Testing for biases in selection on avian reproductive traits and partitioning direct and indirect selection using quantitative genetic models

Key life history traits such as breeding time and clutch size are frequently both heritable and under directional selection, yet many studies fail to document micro-evolutionary responses. One general explanation is that selection estimates are biased by the omission of correlated traits that have causal effects on fitness, but few valid tests of this exist. Here we show, using a quantitative genetic framework and six decades of life-history data on two free-living populations of great tits Parus major, that selection estimates for egg-laying date and clutch size are relatively unbiased. Predicted responses to selection based on the Robertson-Price Identity were similar to those based on the multivariate breeder’s equation, indicating that unmeasured covarying traits were not missing from the analysis. Changing patterns of phenotypic selection on these traits (for laying date, linked to climate change) therefore reflect changing selection on breeding values, and genetic constraints appear not to limit their independent evolution. Quantitative genetic analysis of correlational data from pedigreed populations can be a valuable complement to experimental approaches to help identify whether apparent associations between traits and fitness are biased by missing traits, and to parse the roles of direct versus indirect selection across a range of environments.

The ecology of the song thrush, Turdus philomelos Br., in Ireland

Over the last 30 years, western European Song Thrush populations have declined with the steepest decline recorded on British farmland. Changes in agricultural practices have been implicated in these population declines. Ireland is an agriculturally dominated landscape but changes in agriculture here have occurred on a relatively slower rate and scale. Little is known about the ecology of the Song Thrush in Ireland, even though it is not classified as a species of conservation concern here. Some decline is thought to have occurred but the current breeding population appears to be stable and widespread. In light of these facts, this study investigated various aspects of Song Thrush ecology in relation to the Irish landscape from 2001-2003. The breeding season extended from mid March to late June, where mean clutch size was 4.1 and number of fledglings was 3.7. There were very few third broods. Daily nest survival rates were calculated for egg stage 0.9362, incubation stage 0.9505 and nestling stage 0.6909. Most nest failures were due to avian predation at both egg and chick stages. Most nests were located 1.3 -2.4m from the ground at trees, bushes or hedgerow. Clutch size was significantly higher on farmland than garden & parkland and woodland, and the number of fledglings was significantly lower in nests in trees than hedgerow and bush sites. Daily nest fail rates were significantly higher at tree sites and partly concealed nests. Nesting areas had significantly denser vertical vegetation than non-nesting areas. Mercury and the organochlorine HEOD were the most common contaminants in Song Thrush eggs and livers. However concentrations and occurrence were low and of no apparent biological or ecological concern. The presence of breeding Song Thrushes was influenced by mixed surrounding farmland, the absence of grass surrounding farmland, ditches especially wet ones, tall dense vegetation and trimmed boundaries. Song Thrush winter densities were predicted by ditches, with wet or dry, low thin vegetation and untrimmed boundaries. Winter densities were almost double that of the breeding season, probably due to the arrival and passage of migrating Song Thrushes through the country, especially in November. Changes in Irish agriculture did not differ significantly in areas of Song Thrush breeding population stability and apparent decline during 1970 1990. Even though the current breeding population heavily uses farmland, woodland, human and scrub habitats are more preferred. Nevertheless no farmland habitat was avoided, highlighting a positive relationship between breeding Song Thrushes and Irish agriculture. This appears to be in contrast with findings between breeding Song Thrushes and British agriculture. Theses findings are compared with other studies and possible influences by agricultural intensification, climate, latitude and insular syndrome are discussed. Implications for conservation measures are considered, especially for areas of decline. Even though Song Thrushes are currently widespread and stable here, future environmental consequences of longer-term changes in Irish agriculture and perhaps climate change remain to be seen.