Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

The protection and security of vulnerable populations in complex emergencies using the Dadaab refugee camps in the north eastern province of Kenya as a case study

The past two decades has seen a dramatic upheaval in the international world order: the end of the Cold War, the 9/11 attacks and the subsequent 'War on Terror', increased Jihadist activities, the accelerated pace of globalization, climate change and the 2008 global financial crisis have contributed to fear, uncertainty, poverty, conflict, massive displacements of populations of asylum seekers and refugees globally and a proliferation of Protracted Refugee Situations (PRS), defined as situations in which refugees have been in exile 'for 5 years or more after their initial displacement, without immediate prospects for implementation of durable solutions. In the past two decades there has been a huge proliferation of these with more than 7.2 million refugees now trapped in these PRS, with a further 16 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) trapped in camps within their own countries. The Dadaab refugee complex in Kenya, which of as March 2012, holds over 463,000 refugees, is the most significant and extreme example in recent times of a PRS. It was established in 1991 following the collapse of the Somali Government of Dictator Siad Barre, and the disintegration of Somalia into the chaos that still exists today. PRS such as Dadaab raise particular issues about humanitarianism in terms of aid, protection, security, human rights and the actions (or inaction) of the various stakeholders on an international, national and local level. This thesis investigates these issues by the use of a case study methodology on Dadaab as a PRS, framed in the context of humanitarianism and in particular the issues that arise in terms of how the international community, the UN system and individual states provide assistance and protection to vulnerable populations. Although the refugee camps have been in existence (as of 2012) for over 20 years, there has never been such a detailed study of Dadaab (or any other PRS) undertaken to date and would be of interest to academics in the areas of international relations, refugee/migration studies and global Governance as well as practitioners in both humanitarian response and development

Phase estimation receiver for full-field detection: a novel receiver structure for electronic dispersion compensation of metropolitan area networks

The development of ultra high speed (~20 Gsamples/s) analogue to digital converters (ADCs), and the delayed deployment of 40 Gbit/s transmission due to the economic downturn, has stimulated the investigation of digital signal processing (DSP) techniques for compensation of optical transmission impairments. In the future, DSP will offer an entire suite of tools to compensate for optical impairments and facilitate the use of advanced modulation formats. Chromatic dispersion is a very significant impairment for high speed optical transmission. This thesis investigates a novel electronic method of dispersion compensation which allows for cost-effective accurate detection of the amplitude and phase of the optical field into the radio frequency domain. The first electronic dispersion compensation (EDC) schemes accessed only the amplitude information using square law detection and achieved an increase in transmission distances. This thesis presents a method by using a frequency sensitive filter to estimate the phase of the received optical field and, in conjunction with the amplitude information, the entire field can be digitised using ADCs. This allows DSP technologies to take the next step in optical communications without requiring complex coherent detection. This is of particular of interest in metropolitan area networks. The full-field receiver investigated requires only an additional asymmetrical Mach-Zehnder interferometer and balanced photodiode to achieve a 50% increase in EDC reach compared to amplitude only detection.

