4 resultados para Capacity Expansion
em CORA - Cork Open Research Archive - University College Cork - Ireland
Resumo:
The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.
Resumo:
In the European Union under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) milk production was restricted by milk quotas since 1984. However, due to recent changes in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), milk quotas will be abolished by 2015. Therefore, the European dairy sector will soon face an opportunity, for the first time in a generation, to expand. Numerous studies have shown that milk production in Ireland will increase significantly post quotas (Laepple and Hennessy (2010), Donnellan and Hennessy (2007) and Lips and Reider (2005)). The research in this thesis explored milk transport and dairy product processing in the Irish dairy processing sector in the context of milk quota removal and expansion by 2020. In this study a national milk transport model was developed for the Irish dairy industry, the model was used to examine different efficiency factors in milk transport and to estimate milk transport costs post milk quota abolition. Secondly, the impact of different milk supply profiles on milk transport costs was investigated using the milk transport model. Current processing capacity in Ireland was compared against future supply, it was concluded that additional milk processing capacity would not be sufficient to process the additional milk. Thirdly, the milk transport model was used to identify the least cost locations (based on transport costs) to process the additional milk supply in 2020. Finally, an optimisation model was developed to identify the optimum configuration for the Irish dairy processing sector in 2020 taking cognisance of increasing transport costs and decreasing processing costs.
Resumo:
The flower industry has a reputation for heavy usage of toxic chemicals and polluting the environment, enormous consumption of water, and poor working condition and low wage level in various parts of the world. It is unfortunate that this industry is adamant to change and repeating the same mistakes in Ethiopia. Because of this, - there is a growing concern among the general public and the international community about sustainability of the Ethiopian flower industry. Consequently, working conditions in the flower industry, impacts of wage income on the livelihoods of employees, coping strategies of low wage flower farm workers, impacts of flower farms on the livelihoods of local people and environmental pollution and conflict, were analysed. Both qualitative and quantitative research methods were employed. Four quantitative data sets: labour practice, employees’ income and expenditure, displaced household, and flower grower views survey were collected between 2010 and 2012. Robust regression to identify the determinants of wage levels, and Multinomial logit to identify the determinants of coping strategies of flower farm workers and displaced households were employed. The findings show the working conditions in flower farms are characterized by low wages, job insecurity and frequent violation of employees’ rights, and poor safety measures. To ensure survival of their family, land dispossessed households adopt a wide range of strategies including reduction in food consumption, sharing oxen, renting land, share cropping, and shifting staple food crops. Most experienced scarcity of water resources, lack of grazing areas, death of herds and reduced numbers of livestock due to water source pollution. Despite the Ethiopian government investment in attracting and creating conducive environment for investors, not much was accomplished when it comes to enforcing labour laws and environmental policies. Flower farm expansion in Ethiopia, as it is now, can be viewed as part of the global land and water grab and is not all inclusive and sustainable. Several recommendations are made to improve working conditions, maximize the benefits of flower industry to the society, and to the country at large.
Resumo:
By using Si(100) with different dopant type (n++-type (As) or p-type (B)), it is shown how metal-assisted chemically (MAC) etched silicon nanowires (Si NWs) can form with rough outer surfaces around a solid NW core for p-type NWs, and a unique, defined mesoporous structure for highly doped n-type NWs. High resolution electron microscopy techniques were used to define the characteristic roughening and mesoporous structure within the NWs and how such structures can form due to a judicious choice of carrier concentration and dopant type. Control of roughness and internal mesoporosity is demonstrated during the formation of Si NWs from highly doped n-type Si(100) during electroless etching through a systematic investigation of etching parameters (etching time, AgNO3 concentration, %HF and temperature). Raman scattering measurements of the transverse optical phonon confirm quantum size effects and phonon scattering in mesoporous wires associated with the etching condition, including quantum confinement effects for the nanocrystallites of Si comprising the internal structure of the mesoporous NWs. Laser power heating of NWs confirms phonon confinement and scattering from internal mesoporosity causing reduced thermal conductivity. The Li+ insertion and extraction characteristics at n-type and p-type Si(100) electrodes with different carrier density and doping type are investigated by cyclic voltammetry and constant current measurements. The insertion and extraction potentials are demonstrated to vary with cycling and the occurrence of an activation effect is shown in n-type electrodes where the charge capacity and voltammetric currents are found to be much higher than p-type electrodes. X-ray photo-electron spectroscopy (XPS) and Raman scattering demonstrate that highly doped n-type Si(100) retains Li as a silicide and converts to an amorphous phase as a two-step phase conversion process. The findings show the succinct dependence of Li insertion and extraction processes for uniformly doped Si(100) single crystals and how the doping type and its effect on the semiconductor-solution interface dominate Li insertion and extraction, composition, crystallinity changes and charge capacity. The effect of dopant, doping density and porosity of MAC etched Si NWs are investigated. The CV response is shown to change in area (current density) with increasing NW length and in profile shape with a changing porosity of the Si NWs. The CV response also changes with scan rate indicative of a transition from intercalation or alloying reactions, to pseudocapactive charge storage at higher scan rates and for p-type NWs. SEM and TEM show a change in structure of the NWs after Li insertion and extraction due to expansion and contraction of the Si NWs. Galvanostatic measurements show the cycling behavior and the Coulombic efficiency of the Si NWs in comparison to their bulk counterparts.