dynamic responses of civil infrastructure. There have been some recent applications of this concept on wind turbines and this passive control system can help to mitigate responses of offshore floating platforms and wave devices. The control of dynamic responses of these devices is important for reducing loads on structural elements and facilitating operations and maintenance (O&M) activities. This paper outlines the use of a tuned single liquid column damper for the control of a tension leg platform supported wind turbine. Theoretical studies were carried out and a scaled model was tested in a wave basin to assess the performance of the damper. The tests on the model presented in this paper correspond to a platform with a very low natural frequency for surge, sway and yaw motions. For practical purposes, it was not possible to tune the liquid damper exactly to this frequency. The consequent approach taken and the efficiency of such approach are presented in this paper. Responses to waves of a single frequency are investigated along with responses obtained from wave spectra characterising typical sea states. The extent of control is quantified using peak and root mean squared dynamic responses respectively. The tests present some guidelines and challenges for testing scaled devices in relation to including response control mechanisms. Additionally, the results provide a basis for dictating future research on tuned liquid column damper based control on floating platforms.