Reasoning with imprecise trade-offs in decision making under certainty and uncertainty

In many real world situations, we make decisions in the presence of multiple, often conflicting and non-commensurate objectives. The process of optimizing systematically and simultaneously over a set of objective functions is known as multi-objective optimization. In multi-objective optimization, we have a (possibly exponentially large) set of decisions and each decision has a set of alternatives. Each alternative depends on the state of the world, and is evaluated with respect to a number of criteria. In this thesis, we consider the decision making problems in two scenarios. In the first scenario, the current state of the world, under which the decisions are to be made, is known in advance. In the second scenario, the current state of the world is unknown at the time of making decisions. For decision making under certainty, we consider the framework of multiobjective constraint optimization and focus on extending the algorithms to solve these models to the case where there are additional trade-offs. We focus especially on branch-and-bound algorithms that use a mini-buckets algorithm for generating the upper bound at each node of the search tree (in the context of maximizing values of objectives). Since the size of the guiding upper bound sets can become very large during the search, we introduce efficient methods for reducing these sets, yet still maintaining the upper bound property. We define a formalism for imprecise trade-offs, which allows the decision maker during the elicitation stage, to specify a preference for one multi-objective utility vector over another, and use such preferences to infer other preferences. The induced preference relation then is used to eliminate the dominated utility vectors during the computation. For testing the dominance between multi-objective utility vectors, we present three different approaches. The first is based on a linear programming approach, the second is by use of distance-based algorithm (which uses a measure of the distance between a point and a convex cone); the third approach makes use of a matrix multiplication, which results in much faster dominance checks with respect to the preference relation induced by the trade-offs. Furthermore, we show that our trade-offs approach, which is based on a preference inference technique, can also be given an alternative semantics based on the well known Multi-Attribute Utility Theory. Our comprehensive experimental results on common multi-objective constraint optimization benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed enhancements allow the algorithms to scale up to much larger problems than before. For decision making problems under uncertainty, we describe multi-objective influence diagrams, based on a set of p objectives, where utility values are vectors in Rp, and are typically only partially ordered. These can be solved by a variable elimination algorithm, leading to a set of maximal values of expected utility. If the Pareto ordering is used this set can often be prohibitively large. We consider approximate representations of the Pareto set based on ϵ-coverings, allowing much larger problems to be solved. In addition, we define a method for incorporating user trade-offs, which also greatly improves the efficiency.

Analysis of the failure of cracked biscuits

Cracks or checks in biscuits weaken the material and cause the product to break at low load levels that are perceived as injurious to product quality. In this work, the structural response of circular digestive biscuits, with diameter 72 mm and thickness 7.2 mm, simply supported around the circumference and loaded by a central concentrated force was investigated by experiment and theory. Tests were conducted to quantify the distribution in breakage strength for structurally sound biscuits, biscuits with natural checks and biscuits with a single known part-through crack. For sound biscuits the breakage force is Normally distributed with a mean of 12.5 N and standard deviation of 1.2 N. For biscuits with checks, the corresponding statistics are 9.6 N ± 2.62 N respectively. The presence of a crack weakens the biscuit and strength, as measured by breakage force falls almost linearly with crack length and crack depth. The orientation of the crack, whether radial or tangential, and its location (i.e. position of the crack mid-point on the biscuit surface) are also important. Deep, radial, cracks located close to the biscuit centre can reduce the strength by up to 50%. Two separate failure criteria were examined for sound and cracked biscuits respectively. The results from these tests were in good accord with theory. For a biscuit without defects, breakage occurred when maximum biscuit stress reached or exceeded the failure stress of 420 kPa. For a biscuit with cracks, breakage occurred as above or alternatively when its critical stress intensity factor of 18 kPam0.5 was reached.