On the Convergence of Statistical Techniques for Inferring Network Traffic Demands

Accurate knowledge of traffic demands in a communication network enables or enhances a variety of traffic engineering and network management tasks of paramount importance for operational networks. Directly measuring a complete set of these demands is prohibitively expensive because of the huge amounts of data that must be collected and the performance impact that such measurements would impose on the regular behavior of the network. As a consequence, we must rely on statistical techniques to produce estimates of actual traffic demands from partial information. The performance of such techniques is however limited due to their reliance on limited information and the high amount of computations they incur, which limits their convergence behavior. In this paper we study strategies to improve the convergence of a powerful statistical technique based on an Expectation-Maximization iterative algorithm. First we analyze modeling approaches to generating starting points. We call these starting points informed priors since they are obtained using actual network information such as packet traces and SNMP link counts. Second we provide a very fast variant of the EM algorithm which extends its computation range, increasing its accuracy and decreasing its dependence on the quality of the starting point. Finally, we study the convergence characteristics of our EM algorithm and compare it against a recently proposed Weighted Least Squares approach.

Structural Analysis of Network Traffic Flows

Network traffic arises from the superposition of Origin-Destination (OD) flows. Hence, a thorough understanding of OD flows is essential for modeling network traffic, and for addressing a wide variety of problems including traffic engineering, traffic matrix estimation, capacity planning, forecasting and anomaly detection. However, to date, OD flows have not been closely studied, and there is very little known about their properties. We present the first analysis of complete sets of OD flow timeseries, taken from two different backbone networks (Abilene and Sprint-Europe). Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we find that the set of OD flows has small intrinsic dimension. In fact, even in a network with over a hundred OD flows, these flows can be accurately modeled in time using a small number (10 or less) of independent components or dimensions. We also show how to use PCA to systematically decompose the structure of OD flow timeseries into three main constituents: common periodic trends, short-lived bursts, and noise. We provide insight into how the various constituents contribute to the overall structure of OD flows and explore the extent to which this decomposition varies over time.

Diagnosing Network-Wide Traffic Anomalies

Anomalies are unusual and significant changes in a network's traffic levels, which can often involve multiple links. Diagnosing anomalies is critical for both network operators and end users. It is a difficult problem because one must extract and interpret anomalous patterns from large amounts of high-dimensional, noisy data. In this paper we propose a general method to diagnose anomalies. This method is based on a separation of the high-dimensional space occupied by a set of network traffic measurements into disjoint subspaces corresponding to normal and anomalous network conditions. We show that this separation can be performed effectively using Principal Component Analysis. Using only simple traffic measurements from links, we study volume anomalies and show that the method can: (1) accurately detect when a volume anomaly is occurring; (2) correctly identify the underlying origin-destination (OD) flow which is the source of the anomaly; and (3) accurately estimate the amount of traffic involved in the anomalous OD flow. We evaluate the method's ability to diagnose (i.e., detect, identify, and quantify) both existing and synthetically injected volume anomalies in real traffic from two backbone networks. Our method consistently diagnoses the largest volume anomalies, and does so with a very low false alarm rate.

A Two-step Statistical Approach for Inferring Network Traffic Demands (Revises Technical Report BUCS-2003-003)

Accurate knowledge of traffic demands in a communication network enables or enhances a variety of traffic engineering and network management tasks of paramount importance for operational networks. Directly measuring a complete set of these demands is prohibitively expensive because of the huge amounts of data that must be collected and the performance impact that such measurements would impose on the regular behavior of the network. As a consequence, we must rely on statistical techniques to produce estimates of actual traffic demands from partial information. The performance of such techniques is however limited due to their reliance on limited information and the high amount of computations they incur, which limits their convergence behavior. In this paper we study a two-step approach for inferring network traffic demands. First we elaborate and evaluate a modeling approach for generating good starting points to be fed to iterative statistical inference techniques. We call these starting points informed priors since they are obtained using actual network information such as packet traces and SNMP link counts. Second we provide a very fast variant of the EM algorithm which extends its computation range, increasing its accuracy and decreasing its dependence on the quality of the starting point. Finally, we evaluate and compare alternative mechanisms for generating starting points and the convergence characteristics of our EM algorithm against a recently proposed Weighted Least Squares approach.

Characterization of Network-Wide Anomalies in Traffic Flows

Detecting and understanding anomalies in IP networks is an open and ill-defined problem. Toward this end, we have recently proposed the subspace method for anomaly diagnosis. In this paper we present the first large-scale exploration of the power of the subspace method when applied to flow traffic. An important aspect of this approach is that it fuses information from flow measurements taken throughout a network. We apply the subspace method to three different types of sampled flow traffic in a large academic network: multivariate timeseries of byte counts, packet counts, and IP-flow counts. We show that each traffic type brings into focus a different set of anomalies via the subspace method. We illustrate and classify the set of anomalies detected. We find that almost all of the anomalies detected represent events of interest to network operators. Furthermore, the anomalies span a remarkably wide spectrum of event types, including denial of service attacks (single-source and distributed), flash crowds, port scanning, downstream traffic engineering, high-rate flows, worm propagation, and network outage.

