Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

National food consumption surveys: micronutrient intakes and the role of fortified foods in the diets of Irish pre-school children and adults

This research investigated the micronutrient intakes of Irish pre-school children (1-4 years) and adults (18-64 years) and the role that fortified foods (FFs) play in the diets of these population groups. Dietary intake data were collected as part of the National Pre-school Nutrition Survey (NPNS) (2010-2011) and the National Adult Nutrition Survey (NANS) (2008-2010) using 4-day food and beverage records. Nutrient intakes were estimated using WISP©, which encompasses McCance and Widdowson’s The Composition of Foods and the Irish Food Composition Database. A FF is one in which one or more micronutrients are added. Key dietary sources of micronutrients in NPNS and NANS were “milk”, “meat & meat products”, “breakfast cereals”, “fruit & fruit juices” and “breads”. In general, intakes of most micronutrients were adequate with the exception of iron (1 year old children and adult women) and vitamin D (in all population groups). Small proportions of the pre-school population had intakes which exceeded the upper level (UL) (zinc: 11%, folic acid: 5%, retinol: 4%, copper: 2%). Less than 2% of adults had intakes of iron, copper, zinc and vitamin B6 which exceeded the UL. FFs were consumed by 97% of pre-school children and 82% of adults, representing 17% and 9% of mean daily energy intake respectively. Relative to energy intake, FFs contributed substantially greater proportions to intakes of key micronutrients, such as iron and vitamin D. FFs were effective in reducing the prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intakes in these population groups, particularly for iron in women and 1 year old children. FFs made a significant contribution to folate intake in women of childbearing age (72µg). FFs contributed greater proportions of carbohydrate and lower proportions of fat to the diets of consumers. Voluntary addition of nutrients to foods did not contribute appreciably to intakes exceeding the UL in these population groups.

Assessment of dietary background exposure of the Irish adult population to dioxins and PCBs particularly taking into account additional exposure due to the 2008 Irish dioxin food contamination incident

Irish monitoring data on PCDD/Fs, DL-PCBs and Marker PCBs were collated and combined with Irish Adult Food Consumption Data, to estimate dietary background exposure of Irish adults to dioxins and PCBs. Furthermore, all available information on the 2008 Irish pork dioxin food contamination incident was collated and analysed with a view to evaluate any potential impact the incident may have had on general dioxin and PCB background exposure levels estimated for the adult population in Ireland. The average upperbound daily intake of Irish adults to dioxins Total WHO TEQ (2005) (PCDD/Fs & DLPCBs) from environmental background contamination, was estimated at 0.3 pg/kg bw/d and at the 95th percentile at 1 pg/kg bw/d. The average upperbound daily intake of Irish adults to the sum of 6 Marker PCBs from environmental background contamination ubiquitous in the environment was estimated at 1.6 ng/kg bw/d and at the 95th percentile at 6.8 ng/kg bw/d. Dietary background exposure estimates for both dioxins and PCBs indicate that the Irish adult population has exposures below the European average, a finding which is also supported by the levels detected in breast milk of Irish mothers. Exposure levels are below health based guidance values and/or Body Burdens associated with the TWI (for dioxins) or associated with a NOAEL (for PCBs). Given the current toxicological knowledge, based on biomarker data and estimated dietary exposure, general background exposure of the Irish adult population to dioxins and PCBs is of no human health concern. In 2008, a porcine fat sample taken as part of the national residues monitoring programme led to the detection of a major feed contamination incidence in the Republic of Ireland. The source of the contamination was traced back to the use of contaminated oil in a direct-drying feed operation system. Congener profiles in animal fat and feed samples showed a high level of consistency and pinpointed the likely source of fuel contamination to be a highly chlorinated commercial PCB mixture. To estimate additional exposure to dioxins and PCBs due to the contamination of pig and cattle herds, collection and a systematic review of all data associated with the contamination incident was conducted. A model was devised that took into account the proportion of contaminated product reaching the final consumer during the 90 day contamination incident window. For a 90 day period, the total additional exposure to Total TEQ (PCDD/F &DL-PCB) WHO (2005) amounted to 407 pg/kg bw/90d at the 95th percentile and 1911 pg/kg bw/90d at the 99th percentile. Exposure estimates derived for both dioxins and PCBs showed that the Body Burden of the general population remained largely unaffected by the contamination incident and approximately 10 % of the adult population in Ireland was exposed to elevated levels of dioxins and PCBs. Whilst people in this 10 % cohort experienced quite a significant additional load to the existing body burden, the estimated exposure values do not indicate approximation of body burdens associated with adverse health effects, based on current knowledge. The exposure period was also limited in time to approximately 3 months, following the FSAI recall of contaminated meat immediately on detection of the contamination. A follow up breast milk study on Irish first time mothers conducted in 2009/2010 did not show any increase in concentrations compared to the study conducted in 2002. The latter supports the conclusion that the majority of the Irish adult population was not affected by the contamination incident.