Preparation and characterisation of ceria particles

Cerium dioxide (ceria) nanoparticles have been the subject of intense academic and industrial interest. Ceria has a host of applications but academic interest largely stems from their use in the modern automotive catalyst but it is also of interest because of many other application areas notably as the abrasive in chemical-mechanical planarisation of silicon substrates. Recently, ceria has been the focus of research investigating health effects of nanoparticles. Importantly, the role of non-stoichiometry in ceria nanoparticles is implicated in their biochemistry. Ceria has well understood non-stoichiometry based around the ease of formation of anion vacancies and these can form ordered superstructures based around the fluorite lattice structure exhibited by ceria. The anion vacancies are associated with localised or small polaron states formed by the electrons that remain after oxygen desorption. In simple terms these electrons combine with Ce4+ states to form Ce3+ states whose larger ionic radii is associated with a lattice expansion compared to stoichiometric CeO2. This is a very simplistic explanation and greater defect chemistry complexity is suggested by more recent work. Various authors have shown that vacancies are mobile and may result in vacancy clustering. Ceria nanoparticles are of particular interest because of the high activity and surface area of small particulates. The sensitivity of the cerium electronic band structure to environment would suggest that changes in the properties of ceria particles at nanoscale dimensions might be expected. Notably many authors report a lattice expansion with reducing particle size (largely confined to sub-10 nm particles). Most authors assign increased lattice dimensions to the presence of a surface stable Ce2O3 type layer at low nanoparticle dimensions. However, our understanding of oxide nanoparticles is limited and their full and quantitative characterisation offers serious challenges. In a series of chemical preparations by ourselves we see little evidence of a consistent model emerging to explain lattice parameter changes with nanoparticle size. Based on these results and a review of the literature it is worthwhile asking if a model of surface enhanced defect concentration is consistent with known cerium/cerium oxide chemistries, whether this is applicable to a range of different synthesis methods and if a more consistent description is possible. In Chapter one the science of cerium oxide is outlined including the crystal structure, defect chemistry and different oxidation states available. The uses and applications of cerium oxide are also discussed as well as modelling of the lattice parameter and the doping of the ceria lattice. Chapter two describes both the synthesis techniques and the analytical methods employed to execute this research. Chapter three focuses on high surface area ceria nano-particles and how these have been prepared using a citrate sol-gel precipitation method. Changes to the particle size have been made by calcining the ceria powders at different temperatures. X-ray diffraction methods were used to determine their lattice parameters. The particles sizes were also assessed using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and BET, and, the lattice parameter was found to decrease with decreasing particle size. The results are discussed in light of the role played by surface tension effects. Chapter four describes the morphological and structural characterization of crystalline CeO2 nanoparticles prepared by forward and reverse precipitation techniques and compares these by powder x-ray diffraction (PXRD), nitrogen adsorption (BET) and high resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) analysis. The two routes give quite different materials although in both cases the products are essentially highly crystalline, dense particulates. It was found that the reverse precipitation technique gave the smallest crystallites with the narrowest size dispersion. This route also gave as-synthesised materials with higher surface areas. HRTEM confirmed the observations made from PXRD data and showed that the two methods resulted in quite different morphologies and surface chemistries. The forward route gives products with significantly greater densities of Ce3+ species compared to the reverse route. Data are explained using known precipitation chemistry and kinetic effects. Chapter five centres on the addition of terbia to ceria and has been investigated using XRD, XRF, XPS and TEM. Good solid solutions were formed across the entire composition range and there was no evidence for the formation of mixed phases or surface segregation over either the composition or temperature range investigated. Both Tb3+ and Tb4+ ions exist within the solution and the ratios of these cations are consistent with the addition of Tb8O15 to the fluorite ceria structure across a wide range of compositions. Local regions of anion vacancy ordering may be visible for small crystallites. There is no evidence of significant Ce3+ ion concentrations formed at the surface or in the bulk by the addition of terbia. The lattice parameter of these materials was seen to decrease with decreasing crystallite size. This is consistent with increased surface tension effects at small dimension. Chapter six reviews size related lattice parameter changes and surface defects in ceria nanocrystals. Ceria (CeO2) has many important applications, notably in catalysis. Many of its uses rely on generating nanodimensioned particles. Ceria has important redox chemistry where Ce4+ cations can be reversibly reduced to Ce3+ cations and associated anion vacancies. The significantly larger size of Ce3+ (compared with Ce4+) has been shown to result in lattice expansion. Many authors have observed lattice expansion in nanodimensioned crystals (nanocrystals), and these have been attributed to the presence of stabilized Ce3+ -anion vacancy combinations in these systems. Experimental results presented here show (i) that significant, but complex changes in the lattice parameter with size can occur in 2-500 nm crystallites, (ii) that there is a definitive relationship between defect chemistry and the lattice parameter in ceria nanocrystals, and (iii) that the stabilizing mechanism for the Ce3+ -anion vacancy defects at the surface of ceria nanocrystals is determined by the size, the surface status, and the analysis conditions. In this work, both lattice expansion and a more unusual lattice contraction in ultrafine nanocrystals are observed. The lattice deformations seen can be defined as a function of both the anion vacancy (hydroxyl) concentration in the nanocrystal and the intensity of the additional pressure imposed by the surface tension on the crystal. The expansion of lattice parameters in ceria nanocrystals is attributed to a number of factors, most notably, the presence of any hydroxyl moieties in the materials. Thus, a very careful understanding of the synthesis combined with characterization is required to understand the surface chemistry of ceria nanocrystals.

