Bottom-up modelling of energy demand and technical energy savings potential in the Irish residential sector

The International Energy Agency has repeatedly identified increased end-use energy efficiency as the quickest, least costly method of green house gas mitigation, most recently in the 2012 World Energy Outlook, and urges all governing bodies to increase efforts to promote energy efficiency policies and technologies. The residential sector is recognised as a major potential source of cost effective energy efficiency gains. Within the EU this relative importance can be seen from a review of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAP) submitted by member states, which in all cases place a large emphasis on the residential sector. This is particularly true for Ireland whose residential sector has historically had higher energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the EU average and whose first NEEAP targeted 44% of the energy savings to be achieved in 2020 from this sector. This thesis develops a bottom-up engineering archetype modelling approach to analyse the Irish residential sector and to estimate the technical energy savings potential of a number of policy measures. First, a model of space and water heating energy demand for new dwellings is built and used to estimate the technical energy savings potential due to the introduction of the 2008 and 2010 changes to part L of the building regulations governing energy efficiency in new dwellings. Next, the author makes use of a valuable new dataset of Building Energy Rating (BER) survey results to first characterise the highly heterogeneous stock of existing dwellings, and then to estimate the technical energy savings potential of an ambitious national retrofit programme targeting up to 1 million residential dwellings. This thesis also presents work carried out by the author as part of a collaboration to produce a bottom-up, multi-sector LEAP model for Ireland. Overall this work highlights the challenges faced in successfully implementing both sets of policy measures. It points to the wide potential range of final savings possible from particular policy measures and the resulting high degree of uncertainty as to whether particular targets will be met and identifies the key factors on which the success of these policies will depend. It makes recommendations on further modelling work and on the improvements necessary in the data available to researchers and policy makers alike in order to develop increasingly sophisticated residential energy demand models and better inform policy.

Composition portfolio and commentaries

In an attempt to provide an analytical entry point into my compositional practice, I have identified eight themes which are significantly recurrent: reduction – the selection of a small number of elements; imperfection – a damaged or warped characteristic of sound; hierarchy – a concern with the roles of instruments with regard to their relative prominence; motion – apparently static sound masses consist of fine internal movement; listener perception – expectations for change influence the experience of affect; translation – the transitioning of electronic sounds to the acoustic realm, and vice versa; immersion – the creation of an accommodating soundscape; blurring – smearing and overlapping sounds or genres. Each of these eight factors is associated with relevant precedents in the history and theory of music that have been influential on my work. These include the minimalist compositions of Steve Reich and Arvo Pärt; the lo-fi aesthetic of Boards of Canada and My Bloody Valentine; concerns with political hierarchy in the work of Louis Andriessen; the variations of dynamics and microtonal shifts of Giacinto Scelsi; Leonard B. Meyer's account of expectation in music; cross-fertilisation of the acoustic and electronic in pieces by Gérard Grisey and Gyorgy Ligeti; the immersive technique of Brian Eno's ambient music; and the overlapping sounds of Aphex Twin. These eight factors are variously applicable to the eleven submitted pieces, which are individually analysed with reference to the most significant of the categories. Together they form a musical language that sustains the interaction of a variety of techniques, concepts and genres.

Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States.

Generation and characterisation of biologically active milk-derived protein and peptide fractions

In recent years, extensive research has been carried out on the health benefits of milk proteins and peptides. Biologically active peptides are defined as specific protein fragments which have a positive impact on the physiological functions of the body; such peptides are produced naturally in vivo, but can also be generated by physical and/or chemical processes, enzymatic hydrolysis and/or microbial fermentation. The aims of this thesis were to investigate not only the traditional methods used for the generation of bioactive peptides, but also novel processes such as heat treatment, and the role of indigenous milk proteases, e.g., in mastitic milk, in the production of such peptides. In addition, colostrum was characterised as a source of bioactive proteins and peptides. Firstly, a comprehensive study was carried out on the composition and physical properties of colostrum throughout the early-lactation period. Marked differences in the physico-chemical properties of colostrum compared with milk were observed. Various fractions of colostrum were also tested for their effect on the secretion of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines from a macrophage cell line and bone marrow dendritic cells, as well as insulin secretion from a pancreatic beta cell line. A significant reduction in the secretion of the pro-inflammatory cytokines, TNF-α, IL-6, IL-1β and IL-12, a significant increase in the secretion of the anti-inflammatory cytokine, IL-10, as well as a significant increase in insulin secretion were observed for various colostrum fractions. Another study examined the early proteomic changes in the milk of 8 cows in response to infusion with the endotoxin lipopolysaccharide (LPS) at quarter level in a model mastitic system; marked differences in the protein and peptide profile of milk from LPS challenged cows were observed, and a pH 4.6-soluble fraction of this milk was found to cause a substantial induction in the secretion of IL-10 from a murine macrophage cell line. Heat-induced hydrolysis of sodium caseinate was investigated from the dual viewpoints of protein breakdown and peptide formation, and, a peptide fraction produced in this manner was found to cause a significant increase in the secretion of the anti-inflammatory cytokine, IL-10, from a murine macrophage cell line. The effects of sodium caseinate hydrolysed by chymosin on the gut-derived satiety hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) were investigated; the resulting casein-derived peptides displayed good in vitro and in vivo secretion of GLP-1. Overall, the studies described in this thesis expand on current knowledge and provide good evidence for the use of novel methods for the isolation, generation and characterisation of bioactive proteins and/or peptides.

