Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw

Over the past decades, vegetation and climate have changed significantly in the Arctic. Deciduous shrub cover is often assumed to expand in tundra landscapes, but more frequent abrupt permafrost thaw resulting in formation of thaw ponds could lead to vegetation shifts towards graminoid-dominated wetland. Which factors drive vegetation changes in the tundra ecosystem are still not sufficiently clear. In this study, the dynamic tundra vegetation model, NUCOM-tundra (NUtrient and COMpetition), was used to evaluate the consequences of climate change scenarios of warming and increasing precipitation for future tundra vegetation change. The model includes three plant functional types (moss, graminoids and shrubs), carbon and nitrogen cycling, water and permafrost dynamics and a simple thaw pond module. Climate scenario simulations were performed for 16 combinations of temperature and precipitation increases in five vegetation types representing a gradient from dry shrub-dominated to moist mixed and wet graminoid-dominated sites. Vegetation composition dynamics in currently mixed vegetation sites were dependent on both temperature and precipitation changes, with warming favouring shrub dominance and increased precipitation favouring graminoid abundance. Climate change simulations based on greenhouse gas emission scenarios in which temperature and precipitation increases were combined showed increases in biomass of both graminoids and shrubs, with graminoids increasing in abundance. The simulations suggest that shrub growth can be limited by very wet soil conditions and low nutrient supply, whereas graminoids have the advantage of being able to grow in a wide range of soil moisture conditions and have access to nutrients in deeper soil layers. Abrupt permafrost thaw initiating thaw pond formation led to complete domination of graminoids. However, due to increased drainage, shrubs could profit from such changes in adjacent areas. Both climate and thaw pond formation simulations suggest that a wetter tundra can be responsible for local shrub decline instead of shrub expansion.

The ecology of the song thrush, Turdus philomelos Br., in Ireland

Over the last 30 years, western European Song Thrush populations have declined with the steepest decline recorded on British farmland. Changes in agricultural practices have been implicated in these population declines. Ireland is an agriculturally dominated landscape but changes in agriculture here have occurred on a relatively slower rate and scale. Little is known about the ecology of the Song Thrush in Ireland, even though it is not classified as a species of conservation concern here. Some decline is thought to have occurred but the current breeding population appears to be stable and widespread. In light of these facts, this study investigated various aspects of Song Thrush ecology in relation to the Irish landscape from 2001-2003. The breeding season extended from mid March to late June, where mean clutch size was 4.1 and number of fledglings was 3.7. There were very few third broods. Daily nest survival rates were calculated for egg stage 0.9362, incubation stage 0.9505 and nestling stage 0.6909. Most nest failures were due to avian predation at both egg and chick stages. Most nests were located 1.3 -2.4m from the ground at trees, bushes or hedgerow. Clutch size was significantly higher on farmland than garden & parkland and woodland, and the number of fledglings was significantly lower in nests in trees than hedgerow and bush sites. Daily nest fail rates were significantly higher at tree sites and partly concealed nests. Nesting areas had significantly denser vertical vegetation than non-nesting areas. Mercury and the organochlorine HEOD were the most common contaminants in Song Thrush eggs and livers. However concentrations and occurrence were low and of no apparent biological or ecological concern. The presence of breeding Song Thrushes was influenced by mixed surrounding farmland, the absence of grass surrounding farmland, ditches especially wet ones, tall dense vegetation and trimmed boundaries. Song Thrush winter densities were predicted by ditches, with wet or dry, low thin vegetation and untrimmed boundaries. Winter densities were almost double that of the breeding season, probably due to the arrival and passage of migrating Song Thrushes through the country, especially in November. Changes in Irish agriculture did not differ significantly in areas of Song Thrush breeding population stability and apparent decline during 1970 1990. Even though the current breeding population heavily uses farmland, woodland, human and scrub habitats are more preferred. Nevertheless no farmland habitat was avoided, highlighting a positive relationship between breeding Song Thrushes and Irish agriculture. This appears to be in contrast with findings between breeding Song Thrushes and British agriculture. Theses findings are compared with other studies and possible influences by agricultural intensification, climate, latitude and insular syndrome are discussed. Implications for conservation measures are considered, especially for areas of decline. Even though Song Thrushes are currently widespread and stable here, future environmental consequences of longer-term changes in Irish agriculture and perhaps climate change remain to be seen.

The impact of conifer plantation forestry on the ecology of peatland lakes

Blanket bog lakes are a characteristic feature of blanket bog habitats and harbour many rare and threatened invertebrate species. Despite their potential conservation value, however, very little is known about their physico-chemical or biological characteristics in western Europe, and their reference conditions are still unknown in Ireland. Furthermore, they are under considerable threat in Ireland from a number of sources, particularly afforestation of their catchments by exotic conifers. Plantation forestry can potentially lead to the increased input of substances including hydrogen ions (H+), plants nutrients, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), heavy metals and sediment. The aims of this study were to investigate the effect of conifer plantation forestry on the hydrochemistry and ecology of blanket bog lakes in western Ireland. Lake hydrochemistry, littoral Chydoridae (Cladocera) and littoral macroinvertebrate communities were compared among replicate lakes selected from three distinct catchment land use categories: i) unplanted blanket bog only present in the catchment, ii) mature (closed-canopy) conifer plantation forests only present in the catchment and iii) catchments containing mature conifer plantation forests with recently clearfelled areas. All three catchment land uses were replicated across two geologies: sandstone and granite. Lakes with afforested catchments across both geologies had elevated concentrations of phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N), total dissolved organic carbon (TDOC), aluminium (Al) and iron (Fe), with the highest concentrations of each parameter recorded from lakes with catchment clearfelling. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were also significantly reduced in the afforested lakes, particularly the clearfell lakes. This change in lake hydrochemistry was associated with profound changes in lake invertebrate communities. Within the chydorid communities, the dominance of Alonopsis elongata in the unplanted blanket bog lakes shifted to dominance by the smaller bodied Chydorus sphaericus, along with Alonella nana, Alonella excisa and Alonella exigua, in the plantation forestry-affected lakes, consistent with a shift in lake trophy. Similarly, there was marked changes in the macroinvertebrate communities, especially for the Coleoptera and Heteroptera assemblages which revealed increased taxon richness and abundance in the nutrient-enriched lakes. In terms of conservation status, despite having the greatest species-quality scores (SQS) and species richness, three of the four International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) red-listed species of Coleoptera and Odonata recorded during the study were absent from lakes subject to catchment clearfelling. The relative strengths of bottom-up (forestry-mediated nutrient enrichment) and top-down (fish) forces in structuring littoral macroinvertebrate communities was investigated in a separate study. Nutrient enrichment was shown to be the dominant force acting on communities, with fish having a lesser influence. These results confirmed that plantation forestry poses the single greatest threat to the conservation status of blanket bog lakes in western Ireland. The findings of this study have major implications for the management of afforested peatlands. Further research is required on blanket bog lakes to prevent any further plantation forestry-mediated habitat deterioration of this rare and protected habitat.