Synthesis and reactivity of alpha-thio-beta-chloroacrylamides and alpha-thio-beta-chloroenones

Development of novel synthetic methodology for selective transformation of organic compounds is a central element underpinning organic synthesis with control of chemo-, regio- and stereoselectivity a very high priority. Reactions which can be conducted under mild reaction conditions and, ideally in an environmentally attractive manner, are particularly advantageous. The principal objective of this thesis was to explore the synthesis, reactivity and synthetic utility of a series of α,β-thio-β-chloroenones. The stereochemical features of these transformations and the potential of this novel series of compounds in the synthesis of bioactive compounds were of particular interest. In exploring the reactivity of these compounds, the key transformations included nucleophilic additions and Stille cross-coupling at the β-carbon. Chapter 1 reviews the literature relevant to the research conducted, and focuses in particular on the synthesis of β-chloroenones and related unsaturated carbonyl compounds. The synthesis of chalcone compounds from various precursors is also discussed, with particular emphasis on the use of palladium cross-coupling reactions in the preparation of these compounds. The biological activity of chalcones is also summarised in this chapter. The second chapter delineates the stereoselective synthesis of the novel α-thio-β-chloroenones from the corresponding α-thioketones in a multistep reaction cascade initiated by a NCS-mediated chlorination. A range of both alkyl and aryl β-chloroenones were prepared in this work and the oxidation of these compounds to the corresponding sulfoxides and sulfones is also outlined. The electrophilicity of the β-carbon of the enones was examined in nucleophilic addition/substitution reactions with successful access to a variety of synthetically useful novel adducts including acetals and enaminoketones. Investigation of the synthetic potential of the Stille cross-coupling reaction with the novel α-thio-β-chloroenones was explored and provided an efficient route for the synthesis of a novel series of chalcones. Most importantly this new methodology provided a new and synthetically powerful approach for carbon-carbon bond formation at the β-carbon under mild neutral conditions. A preliminary investigation into the use of these β-chloroenones as dienophiles in Diels-Alder cycloaddition reactions is also discussed in this chapter. Chapter 2 also reports the nucleophilic addition of N, O, S and C nucleophiles to previously described β-chloroacrylamides and their corresponding sulfoxide derivatives. This work builds on previous research carried out in this programme and the reactivity of these β-chloroacrylamides at the sulfide and sulfoxide level is compared. Comparison of the reactivity of the β-chloroacrylamides, in nucleophilic substitution and Stille-coupling, with that of the novel β-chloroenones is of interest. Finally, the biological activity of both the β-chloroenones and the β-chloroacrylamides in terms of cytotoxicity is summarised in Chapter 2. The final chapter, Chapter 3, details the full experimental procedures, including spectroscopic and analytical data for the compounds prepared during this research.

Elicitation techniques for the evaluation of speech under stress: Towards a framework for use in a controlled environment