High-efficiency photovoltaics through mechanically stacked integration of solar cells based on the InP lattice constant

Solar Energy is a clean and abundant energy source that can help reduce reliance on fossil fuels around which questions still persist about their contribution to climate and long-term availability. Monolithic triple-junction solar cells are currently the state of the art photovoltaic devices with champion cell efficiencies exceeding 40%, but their ultimate efficiency is restricted by the current-matching constraint of series-connected cells. The objective of this thesis was to investigate the use of solar cells with lattice constants equal to InP in order to reduce the constraint of current matching in multi-junction solar cells. This was addressed by two approaches: Firstly, the formation of mechanically stacked solar cells (MSSC) was investigated through the addition of separate connections to individual cells that make up a multi-junction device. An electrical and optical modelling approach identified separately connected InGaAs bottom cells stacked under dual-junction GaAs based top cells as a route to high efficiency. An InGaAs solar cell was fabricated on an InP substrate with a measured 1-Sun conversion efficiency of 9.3%. A comparative study of adhesives found benzocyclobutene to be the most suitable for bonding component cells in a mechanically stacked configuration owing to its higher thermal conductivity and refractive index when compared to other candidate adhesives. A flip-chip process was developed to bond single-junction GaAs and InGaAs cells with a measured 4-terminal MSSC efficiency of 25.2% under 1-Sun conditions. Additionally, a novel InAlAs solar cell was identified, which can be used to provide an alternative to the well established GaAs solar cell. As wide bandgap InAlAs solar cells have not been extensively investigated for use in photovoltaics, single-junction cells were fabricated and their properties relevant to PV operation analysed. Minority carrier diffusion lengths in the micrometre range were extracted, confirming InAlAs as a suitable material for use in III-V solar cells, and a 1-Sun conversion efficiency of 6.6% measured for cells with 800 nm thick absorber layers. Given the cost and small diameter of commercially available InP wafers, InGaAs and InAlAs solar cells were fabricated on alternative substrates, namely GaAs. As a first demonstration the lattice constant of a GaAs substrate was graded to InP using an InxGa1-xAs metamorphic buffer layer onto which cells were grown. This was the first demonstration of an InAlAs solar cell on an alternative substrate and an initial step towards fabricating these cells on Si. The results presented offer a route to developing multi-junction solar cell devices based on the InP lattice parameter, thus extending the range of available bandgaps for high efficiency cells.

A comprehensive description of the competencies required for the performance of an ultrasound-guided axillary brachial plexus blockade

We addressed four research questions, each relating to the training and assessment of the competencies associated with the performance of ultrasound-guided axillary brachial plexus blockade (USgABPB). These were: (i) What are the most important determinants of learning of USgABPB? (ii) What is USgABPB? What are the errors most likely to occur when trainees learn to perform this procedure? (iii) How should end-user input be applied to the development of a novel USgABPB simulator? (iv) Does structured simulation based training influence novice learning of the procedure positively? We demonstrated that the most important determinants of learning USgABPB are: (a) Access to a formal structured training programme. (b) Frequent exposure to clinical learning opportunity in an appropriate setting (c) A clinical learning opporunity requires an appropriate patient, trainee and teacher being present at the same time, in an appropriate environment. We carried out a comprehensive description of the procedure. We performed a formal task analysis of USgABPB, identifying (i) 256 specific tasks associated with the safe and effective performance of the procedure, and (ii) the 20 most critical errors likely to occur in this setting. We described a methodology for this and collected data based on detailed, sequential evaluation of prototypes by trainees in anaesthesia. We carried out a pilot randomised control trial assessing the effectiveness of a USgABPB simulator during its development. Our data did not enable us to draw a reliable conclusion to this question; the trail did provide important new learning (as a pilot) to inform future investigation of this question. We believe that the ultimate goal of designing effective simulation-based training and assessment of ultrasound-guided regional anaesthesia is closer to realisation as a result of this work. It remains to be proven if this approach will have a positive impact on procedural performance, and more importantly improve patient outcomes.