The importance of interaction strength for food web dynamics and ecosystem functioning

Global biodiversity is eroding at an alarming rate, through a combination of anthropogenic disturbance and environmental change. Ecological communities are bewildering in their complexity. Experimental ecologists strive to understand the mechanisms that drive the stability and structure of these complex communities in a bid to inform nature conservation and management. Two fields of research have had high profile success at developing theories related to these stabilising structures and testing them through controlled experimentation. Biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) research has explored the likely consequences of biodiversity loss on the functioning of natural systems and the provision of important ecosystem services. Empirical tests of BEF theory often consist of simplified laboratory and field experiments, carried out on subsets of ecological communities. Such experiments often overlook key information relating to patterns of interactions, important relationships, and fundamental ecosystem properties. The study of multi-species predator-prey interactions has also contributed much to our understanding of how complex systems are structured, particularly through the importance of indirect effects and predator suppression of prey populations. A growing number of studies describe these complex interactions in detailed food webs, which encompass all the interactions in a community. This has led to recent calls for an integration of BEF research with the comprehensive study of food web properties and patterns, to help elucidate the mechanisms that allow complex communities to persist in nature. This thesis adopts such an approach, through experimentation at Lough Hyne marine reserve, in southwest Ireland. Complex communities were allowed to develop naturally in exclusion cages, with only the diversity of top trophic levels controlled. Species removals were carried out and the resulting changes to predator-prey interactions, ecosystem functioning, food web properties, and stability were studied in detail. The findings of these experiments contribute greatly to our understanding of the stability and structure of complex natural communities.

Mathematical modelling and optimisation of the formulation and manufacture of aggregate food products

In this PhD study, mathematical modelling and optimisation of granola production has been carried out. Granola is an aggregated food product used in breakfast cereals and cereal bars. It is a baked crispy food product typically incorporating oats, other cereals and nuts bound together with a binder, such as honey, water and oil, to form a structured unit aggregate. In this work, the design and operation of two parallel processes to produce aggregate granola products were incorporated: i) a high shear mixing granulation stage (in a designated granulator) followed by drying/toasting in an oven. ii) a continuous fluidised bed followed by drying/toasting in an oven. In addition, the particle breakage of granola during pneumatic conveying produced by both a high shear granulator (HSG) and fluidised bed granulator (FBG) process were examined. Products were pneumatically conveyed in a purpose built conveying rig designed to mimic product conveying and packaging. Three different conveying rig configurations were employed; a straight pipe, a rig consisting two 45° bends and one with 90° bend. It was observed that the least amount of breakage occurred in the straight pipe while the most breakage occurred at 90° bend pipe. Moreover, lower levels of breakage were observed in two 45° bend pipe than the 90° bend vi pipe configuration. In general, increasing the impact angle increases the degree of breakage. Additionally for the granules produced in the HSG, those produced at 300 rpm have the lowest breakage rates while the granules produced at 150 rpm have the highest breakage rates. This effect clearly the importance of shear history (during granule production) on breakage rates during subsequent processing. In terms of the FBG there was no single operating parameter that was deemed to have a significant effect on breakage during subsequent conveying. A population balance model was developed to analyse the particle breakage occurring during pneumatic conveying. The population balance equations that govern this breakage process are solved using discretization. The Markov chain method was used for the solution of PBEs for this process. This study found that increasing the air velocity (by increasing the air pressure to the rig), results in increased breakage among granola aggregates. Furthermore, the analysis carried out in this work provides that a greater degree of breakage of granola aggregates occur in line with an increase in bend angle.

Early nutrition and eczema in infancy

Eczema prevalence rates among Irish infants are unreported, despite eczema being the most common inflammatory condition of infancy. Maternal and infant nutritional status including vitamin D and other fat-soluble vitamins as well as early infant feeding have been linked with eczema initiation and development. Therefore, early nutrition could be a potential modifiable risk factor. The objective of this thesis was to prospectively describe early infant feeding and complementary feeding practices, to evaluate infant vitamin D supplementation practice, to quantify cord serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and propose reference intervals for vitamin D metabolites, to report eczema prevalence and explore the potential role of infant nutrition and eczema. These research needs were investigated through the Cork BASELINE (Babies After SCOPE: Evaluating the Longitudinal Impact with Neurological and Nutritional Endpoints) Birth Cohort Study (n 2137). This thesis was the first comprehensive report from the birth cohort, therefore it was important to describe the cohort sociodemographic profile. Although socio-demographic characteristics compared well with national data, there was an over-representation of educated mothers which may limit the generalizability of the results. From August 2008 through November 2011, comprehensive postnatal assessments were completed at day 2 and at 2, 6, 12 and 24 months. Breastfeeding rates were low, while complementary feeding practices were broadly compliant with national guidelines. The implementation of a national infant vitamin D supplementation policy had a major impact on supplementation practice. Low levels of serum 25(OH)D were universal among Irish neonates. Eczema is a complex and multifaceted disease, which is increasing globally. This was the first report of eczema prevalence data among Irish infants which compared with international reports. Given the high prevalence and considerable burden eczema has on the lives of sufferers, intensive research efforts to identify a cause and therapeutic strategies to prevent/reduce eczema was re-emphasized in this thesis.

