Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States.

Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland

Countries across the world are being challenged to decarbonise their energy systems in response to diminishing fossil fuel reserves, rising GHG emissions and the dangerous threat of climate change. There has been a renewed interest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon energy as policy‐makers seek to identify and put in place the most robust sustainable energy system that can address this challenge. This thesis seeks to improve the evidence base underpinning energy policy decisions in Ireland with a particular focus on natural gas, which in 2011 grew to have a 30% share of Ireland’s TPER. Natural gas is used in all sectors of the Irish economy and is seen by many as a transition fuel to a low-carbon energy system; it is also a uniquely excellent source of data for many aspects of energy consumption. A detailed decomposition analysis of natural gas consumption in the residential sector quantifies many of the structural drives of change, with activity (R2 = 0.97) and intensity (R2 = 0.69) being the best explainers of changing gas demand. The 2002 residential building regulations are subject to an ex-post evaluation, which using empirical data finds a 44 ±9.5% shortfall in expected energy savings as well as a 13±1.6% level of non-compliance. A detailed energy demand model of the entire Irish energy system is presented together with scenario analysis of a large number of energy efficiency policies, which show an aggregate reduction in TFC of 8.9% compared to a reference scenario. The role for natural gas as a transition fuel over a long time horizon (2005-2050) is analysed using an energy systems model and a decomposition analysis, which shows the contribution of fuel switching to natural gas to be worth 12 percentage points of an overall 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Finally, an analysis of the potential for CCS in Ireland finds gas CCS to be more robust than coal CCS for changes in fuel prices, capital costs and emissions reduction and the cost optimal location for a gas CCS plant in Ireland is found to be in Cork with sequestration in the depleted gas field of Kinsale.

Aerosol properties associated with air masses arriving into the North East Atlantic during the 2008 Mace Head EUCAARI intensive observing period: an overview

As part of the EUCAARI Intensive Observing Period, a 4-week campaign to measure aerosol physical, chemical and optical properties, atmospheric structure, and cloud microphysics was conducted from mid-May to mid-June, 2008 at the Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station, located at the interface of Western Europe and the N. E. Atlantic and centered on the west Irish coastline. During the campaign, continental air masses comprising both young and aged continental plumes were encountered, along with polar, Arctic and tropical air masses. Polluted-continental aerosol concentrations were of the order of 3000 cm(-3), while background marine air aerosol concentrations were between 400-600 cm(-3). The highest marine air concentrations occurred in polar air masses in which a 15 nm nucleation mode, with concentration of 1100 cm(-3), was observed and attributed to open ocean particle formation. Continental air submicron chemical composition (excluding refractory sea salt) was dominated by organic matter, closely followed by sulphate mass. Although the concentrations and size distribution spectral shape were almost identical for the young and aged continental cases, hygroscopic growth factors (GF) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) to total condensation nuclei (CN) concentration ratios were significantly less in the younger pollution plume, indicating a more oxidized organic component to the aged continental plume. The difference in chemical composition and hygroscopic growth factor appear to result in a 40-50% impact on aerosol scattering coefficients and Aerosol Optical Depth, despite almost identical aerosol microphysical properties in both cases, with the higher values been recorded for the more aged case. For the CCN/CN ratio, the highest ratios were seen in the more age plume. In marine air, sulphate mass dominated the sub-micron component, followed by water soluble organic carbon, which, in turn, was dominated by methanesulphonic acid (MSA). Sulphate concentrations were highest in marine tropical air - even higher than in continental air. MSA was present at twice the concentrations of previously-reported concentrations at the same location and the same season. Both continental and marine air exhibited aerosol GFs significantly less than ammonium sulphate aerosol pointing to a significant organic contribution to all air mass aerosol properties.

