Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States.

The impact of saving and credit cooperatives on food security in the West Amhara Region of Ethiopia

In rural Ethiopia, among other things, lack of adequate financial service is considered as the basic problem to alleviate rural poverty and to solve the problem of food insecurity. Commercial banks are restricted to urban centres. Providing rural financial service through RUSACCO to the poor has been proposed as a tool for economic development and for achieving food security. Evidence from research in this regard has been so far scanty, especially in rural Ethiopia. The aims of this study are to analyze the determinants of membership, to identify socioeconomic and demographic factors that influence members’ participation in RUSACCOs and to quantify the impact of RUSACCOs on member households’ food security. The study was conducted in two purposely selected woredas in the Amhara region one from food insecure (Lay Gayint woreda) and the other from food secure (Dejen woreda). Six RUSACCOs were selected randomly from these two woredas. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected. Key informant interviews, focus group discussions and survey techniques were used to collect primary data. Collected data was then analyzed using mixed methods depending on the nature of data. For quantitative data analysis appropriate statistical models were used. The study result reveals that the number of members in each RUSACCO is very small. However, the majority of non-member respondents are willing to join RUSACCO. Lack of information about the benefits of RUSACCO membership is the main problem why many rural poor do not join RUSACCOs. Members participate in different aspects of the cooperatives, starting from attending general assembly up to board membership. They also participate actively in saving and borrowing activities of RUSACCO. The majority of the respondents believe the RUSACCO is a vital instrument in combating food insecurity. The empirical findings indicate that gender, marital status, occupation, educational level, participation in local leadership and participation in other income generation means determine the decision of rural poor to join a RUSACCO or not. The amount of saving is determined by household head occupation, farming experience and income level. While age of household head, primary occupation, farming experience, date of membership, annual total consumption expenditure, amount of saving and participation in other income generation activities influence members’ amount of borrowing by RUSACCO members. Finally, the study confirms that RUSACCO participation improves household food security. RUSACCO membership has made positive impact on household total consumption expenditure and food expenditure.

Novel structured emulsions for delivering of food flavours

Flavour release from food is determined by the binding of flavours to other food ingredients and the partition of flavour molecules among different phases. Food emulsions are used as delivery systems for food flavours, and tailored structuring in emulsions provides novel means to better control flavour release. The current study investigated four structured oil-in-water emulsions with structuring in the oil phase, oil-water interface, and water phase. Oil phase structuring was achieved by the formation of monoglyceride (MG) liquid crystals in the oil droplets (MG structured emulsions). Structured interface was created by the adsorption of a whey protein isolate (WPI)-pectin double layer at the interface (multilayer emulsion). Water phase structured emulsions referred to emulsion filled protein gels (EFP gels), where emulsion droplets were embedded in WPI gel network, and emulsions with maltodextrins (MDs) of different dextrose-equivalent (DE) values. Flavour compounds with different physicochemical properties were added into the emulsions, and flavour release (release rate, headspace concentration and air-emulsion partition coefficient) was described by GC headspace analysis. Emulsion structures, including crystalline structure, particle size, emulsion stability, rheology, texture, and microstructures, were characterized using differential scanning calorimetry and X-ray diffraction, light scattering, multisample analytical centrifuge, rheometry, texture analysis, and confocal laser scanning microscopy, respectively. In MG structured emulsions, MG self-assembled into liquid crystalline structures and stable β-form crystals were formed after 3 days of storage at 25 °C. The inclusion of MG crystals allowed tween 20 stabilized emulsions to present viscoelastic properties, and it made WPI stabilized emulsions more sensitive to the change of pH and NaCl concentrations. Flavour compounds in MG structured emulsions had lower initial headspace concentration and air-emulsion partition coefficients than those in unstructured emulsions. Flavour release can be modulated by changing MG content, oil content and oil type. WPI-pectin multilayer emulsions were stable at pH 5.0, 4.0, and 3.0, but they presented extensive creaming when subjected to salt solutions with NaCl ≥ 150 mM and mixed with artificial salivas. Increase of pH from 5.0 to 7.0 resulted in higher headspace concentration but unchanged release rate, and increase of NaCl concentration led to increased headspace concentration and release rate. The study also showed that salivas could trigger higher release of hydrophobic flavours and lower release of hydrophilic flavours. In EFP gels, increases in protein content and oil content contributed to gels with higher storage modulus and force at breaking. Flavour compounds had significantly reduced release rates and air-emulsion partition coefficients in the gels than the corresponding ungelled emulsions, and the reduction was in line with the increase of protein content. Gels with stronger gel network but lower oil content were prepared, and lower or unaffected release rates of the flavours were observed. In emulsions containing maltodextrins, water was frozen at a much lower temperature, and emulsion stability was greatly improved when subjected to freeze-thawing. Among different MDs, MD DE 6 offered the emulsion the highest stability. Flavours had lower air-emulsion partition coefficients in the emulsions with MDs than those in the emulsion without MD. Moreover, the involvement of MDs in the emulsions allowed most flavours had similar release profiles before and after freeze-thaw treatment. The present study provided information about different structured emulsions as delivery systems for flavour compounds, and on how food structure can be designed to modulate flavour release, which could be helpful in the development of functional foods with improved flavour profile.

The defining characteristics of alternative food initiatives in Ireland: a social movement battling for an alternative food future?

Alternative food initiatives (AFIs) have been described as an attempt to change and improve aspects of how the food system operates. They are focused around more traditional, local and sustainable food production and circulation. AFIs such as farmers’ markets, allotments and community gardens, share a desire to reduce the number of steps food goes through from production to plate. The role of these initiatives in the food system, and their potential to impact real change, has however been questioned. Working to better understand this issue is a central concern of this research. To do this a two tier analysis has been deployed. The first tier involves identifying the characteristics and general dynamics of AFIs. Bourdieu’s theory of practice, and the theories of field and capital, are the concepts applied. The research then uses these findings in the second tier of analysis concerned with relating AFI characteristics and dynamics back to their key traits, positive and negative, as well as arguments made about AFI’s role identified from previous research. Another part of this second tier of analysis is exploring if AFIs, the producers, consumers, organisations and groups that make up this phenomenon, can be considered a social movement. AFIs can be referred to collectively as a social movement, but are not often explored theoretically from this perspective. AFIs in Ireland provide the empirical context for this research. A series of qualitative interviews in four areas of Ireland, as well as evidence from primary and secondary sources are analysed. The research finds that AFIs can be understood as the potential beginnings of a lifestyle social movement. Leaders are of central importance to its development. It is also found that an important role of AFIs is revitalising, supporting and contributing to food culture.

Effectuation and its implications for socio-technical design science research in information systems

We study the implications of the effectuation concept for socio-technical artifact design as part of the design science research (DSR) process in information systems (IS). Effectuation logic is the opposite of causal logic. Ef-fectuation does not focus on causes to achieve a particular effect, but on the possibilities that can be achieved with extant means and resources. Viewing so-cio-technical IS DSR through an effectuation lens highlights the possibility to design the future even without set goals. We suggest that effectuation may be a useful perspective for design in dynamic social contexts leading to a more dif-ferentiated view on the instantiation of mid-range artifacts for specific local ap-plication contexts. Design science researchers can draw on this paper’s conclu-sions to view their DSR projects through a fresh lens and to reexamine their re-search design and execution. The paper also offers avenues for future research to develop more concrete application possibilities of effectuation in socio-technical IS DSR and, thus, enrich the discourse.