State building as strategy: An interrogation of NATO's comprehensive approach in Afghanistan between 2006 and 2011

The core of this thesis is the study of NATO’s Comprehensive Approach strategy to state building in Afghanistan between 2006 and 2011. It argues that this strategy sustained operational and tactical practices which were ineffective in responding to the evolved nature of the security problem. The thesis interrogates the Comprehensive Approach along ontological, empirical and epistemological lines and concludes that the failure of the Comprehensive Approach in the specific Afghan case is, in fact, indicative of underlying theoretical and pragmatic flaws which, therefore, generalize the dilemma. The research is pragmatic in nature, employing mixed methods (quantitative and qualitative) concurrently. Qualitative methods include research into primary and secondary literature sources supplemented with the author’s personal experiences in Afghanistan in 2008 and various NATO HQ and Canadian settings. Quantitative research includes an empirical case study focussing on NATO’s Afghan experience and its attempt at state building between 2006 and 2011. This study incorporates a historical review of NATO’s evolutionary involvement in Afghanistan incorporating the subject timeframe; offers an analysis of human development and governance related data mapped to expected outcomes of the Afghan National Development Strategy and NATO’s comprehensive campaign design; and interrogates the Comprehensive Approach strategy by means of an analysis of conceptual, institutional and capability gaps in the context of an integrated investigational framework. The results of the case study leads to an investigation of a series of research questions related to the potential impact of the failure of the Comprehensive Approach for NATO in Afghanistan and the limits of state building as a means of attaining security for the Alliance.

Novel structured emulsions for delivering of food flavours

Flavour release from food is determined by the binding of flavours to other food ingredients and the partition of flavour molecules among different phases. Food emulsions are used as delivery systems for food flavours, and tailored structuring in emulsions provides novel means to better control flavour release. The current study investigated four structured oil-in-water emulsions with structuring in the oil phase, oil-water interface, and water phase. Oil phase structuring was achieved by the formation of monoglyceride (MG) liquid crystals in the oil droplets (MG structured emulsions). Structured interface was created by the adsorption of a whey protein isolate (WPI)-pectin double layer at the interface (multilayer emulsion). Water phase structured emulsions referred to emulsion filled protein gels (EFP gels), where emulsion droplets were embedded in WPI gel network, and emulsions with maltodextrins (MDs) of different dextrose-equivalent (DE) values. Flavour compounds with different physicochemical properties were added into the emulsions, and flavour release (release rate, headspace concentration and air-emulsion partition coefficient) was described by GC headspace analysis. Emulsion structures, including crystalline structure, particle size, emulsion stability, rheology, texture, and microstructures, were characterized using differential scanning calorimetry and X-ray diffraction, light scattering, multisample analytical centrifuge, rheometry, texture analysis, and confocal laser scanning microscopy, respectively. In MG structured emulsions, MG self-assembled into liquid crystalline structures and stable β-form crystals were formed after 3 days of storage at 25 °C. The inclusion of MG crystals allowed tween 20 stabilized emulsions to present viscoelastic properties, and it made WPI stabilized emulsions more sensitive to the change of pH and NaCl concentrations. Flavour compounds in MG structured emulsions had lower initial headspace concentration and air-emulsion partition coefficients than those in unstructured emulsions. Flavour release can be modulated by changing MG content, oil content and oil type. WPI-pectin multilayer emulsions were stable at pH 5.0, 4.0, and 3.0, but they presented extensive creaming when subjected to salt solutions with NaCl ≥ 150 mM and mixed with artificial salivas. Increase of pH from 5.0 to 7.0 resulted in higher headspace concentration but unchanged release rate, and increase of NaCl concentration led to increased headspace concentration and release rate. The study also showed that salivas could trigger higher release of hydrophobic flavours and lower release of hydrophilic flavours. In EFP gels, increases in protein content and oil content contributed to gels with higher storage modulus and force at breaking. Flavour compounds had significantly reduced release rates and air-emulsion partition coefficients in the gels than the corresponding ungelled emulsions, and the reduction was in line with the increase of protein content. Gels with stronger gel network but lower oil content were prepared, and lower or unaffected release rates of the flavours were observed. In emulsions containing maltodextrins, water was frozen at a much lower temperature, and emulsion stability was greatly improved when subjected to freeze-thawing. Among different MDs, MD DE 6 offered the emulsion the highest stability. Flavours had lower air-emulsion partition coefficients in the emulsions with MDs than those in the emulsion without MD. Moreover, the involvement of MDs in the emulsions allowed most flavours had similar release profiles before and after freeze-thaw treatment. The present study provided information about different structured emulsions as delivery systems for flavour compounds, and on how food structure can be designed to modulate flavour release, which could be helpful in the development of functional foods with improved flavour profile.