Voltage properties of optically injected long wavelength VCSELs: Theory and experiment

Future high speed communications networks will transmit data predominantly over optical fibres. As consumer and enterprise computing will remain the domain of electronics, the electro-optical conversion will get pushed further downstream towards the end user. Consequently, efficient tools are needed for this conversion and due to many potential advantages, including low cost and high output powers, long wavelength Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Lasers (VCSELs) are a viable option. Drawbacks, such as broader linewidths than competing options, can be mitigated through the use of additional techniques such as Optical Injection Locking (OIL) which can require significant expertise and expensive equipment. This thesis addresses these issues by removing some of the experimental barriers to achieving performance increases via remote OIL. Firstly, numerical simulations of the phase and the photon and carrier numbers of an OIL semiconductor laser allowed the classification of the stable locking phase limits into three distinct groups. The frequency detuning of constant phase values (ø) was considered, in particular ø = 0 where the modulation response parameters were shown to be independent of the linewidth enhancement factor, α. A new method to estimate α and the coupling rate in a single experiment was formulated. Secondly, a novel technique to remotely determine the locked state of a VCSEL based on voltage variations of 2mV−30mV during detuned injection has been developed which can identify oscillatory and locked states. 2D & 3D maps of voltage, optical and electrical spectra illustrate corresponding behaviours. Finally, the use of directly modulated VCSELs as light sources for passive optical networks was investigated by successful transmission of data at 10 Gbit/s over 40km of single mode fibre (SMF) using cost effective electronic dispersion compensation to mitigate errors due to wavelength chirp. A widely tuneable MEMS-VCSEL was established as a good candidate for an externally modulated colourless source after a record error free transmission at 10 Gbit/s over 50km of SMF across a 30nm single mode tuning range. The ability to remotely set the emission wavelength using the novel methods developed in this thesis was demonstrated.

Synthesis and reactivity of pyridine substituted α-diazocarbonyl compounds and exploration of rhodium carboxylates as asymmetric catalysts

The primary objective of this thesis was the preparation of a series of pyridine-containing α-diazocarbonyl compounds and subsequent investigation of the reactivity of these compounds on exposure to transition metal catalysts. In particular, the reactivity of the pyridyl α-diazocarbonyls was compared to that of the analogous phenyl α-diazocarbonyl compounds to ascertain the impact of replacement of the phenyl ring with pyridine. The first chapter initially provides a brief introduction into α-diazocarbonyl chemistry, comprising a compendium of well-established and recently developed methods in the preparation of these compounds, as well as an outline of the reactivity of these versatile substrates. The substantive element of this introductory chapter comprises a detailed review focused on transition metal-catalysed transformations of heterocyclic α-diazocarbonyl compounds, highlighting the extraordinary diversity of reaction products which can be accessed. This review is undertaken to set the work of this thesis in context. The results of this research are discussed in the second and third chapters together with the associated experimental details, including spectroscopic and analytical data obtained in the synthesis of all compounds during this research. The second chapter describes the preparation of a range of novel pyridine-containing α-diazocarbonyl compounds via a number of synthetic strategies including both acylation and diazo transfer methodologies. In contrast to the phenyl analogues, the generation of the pyridine α-diazocarbonyl substrates was complicated by a number of factors including the inherent basicity of the pyridine ring, tautomerism and existence of rotamers. Rhodium- and copper-mediated transformations of the pyridine-containing α-diazocarbonyl compounds is discussed in detail displaying very different reactivity patterns to those seen with the phenyl analogues; oxidation to 2,3- diketones, 1,2-hydride shift to form enones and oxonium and sulfonium ylide formation/rearrangement are prominent in the pyridyl series, with no evidence of aromatic addition to the pyridine ring. The third chapter focuses on exploration of novel chiral rhodium(II) catalysts, developed in the Maguire team, in both intermolecular cyclopropanations and intramolecular C–H insertion reactions. In this chapter, the studies are focused on standard α-diazocarbonyl compounds without heteroaryl substituents. The most notable outcome was the achievement of high enantiopurities for intramolecular C–H insertions, which were competitive with, and even surpassed, established catalyst systems in some cases. This work has provided insight into solvent and temperature effects on yields as well as enantio- and diastereoselectivity, thereby providing guidance for future development and design of chiral rhodium carboxylate catalysts. While this is a preliminary study, the significance of the results lie in the fact that these are the first reactions to give substantial asymmetric induction with these novel rhodium carboxylates. While the majority of the α-diazocarbonyl compounds explored in this work were α-diazoketones, a number of α-diazoesters are also described. Details of chiral stationary phase HPLC analysis, single crystal analysis and 2D NMR experiments are included in the Appendix (Appendix III-V).