Measuring Bottleneck Link Speed in Package-Switched Networks

The quality of available network connections can often have a large impact on the performance of distributed applications. For example, document transfer applications such as FTP, Gopher and the World Wide Web suffer increased response times as a result of network congestion. For these applications, the document transfer time is directly related to the available bandwidth of the connection. Available bandwidth depends on two things: 1) the underlying capacity of the path from client to server, which is limited by the bottleneck link; and 2) the amount of other traffic competing for links on the path. If measurements of these quantities were available to the application, the current utilization of connections could be calculated. Network utilization could then be used as a basis for selection from a set of alternative connections or servers, thus providing reduced response time. Such a dynamic server selection scheme would be especially important in a mobile computing environment in which the set of available servers is frequently changing. In order to provide these measurements at the application level, we introduce two tools: bprobe, which provides an estimate of the uncongested bandwidth of a path; and cprobe, which gives an estimate of the current congestion along a path. These two measures may be used in combination to provide the application with an estimate of available bandwidth between server and client thereby enabling application-level congestion avoidance. In this paper we discuss the design and implementation of our probe tools, specifically illustrating the techniques used to achieve accuracy and robustness. We present validation studies for both tools which demonstrate their reliability in the face of actual Internet conditions; and we give results of a survey of available bandwidth to a random set of WWW servers as a sample application of our probe technique. We conclude with descriptions of other applications of our measurement tools, several of which are currently under development.

TCP Boston: A Fragmentation-tolerant TCP Protocol for ATM Networks

The popularity of TCP/IP coupled with the premise of high speed communication using Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) technology have prompted the network research community to propose a number of techniques to adapt TCP/IP to ATM network environments. ATM offers Available Bit Rate (ABR) and Unspecified Bit Rate (UBR) services for best-effort traffic, such as conventional file transfer. However, recent studies have shown that TCP/IP, when implemented using ABR or UBR, leads to serious performance degradations, especially when the utilization of network resources (such as switch buffers) is high. Proposed techniques-switch-level enhancements, for example-that attempt to patch up TCP/IP over ATMs have had limited success in alleviating this problem. The major reason for TCP/IP's poor performance over ATMs has been consistently attributed to packet fragmentation, which is the result of ATM's 53-byte cell-oriented switching architecture. In this paper, we present a new transport protocol, TCP Boston, that turns ATM's 53-byte cell-oriented switching architecture into an advantage for TCP/IP. At the core of TCP Boston is the Adaptive Information Dispersal Algorithm (AIDA), an efficient encoding technique that allows for dynamic redundancy control. AIDA makes TCP/IP's performance less sensitive to cell losses, thus ensuring a graceful degradation of TCP/IP's performance when faced with congested resources. In this paper, we introduce AIDA and overview the main features of TCP Boston. We present detailed simulation results that show the superiority of our protocol when compared to other adaptations of TCP/IP over ATMs. In particular, we show that TCP Boston improves TCP/IP's performance over ATMs for both network-centric metrics (e.g., effective throughput) and application-centric metrics (e.g., response time).

An Energy-conscious Transport Protocol for Multi-hop Wireless Networks

We present a transport protocol whose goal is to reduce power consumption without compromising delivery requirements of applications. To meet its goal of energy efficiency, our transport protocol (1) contains mechanisms to balance end-to-end vs. local retransmissions; (2) minimizes acknowledgment traffic using receiver regulated rate-based flow control combined with selected acknowledgements and in-network caching of packets; and (3) aggressively seeks to avoid any congestion-based packet loss. Within a recently developed ultra low-power multi-hop wireless network system, extensive simulations and experimental results demonstrate that our transport protocol meets its goal of preserving the energy efficiency of the underlying network.