Pro-inflammatory flagellin proteins of prevalent motile commensal bacteria are variably abundant in the intestinal microbiome of elderly humans

Some Eubacterium and Roseburia species are among the most prevalent motile bacteria present in the intestinal microbiota of healthy adults. These flagellate species contribute "cell motility" category genes to the intestinal microbiome and flagellin proteins to the intestinal proteome. We reviewed and revised the annotation of motility genes in the genomes of six Eubacterium and Roseburia species that occur in the human intestinal microbiota and examined their respective locus organization by comparative genomics. Motility gene order was generally conserved across these loci. Five of these species harbored multiple genes for predicted flagellins. Flagellin proteins were isolated from R. inulinivorans strain A2-194 and from E. rectale strains A1-86 and M104/1. The amino-termini sequences of the R. inulinivorans and E. rectale A1-86 proteins were almost identical. These protein preparations stimulated secretion of interleukin-8 (IL-8) from human intestinal epithelial cell lines, suggesting that these flagellins were pro-inflammatory. Flagellins from the other four species were predicted to be pro-inflammatory on the basis of alignment to the consensus sequence of pro-inflammatory flagellins from the beta- and gamma-proteobacteria. Many fliC genes were deduced to be under the control of sigma(28). The relative abundance of the target Eubacterium and Roseburia species varied across shotgun metagenomes from 27 elderly individuals. Genes involved in the flagellum biogenesis pathways of these species were variably abundant in these metagenomes, suggesting that the current depth of coverage used for metagenomic sequencing (3.13-4.79 Gb total sequence in our study) insufficiently captures the functional diversity of genomes present at low (<= 1%) relative abundance. E. rectale and R. inulinivorans thus appear to synthesize complex flagella composed of flagellin proteins that stimulate IL-8 production. A greater depth of sequencing, improved evenness of sequencing and improved metagenome assembly from short reads will be required to facilitate in silico analyses of complete complex biochemical pathways for low-abundance target species from shotgun metagenomes.

Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

The development of a computer model to optimize the performance of a 50kWp photovoltaic system

A computer model has been developed to optimize the performance of a 50kWp photovoltaic system which supplies electrical energy to a dairy farm at Fota Island in Cork Harbour. Optimization of the system involves maximising the efficiency and increasing the performance and reliability of each hardware unit. The model accepts horizontal insolation, ambient temperature, wind speed, wind direction and load demand as inputs. An optimization program uses the computer model to simulate the optimum operating conditions. From this analysis, criteria are established which are used to improve the photovoltaic system operation. This thesis describes the model concepts, the model implementation and the model verification procedures used during development. It also describes the techniques which are used during system optimization. The software, which is written in FORTRAN, is structured in modular units to provide logical and efficient programming. These modular units may also be used in the modelling and optimization of other photovoltaic systems.

Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

Novel ingredients from brewers' spent grain - bioactivity in cell culture model systems and bioactivity retention in fortified food products

