Predicting 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany: an update based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.

An evaluation of the implications of the best interests of the child principle in the context of same-sex parenting in Ireland

Same-sex parenting is by no means a new phenomenon but the legal recognition and acceptance of gay and lesbian couples as parents is a relatively recent development in most countries. Traditionally, such recognition has been opposed on the basis of the claim that the best interests of children could not be met by gay and lesbian parents. This thesis examines the validity of this argument and it explores the true implications of the best interests principle in this context. The objective is to move away from subjective or moral conceptions of the best interests principle to an understanding which is informed by relevant sociological and psychological data and which is guided by reference to the rights contained in the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child. Using this perspective, the thesis addresses the overarching issue of whether the law should offer legal recognition and protection to gay and lesbian families and the more discrete matter of how legal protection should be provided. It is argued that the best interests principle can be used to demand that same-sex parenting arrangements should be afforded legal recognition and protection. Suggestions are also presented as to the most appropriate manner of providing for this recognition. In this regard, guidance is drawn from the English and South African experience in this area. Overall, the objective is to assess the current laws from the perspective of the best interests principle so as to ensure that the law operates in a manner which adheres to the rights and interests of children.