Mechanically stacked solar cells for concentrator photovoltaics

The power output of dual-junction mechanically stacked solar cells comprising different sub-cell materials in a terrestrial concentrating photovoltaic module has been evaluated. The ideal bandgap combination of both cells in a stack was found using EtaOpt. A combination of 1.4 eV and 0.7 eV has been found to produce the highest photovoltaic conversion efficiency under the AM1.5 Direct Solar Spectrum with x500 concentration. As EtaOpt does not consider the absorption profile of solar cell materials; the practical power output per unit area of a dual junction mechanically stacked solar cell has been modelled considering the optical absorption co-efficients and thicknesses of the individual solar cells. The model considered a GaAs top cell and a Ge, GaSb, Ga0.47In0.53As or Si bottom cell. It was found that GaSb gives the highest power contribution as a bottom cell in a dual junction configuration followed by Ge and GaInAs. While the additional power provided by a Si bottom cell is less than these it remains a suitable candidate for a bottom cell owing to its lower cost

Exploring an agent as an economic insider threat solution

The insider threat is a security problem that is well-known and has a long history, yet it still remains an invisible enemy. Insiders know the security processes and have accesses that allow them to easily cover their tracks. In recent years the idea of monitoring separately for these threats has come into its own. However, the tools currently in use have disadvantages and one of the most effective techniques of human review is costly. This paper explores the development of an intelligent agent that uses already in-place computing material for inference as an inexpensive monitoring tool for insider threats. Design Science Research (DSR) is a methodology used to explore and develop an IT artifact, such as for this intelligent agent research. This methodology allows for a structure that can guide a deep search method for problems that may not be possible to solve or could add to a phenomenological instantiation.

CloudNeg: An autonomous multi issue negotiation system, with preference elicitation component, for trading cloud services

Cloud services provide its users with flexible resource provisioning. But in the current market, a user has to choose from a limited set of configurations at a fixed price. This paper presents an autonomous negotiation system termed CloudNeg for negotiating cloud services. CloudNeg provides buyers and sellers of cloud services with autonomous agents to negotiate on the specifications of a cloud instance, including price, on their behalf. These agents elicit their buyers’ time preferences and use them in negotiations. Further, this paper presents two artifacts: a negotiation algorithm and a prototype which together form CloudNeg.

Shipping information pipeline: initial design principles

This paper presents a design science approach to solving persistent problems in the international shipping eco system by creating the missing common information infrastructures. Specifically, this paper reports on an ongoing dialogue between stakeholders in the shipping industry and information systems researchers engaged in the design and development of a prototype for an innovative IT-artifact called Shipping Information Pipeline which is a kind of “an internet” for shipping information. The instrumental aim is to enable information seamlessly to cross the organizational boundaries and national borders within international shipping which is a rather complex domain. The intellectual objective is to generate and evaluate the efficacy and effectiveness of design principles for inter-organizational information infrastructures in the international shipping domain that can have positive impacts on global trade and local economies.

Developing a health and wellbeing platform in a living lab setting: An action design research study

The world’s population is rapidly aging, which affects healthcare budgets, resources, pensions and social security systems. Although most older adults prefer to live independently in their own home as long as possible, smart living solutions to support elderly people at home did not reach mass adoption, yet. To support people age-in-place a Living Lab is established in one of the metropolitan areas in the Netherlands. The main goal of the Living Lab is to develop an online health and wellbeing platform that matches service providers, caretakers and users and to implement that platform in one particular city district. In this paper we describe the narrative of the action design research process that will give researchers insight how to deal with complex multi-stakeholder design projects as well as cooperation issues to develop an artifact in a real-life setting.

Towards a situation-awareness-driven design of operational business intelligence & analytics systems

With the swamping and timeliness of data in the organizational context, the decision maker’s choice of an appropriate decision alternative in a given situation is defied. In particular, operational actors are facing the challenge to meet business-critical decisions in a short time and at high frequency. The construct of Situation Awareness (SA) has been established in cognitive psychology as a valid basis for understanding the behavior and decision making of human beings in complex and dynamic systems. SA gives decision makers the possibility to make informed, time-critical decisions and thereby improve the performance of the respective business process. This research paper leverages SA as starting point for a design science project for Operational Business Intelligence and Analytics systems and suggests a first version of design principles.

Biased group decision-making and the effect of computer-mediated communication: separating the effects of anonymity, voting and blind picking

The influence of communication technology on group decision-making has been examined in many studies. But the findings are inconsistent. Some studies showed a positive effect on decision quality, other studies have shown that communication technology makes the decision even worse. One possible explanation for these different findings could be the use of different Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) in these studies, with some GDSS better fitting to the given task than others and with different sets of functions. This paper outlines an approach with an information system solely designed to examine the effect of (1) anonymity, (2) voting and (3) blind picking on decision quality, discussion quality and perceived quality of information.