Functional food ingredients, with scientifically proven and validated bioactive effects, present an effective means of inferring physiological health benefits to consumers to reduce the risk of certain diseases. The search for novel bioactive compounds for incorporation into functional foods is particularly active, with brewers’ spent grain (BSG, a brewing industry co-product) representing a unique source of potentially bioactive compounds. The DNA protective, antioxidant and immunomodulatory effects of phenolic extracts from both pale (P1 - P4) and black (B1 – B4) BSG were examined. Black BSG extracts significantly (P < 0.05) protected against DNA damage induced by hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) and extracts with the highest total phenolic content (TPC) protected against 3-morpholinosydnonimine hydrochloride (SIN-1)-induced oxidative DNA damage, measured by the comet assay. Cellular antioxidant activity assays were used to measured antioxidant potential in the U937 cell line. Extracts P1 – P3 and B2 - B4 demonstrated significant (P < 0.05) antioxidant activity, measured by the superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity, catalase (CAT) activity and gluatathione (GSH) content assays. Phenolic extracts P2 and P3 from pale BSG possess anti-inflammatory activity measured in concanavalin-A (conA) stimulated Jurkat T cells by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA); significantly (P < 0.05) reducing production of interleukin-2 (IL-2), interleukin-4 (IL-4, P2 only), interleukin-10 (IL-10) and interferon-γ (IFN-γ). Black BSG phenolic extracts did not exhibit anti-inflammatory effects in vitro. Hydroxycinnamic acids (HA) have previously been shown to be the phenolic acids present at highest concentration in BSG; therefore the HA profile of the phenolic extracts used in this research, the original barley (before brewing) and whole BSG was characterised and quantified using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The concentration of HA present in the samples was in the order of ferulic acid (FA) > p-coumaric acid (p-CA) derivatives > FA derivatives > p-CA > caffeic acid (CA) > CA derivatives. Results suggested that brewing and roasting decreased the HA content. Protein hydrolysates from BSG were also screened for their antioxidant and anti-inflammatory potential. A total of 34 BSG protein samples were tested. Initial analyses of samples A – J found the protein samples did not exert DNA protective effects (except hydrolysate H) or antioxidant effects by the comet and SOD assays, respectively. Samples D, E, F and J selectively reduced IFN-γ production (P < 0.05) in Jurkat T cells, measured using enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Further testing of hydrolysates K – W, including fractionated hydrolysates with molecular weight < 3, < 5 and > 5 kDa, found that higher molecular weight (> 5 kDa) and unfractionated hydrolysates demonstrate greatest anti-inflammatory effects, while fractionated hydrolysates were also shown to have antioxidant activity, by the SOD activity assay. A commercially available yogurt drink (Actimel) and snack-bar and chocolate-drink formulations were fortified with the most bioactive phenolic and protein samples – P2, B2, W, W < 3 kDa, W < 5 kDa, W > 5 kDa. All fortified foods were subjected to a simulated gastrointestinal in vitro digestion procedure and bioactivity retention in the digestates was determined using the comet and ELISA assays. Yogurt fortified with B2 digestate significantly (P < 0.05) protected against H2O2-induced DNA damage in Caco-2 cells. Greatest immunomodulatory activity was demonstrated by the snack-bar formulation, significantly (P < 0.05) reducing IFN-γ production in con-A stimulated Jurkat T cells. Hydrolysate W significantly (P < 0.05) increased the IFN-γ reducing capacity of the snack-bar. Addition of fractionated hydrolysate W < 3 kDa and W < 5 kDa to yogurt also reduced IL-2 production to a greater extent than the unfortified yogurt (P < 0.05).

MyRoom: A user-centred model of affective responsive architecture

Can my immediate physical environment affect how I feel? The instinctive answer to this question must be a resounding “yes”. What might seem a throwaway remark is increasingly borne out by research in environmental and behavioural psychology, and in the more recent discipline of Evidence-Based Design. Research outcomes are beginning to converge with findings in neuroscience and neurophysiology, as we discover more about how the human brain and body functions, and reacts to environmental stimuli. What we see, hear, touch, and sense affects each of us psychologically and, by extension, physically, on a continual basis. The physical characteristics of our daily environment thus have the capacity to profoundly affect all aspects of our functioning, from biological systems to cognitive ability. This has long been understood on an intuitive basis, and utilised on a more conscious basis by architects and other designers. Recent research in evidence-based design, coupled with advances in neurophysiology, confirm what have been previously held as commonalities, but also illuminate an almost frightening potential to do enormous good, or alternatively, terrible harm, by virtue of how we make our everyday surroundings. The thesis adopts a design methodology in its approach to exploring the potential use of wireless sensor networks in environments for elderly people. Vitruvian principles of “commodity, firmness and delight” inform the research process and become embedded in the final design proposals and research conclusions. The issue of person-environment fit becomes a key principle in describing a model of continuously-evolving responsive architecture which makes the individual user its focus, with the intention of promoting wellbeing. The key research questions are: What are the key system characteristics of an adaptive therapeutic single-room environment? How can embedded technologies be utilised to maximise the adaptive and therapeutic aspects of the personal life-space of an elderly person with dementia?.

The reliability mathematical model of load-sharing parallel systems based on fatigue cumulative damage

Conventional reliability models for parallel systems are not applicable for the analysis of parallel systems with load transfer and sharing. In this short communication, firstly, the dependent failures of parallel systems are analyzed, and the reliability model of load-sharing parallel system is presented based on Miner cumulative damage theory and the full probability formula. Secondly, the parallel system reliability is calculated by Monte Carlo simulation when the component life follows the Weibull distribution. The research result shows that the proposed reliability mathematical model could analyze and evaluate the reliability of parallel systems in the presence of load transfer.