Multiplexing VBR Traffic Flows with Guaranteed Application-level QoS Using Statistical Rate Monotonic Scheduling

Quality of Service (QoS) guarantees are required by an increasing number of applications to ensure a minimal level of fidelity in the delivery of application data units through the network. Application-level QoS does not necessarily follow from any transport-level QoS guarantees regarding the delivery of the individual cells (e.g. ATM cells) which comprise the application's data units. The distinction between application-level and transport-level QoS guarantees is due primarily to the fragmentation that occurs when transmitting large application data units (e.g. IP packets, or video frames) using much smaller network cells, whereby the partial delivery of a data unit is useless; and, bandwidth spent to partially transmit the data unit is wasted. The data units transmitted by an application may vary in size while being constant in rate, which results in a variable bit rate (VBR) data flow. That data flow requires QoS guarantees. Statistical multiplexing is inadequate, because no guarantees can be made and no firewall property exists between different data flows. In this paper, we present a novel resource management paradigm for the maintenance of application-level QoS for VBR flows. Our paradigm is based on Statistical Rate Monotonic Scheduling (SRMS), in which (1) each application generates its variable-size data units at a fixed rate, (2) the partial delivery of data units is of no value to the application, and (3) the QoS guarantee extended to the application is the probability that an arbitrary data unit will be successfully transmitted through the network to/from the application.

Mining Anomalies Using Traffic Feature Distributions

The increasing practicality of large-scale flow capture makes it possible to conceive of traffic analysis methods that detect and identify a large and diverse set of anomalies. However the challenge of effectively analyzing this massive data source for anomaly diagnosis is as yet unmet. We argue that the distributions of packet features (IP addresses and ports) observed in flow traces reveals both the presence and the structure of a wide range of anomalies. Using entropy as a summarization tool, we show that the analysis of feature distributions leads to significant advances on two fronts: (1) it enables highly sensitive detection of a wide range of anomalies, augmenting detections by volume-based methods, and (2) it enables automatic classification of anomalies via unsupervised learning. We show that using feature distributions, anomalies naturally fall into distinct and meaningful clusters. These clusters can be used to automatically classify anomalies and to uncover new anomaly types. We validate our claims on data from two backbone networks (Abilene and Geant) and conclude that feature distributions show promise as a key element of a fairly general network anomaly diagnosis framework.

Implications of Selfish Neighbor Selection in Overlay Networks

In a typical overlay network for routing or content sharing, each node must select a fixed number of immediate overlay neighbors for routing traffic or content queries. A selfish node entering such a network would select neighbors so as to minimize the weighted sum of expected access costs to all its destinations. Previous work on selfish neighbor selection has built intuition with simple models where edges are undirected, access costs are modeled by hop-counts, and nodes have potentially unbounded degrees. However, in practice, important constraints not captured by these models lead to richer games with substantively and fundamentally different outcomes. Our work models neighbor selection as a game involving directed links, constraints on the number of allowed neighbors, and costs reflecting both network latency and node preference. We express a node's "best response" wiring strategy as a k-median problem on asymmetric distance, and use this formulation to obtain pure Nash equilibria. We experimentally examine the properties of such stable wirings on synthetic topologies, as well as on real topologies and maps constructed from PlanetLab and AS-level Internet measurements. Our results indicate that selfish nodes can reap substantial performance benefits when connecting to overlay networks composed of non-selfish nodes. On the other hand, in overlays that are dominated by selfish nodes, the resulting stable wirings are optimized to such great extent that even non-selfish newcomers can extract near-optimal performance through naive wiring strategies.

An Independent-Connection Model for Traffic Matrices

A common assumption made in traffic matrix (TM) modeling and estimation is independence of a packet's network ingress and egress. We argue that in real IP networks, this assumption should not and does not hold. The fact that most traffic consists of two-way exchanges of packets means that traffic streams flowing in opposite directions at any point in the network are not independent. In this paper we propose a model for traffic matrices based on independence of connections rather than packets. We argue that the independent connection (IC) model is more intuitive, and has a more direct connection to underlying network phenomena than the gravity model. To validate the IC model, we show that it fits real data better than the gravity model and that it works well as a prior in the TM estimation problem. We study the model's parameters empirically and identify useful stability properties. This justifies the use of the simpler versions of the model for TM applications. To illustrate the utility of the model we focus on two such applications: synthetic TM generation and TM estimation. To the best of our knowledge this is the first traffic matrix model that incorporates properties of bidirectional traffic.

JTP: An Energy-conscious Transport Protocol for Wireless Ad Hoc Networks

Within a recently developed low-power ad hoc network system, we present a transport protocol (JTP) whose goal is to reduce power consumption without trading off delivery requirements of applications. JTP has the following features: it is lightweight whereby end-nodes control in-network actions by encoding delivery requirements in packet headers; JTP enables applications to specify a range of reliability requirements, thus allocating the right energy budget to packets; JTP minimizes feedback control traffic from the destination by varying its frequency based on delivery requirements and stability of the network; JTP minimizes energy consumption by implementing in-network caching and increasing the chances that data retransmission requests from destinations "hit" these caches, thus avoiding costly source retransmissions; and JTP fairly allocates bandwidth among flows by backing off the sending rate of a source to account for in-network retransmissions on its behalf. Analysis and extensive simulations demonstrate the energy gains of JTP over one-size-fits-all transport protocols.