Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting

Wind energy is the energy source that contributes most to the renewable energy mix of European countries. While there are good wind resources throughout Europe, the intermittency of the wind represents a major problem for the deployment of wind energy into the electricity networks. To ensure grid security a Transmission System Operator needs today for each kilowatt of wind energy either an equal amount of spinning reserve or a forecasting system that can predict the amount of energy that will be produced from wind over a period of 1 to 48 hours. In the range from 5m/s to 15m/s a wind turbine’s production increases with a power of three. For this reason, a Transmission System Operator requires an accuracy for wind speed forecasts of 1m/s in this wind speed range. Forecasting wind energy with a numerical weather prediction model in this context builds the background of this work. The author’s goal was to present a pragmatic solution to this specific problem in the ”real world”. This work therefore has to be seen in a technical context and hence does not provide nor intends to provide a general overview of the benefits and drawbacks of wind energy as a renewable energy source. In the first part of this work the accuracy requirements of the energy sector for wind speed predictions from numerical weather prediction models are described and analysed. A unique set of numerical experiments has been carried out in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute to investigate the forecast quality of an operational numerical weather prediction model for this purpose. The results of this investigation revealed that the accuracy requirements for wind speed and wind power forecasts from today’s numerical weather prediction models can only be met at certain times. This means that the uncertainty of the forecast quality becomes a parameter that is as important as the wind speed and wind power itself. To quantify the uncertainty of a forecast valid for tomorrow requires an ensemble of forecasts. In the second part of this work such an ensemble of forecasts was designed and verified for its ability to quantify the forecast error. This was accomplished by correlating the measured error and the forecasted uncertainty on area integrated wind speed and wind power in Denmark and Ireland. A correlation of 93% was achieved in these areas. This method cannot solve the accuracy requirements of the energy sector. By knowing the uncertainty of the forecasts, the focus can however be put on the accuracy requirements at times when it is possible to accurately predict the weather. Thus, this result presents a major step forward in making wind energy a compatible energy source in the future.

Energy harvesting system design and optimization for wireless sensor networks

Wireless sensor networks (WSN) are becoming widely adopted for many applications including complicated tasks like building energy management. However, one major concern for WSN technologies is the short lifetime and high maintenance cost due to the limited battery energy. One of the solutions is to scavenge ambient energy, which is then rectified to power the WSN. The objective of this thesis was to investigate the feasibility of an ultra-low energy consumption power management system suitable for harvesting sub-mW photovoltaic and thermoelectric energy to power WSNs. To achieve this goal, energy harvesting system architectures have been analyzed. Detailed analysis of energy storage units (ESU) have led to an innovative ESU solution for the target applications. Battery-less, long-lifetime ESU and its associated power management circuitry, including fast-charge circuit, self-start circuit, output voltage regulation circuit and hybrid ESU, using a combination of super-capacitor and thin film battery, were developed to achieve continuous operation of energy harvester. Low start-up voltage DC/DC converters have been developed for 1mW level thermoelectric energy harvesting. The novel method of altering thermoelectric generator (TEG) configuration in order to match impedance has been verified in this work. Novel maximum power point tracking (MPPT) circuits, exploring the fractional open circuit voltage method, were particularly developed to suit the sub-1mW photovoltaic energy harvesting applications. The MPPT energy model has been developed and verified against both SPICE simulation and implemented prototypes. Both indoor light and thermoelectric energy harvesting methods proposed in this thesis have been implemented into prototype devices. The improved indoor light energy harvester prototype demonstrates 81% MPPT conversion efficiency with 0.5mW input power. This important improvement makes light energy harvesting from small energy sources (i.e. credit card size solar panel in 500lux indoor lighting conditions) a feasible approach. The 50mm × 54mm thermoelectric energy harvester prototype generates 0.95mW when placed on a 60oC heat source with 28% conversion efficiency. Both prototypes can be used to continuously power WSN for building energy management applications in typical office building environment. In addition to the hardware development, a comprehensive system energy model has been developed. This system energy model not only can be used to predict the available and consumed energy based on real-world ambient conditions, but also can be employed to optimize the system design and configuration. This energy model has been verified by indoor photovoltaic energy harvesting system prototypes in long-term deployed experiments.