Existing work in Computer Science and Electronic Engineering demonstrates that Digital Signal Processing techniques can effectively identify the presence of stress in the speech signal. These techniques use datasets containing real or actual stress samples i.e. real-life stress such as 911 calls and so on. Studies that use simulated or laboratory-induced stress have been less successful and inconsistent. Pervasive, ubiquitous computing is increasingly moving towards voice-activated and voice-controlled systems and devices. Speech recognition and speaker identification algorithms will have to improve and take emotional speech into account. Modelling the influence of stress on speech and voice is of interest to researchers from many different disciplines including security, telecommunications, psychology, speech science, forensics and Human Computer Interaction (HCI). The aim of this work is to assess the impact of moderate stress on the speech signal. In order to do this, a dataset of laboratory-induced stress is required. While attempting to build this dataset it became apparent that reliably inducing measurable stress in a controlled environment, when speech is a requirement, is a challenging task. This work focuses on the use of a variety of stressors to elicit a stress response during tasks that involve speech content. Biosignal analysis (commercial Brain Computer Interfaces, eye tracking and skin resistance) is used to verify and quantify the stress response, if any. This thesis explains the basis of the author’s hypotheses on the elicitation of affectively-toned speech and presents the results of several studies carried out throughout the PhD research period. These results show that the elicitation of stress, particularly the induction of affectively-toned speech, is not a simple matter and that many modulating factors influence the stress response process. A model is proposed to reflect the author’s hypothesis on the emotional response pathways relating to the elicitation of stress with a required speech content. Finally the author provides guidelines and recommendations for future research on speech under stress. Further research paths are identified and a roadmap for future research in this area is defined.

Survival analysis of adult tuberculosis disease

Background: We conducted a survival analysis of all the confirmed cases of Adult Tuberculosis (TB) patients treated in Cork-City, Ireland. The aim of this study was to estimate Survival time (ST), including median time of survival and to assess the association and impact of covariates (TB risk factors) to event status and ST. The outcome of the survival analysis is reported in this paper. Methods: We used a retrospective cohort study research design to review data of 647 bacteriologically confirmed TB patients from the medical record of two teaching hospitals. Mean age 49 years (Range 18–112). We collected information on potential risk factors of all confirmed cases of TB treated between 2008–2012. For the survival analysis, the outcome of interest was ‘treatment failure’ or ‘death’ (whichever came first). A univariate descriptive statistics analysis was conducted using a non- parametric procedure, Kaplan -Meier (KM) method to estimate overall survival (OS), while the Cox proportional hazard model was used for the multivariate analysis to determine possible association of predictor variables and to obtain adjusted hazard ratio. P value was set at <0.05, log likelihood ratio test at >0.10. Data were analysed using SPSS version 15.0. Results: There was no significant difference in the survival curves of male and female patients. (Log rank statistic = 0.194, df = 1, p = 0.66) and among different age group (Log rank statistic = 1.337, df = 3, p = 0.72). The mean overall survival (OS) was 209 days (95%CI: 92–346) while the median was 51 days (95% CI: 35.7–66). The mean ST for women was 385 days (95%CI: 76.6–694) and for men was 69 days (95%CI: 48.8–88.5). Multivariate Cox regression showed that patient who had history of drug misuse had 2.2 times hazard than those who do not have drug misuse. Smokers and alcohol drinkers had hazard of 1.8 while patients born in country of high endemicity (BICHE) had hazard of 6.3 and HIV co-infection hazard was 1.2. Conclusion: There was no significant difference in survival curves of male and female and among age group. Women had a higher ST compared to men. But men had a higher hazard rate compared to women. Anti-TNF, immunosuppressive medication and diabetes were found to be associated with longer ST, while alcohol, smoking, RICHE, BICHE was associated with shorter ST.

Problems with drawing lines: Theo-geographies of the Catholic parish in Ireland

While people in Catholic parishes in Ireland appear keenly aware of parish boundaries, these understandings are more often oral than cartographic. There is no digital map of all of the Catholic parishes in Ireland. However, the institutional Catholic Church insists that no square kilometre can exist outside of a parish boundary. In this paper, I explain a process whereby the Catholic parishes of Ireland were produced digitally. I will outline some of the technical challenges of digitizing such boundaries. In making these maps, it is not only a question of drawing lines but mapping people’s understanding of their locality. Through an example of one part of the digitisation project, I want to talk about how verifying maps with local people often complicates something which may have at first sight seemed simple. The paper ends on a comparison with how other communities of interest are territorialised in Ireland and elsewhere to draw out some broader theoretical and theological issues of concern.