The Ford administration, Angola and the perception of Post-Vietnam US credibility, 1974-1976

This thesis is a study of how the Gerald Ford administration struggled to address a perceived loss of US credibility after the collapse of Vietnam, with a focus on the role of Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in the formulation, implementation and subsequent defence of US Angolan policy. By examining the immediate post-Vietnam period, this thesis shows that Vietnam had a significant impact on Kissinger’s actions on Angola, which resulted in an ill conceived covert operation in another third world conflict. In 1974, Africa was a neglected region in Cold War US foreign policy, yet the effects of the Portuguese revolution led to a rapid decolonization of its African territories, of which Angola was to become the focus of superpower competition. After South Vietnam collapsed in April 1975, Kissinger became fixated on restoring the perceived loss of US prestige, Angola provided the first opportunity to address this. Despite objections from his advisors, Kissinger methodically engineered a covert program to assist two anti-Marxist guerrilla groups in Angola. As the crisis escalated, the media discovered the operation and the Congress decided to cease all funding. A period of heated tensions ensued, resulting in Kissinger creating a new African policy to outmanoeuvre his critics publicly, while privately castigating them to foreign leaders. This thesis argues that Kissinger’s dismissal of internal dissent and opposition from the Congress was influenced by what he perceived as bureaucrats being affected by the Vietnam syndrome, and his obsession with restoring US credibility. By looking at the private and public records – as expressed in government meetings and official reports, US newspaper and television coverage and diplomatic cables – this thesis addresses the question of how the lessons of Vietnam failed to influence Kissinger’s actions in Angola, but the lessons of Angola were heavily influential in the construction of a new US-African policy.

A study of the Hobson and Rogers volatility model

We firstly examine the model of Hobson and Rogers for the volatility of a financial asset such as a stock or share. The main feature of this model is the specification of volatility in terms of past price returns. The volatility process and the underlying price process share the same source of randomness and so the model is said to be complete. Complete models are advantageous as they allow a unique, preference independent price for options on the underlying price process. One of the main objectives of the model is to reproduce the `smiles' and `skews' seen in the market implied volatilities and this model produces the desired effect. In the first main piece of work we numerically calibrate the model of Hobson and Rogers for comparison with existing literature. We also develop parameter estimation methods based on the calibration of a GARCH model. We examine alternative specifications of the volatility and show an improvement of model fit to market data based on these specifications. We also show how to process market data in order to take account of inter-day movements in the volatility surface. In the second piece of work, we extend the Hobson and Rogers model in a way that better reflects market structure. We extend the model to take into account both first and second order effects. We derive and numerically solve the pde which describes the price of options under this extended model. We show that this extension allows for a better fit to the market data. Finally, we analyse the parameters of this extended model in order to understand intuitively the role of these parameters in the volatility surface.

Eleanor Roosevelt: supporting Zion, denying Palestine

Eleanor Roosevelt, as a renowned humanitarian, portrayed an inconsistency by supporting Zionist ambitions for a national homeland in Palestine while simultaneously ignoring the rights of the indigenous Palestinians. Because of this dichotomy, this dissertation explores her attitudes, her disposition and her position in light of the conflict in the region. It conveys how her particular character traits interplayed with the cultural influences prevalent in mid-century America and encouraged her empathy with the plight of European Jews after the Holocaust. As she evolved politically, initially under the tutelage of Franklin Roosevelt and latterly as a UN delegate, she outgrew the anti-Semitism of the period to become a committed Zionist. Judging the Palestinians as ‘primitives’ incapable of self-government and heartened by Jewish development, she supported the partition of Palestine in November 1947. After the 1948 Arab-Israeli war the 800,000 Palestinian refugees encamped in neighbouring Arab states threatened to destabilise the region. Her solution was to discourage repatriation and to re-settle them in Iraq – a plan that directly contravened the principles of the December 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights proclaimed by the UN committee she had chaired. No detailed work has been conducted on these aspects of Eleanor Roosevelt’s life; this dissertation reveals a complex person rather than a model of ‘humanitarianism’, and one whose activities cannot be so simply categorised. In the eight chapters that follow, her own thoughts are disclosed through her ‘My Day’ newspaper column, through letters to friends and to members of the public that petitioned her, through a scrutiny of her articles, books and autobiography. This information was attained as a result of archival research in the US and in The Netherlands and was considered against an extensive range of secondary literature. During the Cold War, to offset Soviet incursion, Eleanor Roosevelt promoted Jewish usurpation of Palestinian lands with equanimity in order that an industrious Western-style democracy would bring stability to the region. These events facilitated the exposure of a latent Orientalism and an imperialistic lien that fostered paternalism in a woman new to the nuances of international diplomacy.