Optimizing perioperative analgesia for patients undergoing operative fixation of hip fractures

This PhD thesis describes work carried out on investigation of various interventions with the aim to optimise the anaesthetic management of patients scheduled to undergo operative fixation of hip fractures. We analysed the perioperative effects of continuous femoral nerve block, single preoperative dose of i.v. dexamethasone, the intention to deposit local anaesthetic in different locations around the femoral nerve during ultrasound guided femoral nerve block, continuous spinal anaesthesia and peri-surgical site infiltration with local anaesthetic after surgical fixation of hip fractures. Continuous femoral nerve block provided more effective preoperative analgesia six hours after the insertion of the perineural catheter compared to a standard opiate-based regimen in patients undergoing operative fixation of fractured hip. A single low dose of preoperative dexamethasone in the intervention group decreased pain scores by 75% six hours after the surgery. Both interventions had no major effect on the functional recovery in the first year after the surgical fixation of fractured hip. The results of the ultrasound guided femoral nerve block trial showed no clinical advantage of intending to deposit local anaesthetic circumferentially during performing femoral nerve block. Using the Dixon and Massey’s “up- and-down” method, we demonstrated that intrathecal 0.26 ml of 0.5% bupivacaine provided adequate surgical anaesthesia within 15 minutes in 50% of patients undergoing operative fixation of hip fracture. Finally, we demonstrated that local anaesthetic infiltration had no effect on pain scores 12 hours after the surgical fixation of fractured neck of femur. In addition to this original body of work, a review article was published on femoral nerve block highlighting the use of ultrasound guidance. In conclusion, the results of this thesis offer an insight into interventions aimed at optimising perioperative analgesia in patients scheduled to undergo operative fixation of hip fractures.

Echoes of existentialism in the works of Carlos Fuentes

In this thesis I have set out to trace the echoes of existentialism in the work of the Mexican novelist, Carlos Fuentes scrutinizing, in particular, La región más transparente, La muerte de Artemio Cruz and Cambio de piel. In the opening segment of the thesis I outline the essential tenets of existentialist thought and how it became the predominant philosophical and literary movement of the early part of the twentieth-century. Stemming from the work of Sören Kierkegaard in Denmark towards the end of the nineteenth-century, it challenged the arid philosophies of previous generations and provided a new way of looking at man and the human condition. In this opening chapter, I study the works of the more important philosophers in this regard such as Heidegger, Sartre, Jaspers, Marcel, Unamuno, and Ortega y Gasset and show how each in his own way contributed to the further development of the new philosophy. Chapter 2 is concerned with the spread of existentialism to the Latin American continent. In the early part of the twentieth-century, Mexico was emerging from a turbulent revolutionary period and seeking a solution to the fractured nature of its society. The Spanish philosopher, Ortega y Gasset, and the many Spanish intellectuals who sought refuge from Franco’s dictatorship in Mexico, helped to popularise the new philosophy and these lively debates about existentialism served to underpin ideas around mexicanidad or Mexican national identity. Carlos Fuentes was deeply immersed in the debate of his time, positioned as he was as a prominent public intellectual. In La muerte de Artemio Cruz he shows us how great wealth and power are a poor recompense for the loss of love and compassion and lead only to alienation and selfishness. In his other best known novel, La región más transparente, he explores the rise of modern Mexico and its society – an inauthentic society that is corrupted by a scramble for wealth and self-aggrandizement. The final chapter is devoted to the study of Cambio de piel which is concerned with violence and alienation as central pillars of existence. The violence depicted here precipitates a crisis in the human condition and an accompanying sense of alienation. The thesis seeks to establish that existentialism is central not only to Fuentes’s literary concerns but also forms a part of his ethics as an artist.