Investment incentives and valuation of power sector infrastructure assets with increasing interconnection, intermittency and decarbonisation

This dissertation applies a variety of quantitative methods to electricity and carbon market data, utility company accounts data, capital and operating costs to analyse some of the challenges associated with investment in energy assets. In particular, three distinct research topics are analysed within this general theme: the efficiency of interconnector trading, the optimal sizing of intermittent wind facilities and the impact of carbon pricing on the cost of capital for investors are researched in successive sections.

Financial modelling with 2-EPT probability density functions

The class of all Exponential-Polynomial-Trigonometric (EPT) functions is classical and equal to the Euler-d’Alembert class of solutions of linear differential equations with constant coefficients. The class of non-negative EPT functions defined on [0;1) was discussed in Hanzon and Holland (2010) of which EPT probability density functions are an important subclass. EPT functions can be represented as ceAxb, where A is a square matrix, b a column vector and c a row vector where the triple (A; b; c) is the minimal realization of the EPT function. The minimal triple is only unique up to a basis transformation. Here the class of 2-EPT probability density functions on R is defined and shown to be closed under a variety of operations. The class is also generalised to include mixtures with the pointmass at zero. This class coincides with the class of probability density functions with rational characteristic functions. It is illustrated that the Variance Gamma density is a 2-EPT density under a parameter restriction. A discrete 2-EPT process is a process which has stochastically independent 2-EPT random variables as increments. It is shown that the distribution of the minimum and maximum of such a process is an EPT density mixed with a pointmass at zero. The Laplace Transform of these distributions correspond to the discrete time Wiener-Hopf factors of the discrete time 2-EPT process. A distribution of daily log-returns, observed over the period 1931-2011 from a prominent US index, is approximated with a 2-EPT density function. Without the non-negativity condition, it is illustrated how this problem is transformed into a discrete time rational approximation problem. The rational approximation software RARL2 is used to carry out this approximation. The non-negativity constraint is then imposed via a convex optimisation procedure after the unconstrained approximation. Sufficient and necessary conditions are derived to characterise infinitely divisible EPT and 2-EPT functions. Infinitely divisible 2-EPT density functions generate 2-EPT Lévy processes. An assets log returns can be modelled as a 2-EPT Lévy process. Closed form pricing formulae are then derived for European Options with specific times to maturity. Formulae for discretely monitored Lookback Options and 2-Period Bermudan Options are also provided. Certain Greeks, including Delta and Gamma, of these options are also computed analytically. MATLAB scripts are provided for calculations involving 2-EPT functions. Numerical option pricing examples illustrate the effectiveness of the 2-EPT approach to financial modelling.

Reversal of impairment losses, firm performance and reporting incentives: Evidence from Malaysia

Malaysian Financial Reporting Standard (FRS) No. 136, Impairment of Assets, was issued in 2005. The standard requires public listed companies to report their non-current assets at no more than their recoverable amount. When the value of impaired assets is recovered, or partly recovered, FRS 136 requires the impairment charges to be reversed to its new recoverable amount. This study tests whether the reversal of impairment losses by Malaysian firms is more closely associated with economic reasons or reporting incentives. The sample of this study consists of 182 public companies listed on Bursa Malaysia (formerly known as the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange) that reported reversals of their impairment charges during the period 2006-2009. These firms are matched with firms which do not reverse impairment on the basis of industrial classification and size. In the year of reversal, this study finds that the reversal firms are more profitable (before reversals) than their matched firms. On average, the Malaysian stock market values the reversals of impairment losses positively. These results suggest that the reversals generally reflect increases in the value of the previously impaired assets. After partitioning firms that are likely to manage earnings and those that are not, this study finds that there are some Malaysian firms which reverse the impairment charges to manage earnings. Their reversals are not value-relevant, and are negatively associated with future firm performance. On the other hand, the reversals of firms which are deemed not to be earnings managers are positively associated with both future firm performance and current stock price performance, and this is the dominant motivation for the reversal of impairment charges in Malaysia. In further analysis, this study provides evidence that the opportunistic reversals are also associated with other earnings management manifestations, namely abnormal working capital accruals and the motivation to avoid earnings declines. In general, the findings suggest that the fair value measurement in impairment standard provides useful information to the users of financial statements.

The relationship between rural livelihoods and livestock keeping: the case of Sidama Zone, Southern Ethiopia

This study examines the relationship between rural livelihoods and livestock keeping in Sidama Zones, southern Ethiopia. The livelihood context, assets and strategies of households are the key features of rural livelihoods considered in the study; while households’ livestock ownership, dependence on livestock and livestock management are the main aspects of livestock keeping examined. The study used the sustainable livelihood approach as a framework for data collection and analysis. Describing the main features of rural livelihoods and livestock keeping, and the general pattern of relationship between them, this study mainly aims at identifying the main livelihood factors that determine livestock keeping in the study area. Descriptive statistics, pair wise correlations, mean comparisons and analysis of variance were used to describe rural livelihoods and livestock keeping as well as the relationship between them. Tobit regressions were used to examine the effect of the various livelihood factors on households’ livestock ownership and dependence; Poisson regressions are used to investigate the factors that influence the intensity of livestock management measured by the use of different technologies and inputs. The findings indicated that a number of livelihood factors - assets, livelihood strategies, livelihood shocks and institutional supports - significantly determine the different aspects of livestock keeping. These include: human assets such as age, education and family size; social assets such as membership to social groups; financial assets such as credit; natural assets such as land, and household physical assets; and livelihood strategies such as diversification into farm and nonfarm activities, and coping mechanisms. In addition the livelihood vulnerability context such as shocks and institutional support are among the main determinants of livestock keeping. The results, by and large, matched the findings of previous studies, and it is concluded that households livestock keeping depends on their livelihoods. Accordingly, it is recommended that policies aiming at livestock asset building and productivity improvement should take the livelihoods of rural households in to consideration. As such the study contribute to scholarly works in the area of rural livelihoods, in general, and livestock keeping, in particular. It also contributes to a better understanding of the problems of livestock keeping within the context of rural livelihoods in the country and to the formulation of appropriate policy for the development of the sector.