Cancer associated malnutrition: prevalence of cachexia, sarcopenia and impact on treatment outcomes, survival and health related quality of life

Malnutrition, sarcopenia and cancer cachexia (CC) are prevalent among cancer patients and can have detrimental effects on clinical outcomes such as quality of life (QoL) and overall survival. Cachexia is associated with lower tolerance for chemotherapy, which limits the total dose that can be delivered, the number of symptomatic responses and any survival advantage that might be accrued. Moreover, for the majority who do not respond, cachexia may be exacerbated by systemic chemotherapy, thus increasing the net symptom burden experienced by patients. The multitude of interactions between cancer location, treatments, nutritional status and QoL has never been thoroughly explored in an Irish cancer cohort. The objectives of this thesis were to further understand nutritional status, especially body composition in ambulatory cancer patients and determine the relationship between nutritional status using different assessment criteria and QoL, chemotherapy toxicity and survival among cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy. Results aimed to identify baseline factors that may be predictive of poor outcome, toxicities to chemotherapy and disease-free and overall survival. This thesis broadly divides into two sections. The first section (Chapters 3 & 4) focuses on improving our knowledge of the nutritional status of Irish cancer outpatients using a cross sectional study design. A study of 517 patients referred for chemotherapy was conducted using computed tomography (CT) imaging (body composition) and a survey that documented oncologic data, weight loss (WL) data and QoL data. We revealed that a significant proportion of Irish cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy experience unintentional WL over the previous 6 months (62%), sarcopenia (45%) and CC (43%), and the distribution of WL and nutritional risk were associated with site of primary tumour and treatment intent. Patients that had sarcopenia, nutritional risk, or CC had significantly reduced functional abilities, more symptoms and adverse global QoL. In the second section of this thesis (Chapters 5 & 6) the potential link between developing toxicity to antineoplastic regimens in patients with sarcopenia was conducted by way of retrospective studies. A retrospective serial CT analysis defined the prevalence of sarcopenia in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) and metastatic castrate resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), which was then correlated with dose limiting toxicities of sunitinib and docetaxel respectively. Sarcopenia was prevalent in patients with mRCC and mCRPC, was an occult condition in patients with normal/high BMI, was associated with less treatment days, was a significant predictor of DLT in patients receiving sunitinib and a significant predictor of neutropenia and neurosensory toxicities in patients receiving docetaxel. This thesis attempted to address the underlying research deficiencies in Irish oncology nutritional data at national level. The findings from this thesis have implications for the planning of cancer care interventions and indicate that further research is required to improve nutritional screening, in particular for CC and sarcopenia, in the hope that timely intervention can improve both patient-centered and oncologic outcomes.

Justifying jihad: US politics, propaganda and the Afghan mujahedeen

Hard-line anti-communists in the United States recognised the potential for the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 to embroil their super-power rival in a ‘Vietnam-like quagmire.’ Their covert operation to arm the mujahedeen is well documented. This dissertation argues that propaganda and public diplomacy were powerful and essential instruments of this campaign. It examines the protagonists of this strategy, their policies, initiatives and programmes offering a comprehensive analysis heretofore absent. It stretches from the dying days of the Carter administration when Zbigniew Brzezinski saw the ‘opportunity’ presented by the invasion to the Soviet’s withdrawal in 1989. The aim of these information strategies was to damage Soviet credibility and enhance that of the US, considered under threat from growing ‘moral equivalence’ amongst international publics. The conflict could help the US regain strategic advantage in South Asia undermined by the ‘loss’ of Iran. The Reagan administration used it to justify the projection of US military might that it believed was eviscerated under Carter and emasculated by the lingering legacy of Vietnam. The research engages with source material from the Reagan Presidential Library, the United States Information Agency archives and the Library of Congress as well as a number of online archives. The material is multi-archival and multi-media including documentaries, booklets, press conferences, summit programmes and news-clips as well as national security policy documents and contemporaneous media commentary. It concludes that propaganda and public diplomacy were integral to the Reagan administration and other mujahedeen supporters’ determination to challenge the USSR. It finds that the conflict was used to justify military rearmament, further strategic aims and reassert US power. These Cold War machinations had a considerable impact on the course of the conflict and undermined efforts at resolution and reconciliation with profound implications for the future stability of Afghanistan and the world.

Ford, Carter and Cambodia: US foreign policy and the Khmer Rouge

This thesis is an investigation into the US response to the Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia between 1974 and 1981. It argues that the US experience in the Vietnam War acted as a causal factor in the formulation of its Cambodian policy during the presidencies of Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter. From taking power in April 1975 to their removal by the Vietnamese in January 1979, the Khmer Rouge initiated a revolution unrivalled in the 20th Century for its brutality and for the total eradication of modern society. This thesis demonstrates that the Ford administration viewed Cambodia only as it pertained to their strategy in Vietnam and, following US disengagement from Indochina all but ignored the atrocities occurring there as they instead pursued informal relations with the Khmer Rouge as a means of punishing the Vietnamese. The Carter administration formulated a foreign policy based on human rights yet failed to adequately address the genocide that occurred in Cambodia due to its temporal and regional proximity to Vietnam. Instead, this collective reluctance to reengage with the region and the resulting anti-Vietnamese attitude reinforced Brzezinski’s broader global strategy that allied the US with China in support of an independent Cambodia to further isolate Hanoi. Thus this thesis argues that the distorting impact of the Vietnam War, as well as global Cold War calculations, undermined any appreciation of the Cambodian conflict and caused both administrations to pursue policies in Cambodia that ultimately supported the Khmer Rouge regime. This project incorporates declassified material from the Ford and Carter Presidential Libraries, supplemented by the material from the National Archives and Library of Congress, and relevant newspapers and periodicals. It demonstrates that the limitations placed upon US foreign policy by their experience in the Vietnam War may be used to reveal unexplored elements in US-Cambodian relations.