Structural Analysis of Network Traffic Flows

Network traffic arises from the superposition of Origin-Destination (OD) flows. Hence, a thorough understanding of OD flows is essential for modeling network traffic, and for addressing a wide variety of problems including traffic engineering, traffic matrix estimation, capacity planning, forecasting and anomaly detection. However, to date, OD flows have not been closely studied, and there is very little known about their properties. We present the first analysis of complete sets of OD flow timeseries, taken from two different backbone networks (Abilene and Sprint-Europe). Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we find that the set of OD flows has small intrinsic dimension. In fact, even in a network with over a hundred OD flows, these flows can be accurately modeled in time using a small number (10 or less) of independent components or dimensions. We also show how to use PCA to systematically decompose the structure of OD flow timeseries into three main constituents: common periodic trends, short-lived bursts, and noise. We provide insight into how the various constituents contribute to the overall structure of OD flows and explore the extent to which this decomposition varies over time.

An Independent-Connection Model for Traffic Matrices

A common assumption made in traffic matrix (TM) modeling and estimation is independence of a packet's network ingress and egress. We argue that in real IP networks, this assumption should not and does not hold. The fact that most traffic consists of two-way exchanges of packets means that traffic streams flowing in opposite directions at any point in the network are not independent. In this paper we propose a model for traffic matrices based on independence of connections rather than packets. We argue that the independent connection (IC) model is more intuitive, and has a more direct connection to underlying network phenomena than the gravity model. To validate the IC model, we show that it fits real data better than the gravity model and that it works well as a prior in the TM estimation problem. We study the model's parameters empirically and identify useful stability properties. This justifies the use of the simpler versions of the model for TM applications. To illustrate the utility of the model we focus on two such applications: synthetic TM generation and TM estimation. To the best of our knowledge this is the first traffic matrix model that incorporates properties of bidirectional traffic.