Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Exploring alternatives for milk quality improvement and more efficient dairy production in a smallholder farming context – case study: Mantaro Valley (Peru)

Consumer demand is revolutionizing the way products are being produced, distributed and marketed. In relation to the dairy sector in developing countries, aspects of milk quality are receiving more attention from both society and the government. However, milk quality management needs to be better addressed in dairy production systems to guarantee the access of stakeholders, mainly small-holders, into dairy markets. The present study is focused on an analysis of the interaction of the upstream part of the dairy supply chain (farmers and dairies) in the Mantaro Valley (Peruvian central Andes), in order to understand possible constraints both stakeholders face implementing milk quality controls and practices; and evaluate “ex-ante” how different strategies suggested to improve milk quality could affect farmers and processors’ profits. The analysis is based on three complementary field studies conducted between 2012 and 2013. Our work has shown that the presence of a dual supply chain combining both formal and informal markets has a direct impact on dairy production at the technical and organizational levels, affecting small formal dairy processors’ possibilities to implement contracts, including agreements on milk quality standards. The analysis of milk quality management from farms to dairy plants highlighted the poor hygiene in the study area, even when average values of milk composition were usually high. Some husbandry practices evaluated at farm level demonstrated cost effectiveness and a big impact on hygienic quality; however, regular application of these practices was limited, since small-scale farmers do not receive a bonus for producing hygienic milk. On the basis of these two results, we co-designed with formal small-scale dairy processors a simulation tool to show prospective scenarios, in which they could select their best product portfolio but also design milk payment systems to reward farmers’ with high milk quality performances. This type of approach allowed dairy processors to realize the importance of including milk quality management in their collection and manufacturing processes, especially in a context of high competition for milk supply. We concluded that the improvement of milk quality in a smallholder farming context requires a more coordinated effort among stakeholders. Successful implementation of strategies will depend on the willingness of small-scale dairy processors to reward farmers producing high milk quality; but also on the support from the State to provide incentives to the stakeholders in the formal sector.

The defining characteristics of alternative food initiatives in Ireland: a social movement battling for an alternative food future?

Alternative food initiatives (AFIs) have been described as an attempt to change and improve aspects of how the food system operates. They are focused around more traditional, local and sustainable food production and circulation. AFIs such as farmers’ markets, allotments and community gardens, share a desire to reduce the number of steps food goes through from production to plate. The role of these initiatives in the food system, and their potential to impact real change, has however been questioned. Working to better understand this issue is a central concern of this research. To do this a two tier analysis has been deployed. The first tier involves identifying the characteristics and general dynamics of AFIs. Bourdieu’s theory of practice, and the theories of field and capital, are the concepts applied. The research then uses these findings in the second tier of analysis concerned with relating AFI characteristics and dynamics back to their key traits, positive and negative, as well as arguments made about AFI’s role identified from previous research. Another part of this second tier of analysis is exploring if AFIs, the producers, consumers, organisations and groups that make up this phenomenon, can be considered a social movement. AFIs can be referred to collectively as a social movement, but are not often explored theoretically from this perspective. AFIs in Ireland provide the empirical context for this research. A series of qualitative interviews in four areas of Ireland, as well as evidence from primary and secondary sources are analysed. The research finds that AFIs can be understood as the potential beginnings of a lifestyle social movement. Leaders are of central importance to its development. It is also found that an important role of AFIs is revitalising, supporting and contributing to food culture.